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#22
08-23-2007, 01:18 PM
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Re: Call or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Maybe. But is the payoff really worth it? Like is it really worth it to risk 25 times the pot just to see if he limped with AA or KK? I think the previous poster is absolutely right from an EV point of view you have to let this go. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I get you here. Yes, the pot is miniscule compared to your stack but you get the other guy's stack if you're right so the payoff is doubling your stack. The odds are virtually 1:1 so you need to be right 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Also you are forgetting that while the odds may be 1:1 (thats debatable in my opinion) but for argument's sake, can you honestly tell me that from an EV perspective it makes any sense to risk 500BB when you are not pot committed in any way and you have no read on either player? (I don't see how you can just assume or dismiss that the first player is not strong either because it seems like you are solely concentrating on the big blind.) A lot of players will flop a set and bet early position. My point is if any of these two have a J, you have to assume their kicker is a 4 or under. (thats a stretchy assumption) [/ QUOTE ] As far as odds, you said your stack was 25 times the size of the pot. So if villain has a much as you he will put in 25 times the size of the pot so your odds will be 26:25 which is slightly better than 1:1 but pretty close. For a call to be +EV, let's do some calculations but keep them simple. If he has a stone cold bluff or AA-QQ or TT, 99, etc, you will win 100% of the time. If he has Jx or xx, you will lose 100% of the time. So keeping it simple, it is +EV to call if 50% of the time he has a stone cold bluff or AA-QQ or TT, 99, etc. The reason I differentiated a tourney and a cash game is that the probability that this play is a stone cold bluff is much higher in a tourney than in a cash game. And the probability of playing AA-QQ like this is again much higher in a tourney. Of course for me to call this, I would need to be there at that moment and use my instincts but I can say with all honesty, my gut tells me even right now that this all-in is more likely a scare tactic than a shove with the nuts. 
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#23
08-23-2007, 01:49 PM
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Re: Call or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Maybe. But is the payoff really worth it? Like is it really worth it to risk 25 times the pot just to see if he limped with AA or KK? I think the previous poster is absolutely right from an EV point of view you have to let this go. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I get you here. Yes, the pot is miniscule compared to your stack but you get the other guy's stack if you're right so the payoff is doubling your stack. The odds are virtually 1:1 so you need to be right 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Also you are forgetting that while the odds may be 1:1 (thats debatable in my opinion) but for argument's sake, can you honestly tell me that from an EV perspective it makes any sense to risk 500BB when you are not pot committed in any way and you have no read on either player? (I don't see how you can just assume or dismiss that the first player is not strong either because it seems like you are solely concentrating on the big blind.) A lot of players will flop a set and bet early position. My point is if any of these two have a J, you have to assume their kicker is a 4 or under. (thats a stretchy assumption) [/ QUOTE ] As far as odds, you said your stack was 25 times the size of the pot. So if villain has a much as you he will put in 25 times the size of the pot so your odds will be 26:25 which is slightly better than 1:1 but pretty close. For a call to be +EV, let's do some calculations but keep them simple. If he has a stone cold bluff or AA-QQ or TT, 99, etc, you will win 100% of the time. If he has Jx or xx, you will lose 100% of the time. So keeping it simple, it is +EV to call if 50% of the time he has a stone cold bluff or AA-QQ or TT, 99, etc. The reason I differentiated a tourney and a cash game is that the probability that this play is a stone cold bluff is much higher in a tourney than in a cash game. And the probability of playing AA-QQ like this is again much higher in a tourney. Of course for me to call this, I would need to be there at that moment and use my instincts but I can say with all honesty, my gut tells me even right now that this all-in is more likely a scare tactic than a shove with the nuts. [/ QUOTE ] besides Jx, he may also have JK or JQ (some people limp with JK or JQ) which while doesn't have you drawing dead, you're pretty much way underdog. I just feel like the read isn't good enough and with one player behind you to make a call here.
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#25
08-23-2007, 03:45 PM
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Re: Call or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
Fold PreFlop If you make an arguement for playing them then you can never fold when you flop trips, otherwise what did you want a flopped boat, quads? [/ QUOTE ] I disagree with the generality of that statement...Its one thing if u hold pockets and you flop trips, its quite another when you flop trips in that fashion. (one in which its much more obvious to everyone that trips is out there). That being said, why would big blind push in that manner if he didn't have a J and he had one more person behind him?
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#26
08-23-2007, 04:24 PM
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Re: Call or Fold?
Easiest decision in the world.
Fold preflop. [ QUOTE ] All of saying is its not the best choice to limp with J4 here but its not the worse thing either. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it is the worst thing. It is far, far, far worse than calling off your whole stack on this flop. [ QUOTE ] I am merely arguing that limping in that situation with J4 (i wouldn't do it all the time) but once in a while is OK (obviously u fold to a 3X raise there) [/ QUOTE ] This is TERRIBLE. No other way to say it. [ QUOTE ] The other posters argument seems to be that it is NEVER OK to play J4. [/ QUOTE ] I can tell you this much... its never OK to open limp J4 on the button. OK, OK, maybe you could convolute some scenario where the stacks are 1000 bbs deep and the BB is a monkey (not a donkey, but an actual chimpanzee) that will bet any two cards and call any bet. But in any poker game you or I have ever played in limping J4 on the button is a huge mistake. In the long term, it really doesn't matter whether you call or fold this flop if you continue to "sometimes" open limp J4 on the button. Its a huge leak.
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#27
08-23-2007, 04:34 PM
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Re: Call or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
Easiest decision in the world. Fold preflop. [ QUOTE ] All of saying is its not the best choice to limp with J4 here but its not the worse thing either. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it is the worst thing. It is far, far, far worse than calling off your whole stack on this flop. [ QUOTE ] I am merely arguing that limping in that situation with J4 (i wouldn't do it all the time) but once in a while is OK (obviously u fold to a 3X raise there) [/ QUOTE ] This is TERRIBLE. No other way to say it. [ QUOTE ] The other posters argument seems to be that it is NEVER OK to play J4. [/ QUOTE ] I can tell you this much... its never OK to open limp J4 on the button. OK, OK, maybe you could convolute some scenario where the stacks are 1000 bbs deep and the BB is a monkey (not a donkey, but an actual chimpanzee) that will bet any two cards and call any bet. But in any poker game you or I have ever played in limping J4 on the button is a huge mistake. In the long term, it really doesn't matter whether you call or fold this flop if you continue to "sometimes" open limp J4 on the button. Its a huge leak. [/ QUOTE ] err i know one should not NORMALLY limp with J4 early position there... As i posted earlier if we change this example to J7 or J8 would that make you feel better? Lets change this example to J8 then. I think the principle of not calling still applies, correct?
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#28
08-23-2007, 04:40 PM
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Re: Call or Fold?
"I can tell you this much... its never OK to open limp J4 on the button."
What if you're in a tourney and theres only 3 players left with blinds ever so increasing (wherein you prob only have so many hands left to play). You would say you NEVER would limp with J4 early pos? NEVER is such a strong w0rd my friend.
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#29
08-23-2007, 04:45 PM
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Re: Call or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
err i know one should not NORMALLY limp with J4 early position there... [/ QUOTE ] One should NEVER limp with J4. Not open limp, not limping along, not on the button, not in early position. [ QUOTE ] As i posted earlier if we change this example to J7 or J8 would that make you feel better? [/ QUOTE ] No. You should NEVER open limp J8 on the button either. [ QUOTE ] Lets change this example to J8 then. I think the principle of not calling still applies, correct? [/ QUOTE ] Not calling PREFLOP... yes, that principal still applies! You are thinking like a fish by focusing on the all-in bet and not being able to see the real leak in the hand you posted.
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#30
08-23-2007, 04:47 PM
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Re: Call or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
"I can tell you this much... its never OK to open limp J4 on the button." What if you're in a tourney and theres only 3 players left with blinds ever so increasing (wherein you prob only have so many hands left to play). You would say you NEVER would limp with J4 early pos? NEVER is such a strong w0rd my friend. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not a tournament player, I'll let one of them answer for sure. But I'm pretty sure a short stacked situation with increasing blinds would make it a bigger mistake to limp J4, not a smaller one.
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