NLTRN $11: facing donkbet on A-high flop with KK

[TNixon]

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you only have to be successful 44.44% of the time to show a profit

[/ QUOTE ]
Successful at what? Folding out an ace?

I would guess you're going to get any ace to fold exactly 0% of the time by minraising. And that includes A2. Maybe *some* opponents are going to fold an ace *sometimes* to a minraise (or any raise, for that matter, most people seem more than happy to get it in here with A2 or A3), but nowhere near 44%.

If "success" is just having the best hand, then as other people have pointed out (and you seem to have agreed), minraising is the wrong move here. Raising does get a little more value from some hands we're beating, but loses value against a whole lot more (because they'll just fold rather than bet again on the turn), and practically never folds out a hand that's beating us.

[jay_shark]

Tnixon , I never said that a mini-raise will get him to fold an ace , you did .

There are other hands in his range other than an ace . If he has a middle pair , you don't mind if he calls and if you're re-raised you know where you stand .

I don't think a flop raise is a bad idea if you expect him to call you with worse hands . He's making a mistake if he calls with middle pair which is a good thing for you .