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Old 11-27-2007, 12:59 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

I dunno why everyone's so extreme with their opinions on this. These spots are difficult to calculate, and it's probably pretty close.

I figure if you shove, you're probably surviving ~60% of the time. So 40% of the time you cost yourself $320, or $128 on average. Earlier in the tournament this would be about 3900 worth of chips, but once we pass thru the money the value of each chip goes down about 18% (due to money distribution). So you need to have a +cEV of 4930 to make this neutral.

With 60% equity in a 34400 pot you're just good enough to shove, profiting 5640. But this is an optimistic figure, since it assumes nobody wakes up with a monster. Factor that in and it's very borderline.

So I think it's sufficient to say that this is really close.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty much it, and BB has you slightly covered on top of that so he won't fold anything you want him to. I prob shrug and make a close/dumb feeling fold because the next hand will be 9 handed and I'll have the button.
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