UFC 65 11/18/06

[swope]

* UFC 65 11/18/06

First off, there is a flourishing UFC 65 discussion already taking place here , but 99% of it is just people arguing their case for GSP v Hughes, and since BOF just released nearly full fight lines, I wanted to start with a clean slate.

Performify; if you want to merge this thread into the other, I cant fault you for it, but in the interests of focused discussion Im starting this one.

Ok;

Hughes v GSP
-130 - +110

Im not going to beat this horse as its dead and starting to fall apart. Im picking Hughes because everything about his fight style is perfectly suited to please UFC judges. I see GSP dominating the first round then barely winning the second, and losing the next 3 to takedowns and ground damage. Thats just me, thats how I see it, follow your dreams.

5 units on Hughes

Sylvia v Monson
-260 - +220

Its so easy to imagine Monson winning this, because once he takes the fight to the ground its seriously over for Timmay, but watch how badly Monson dealt with PDP's totally laughable standup and its easy to see why Im picking Timmay. 5 rounds of Timmay backing up and jabbing and generally messing up Monson's face is what I anticipate, although no one will cheer louder than me if Monson wins.

2.6 units on Timmay

Vera v Mir
-350 - +290

Vera already made his game plan public and its the one I was hoping to hear; hes going to chop down Mir's leg. One sided ass whippery from Vera shall ensue, most likely.

5 units on Vera

Sakara v McFedries
-550 - +450
Sakara should win this but at -550, I plan on using this fight only to spice up my parlays.

Stevenson v Mishima
-260 - +220
I like Mishima on this one. Even if you argue that their jits is equal (and I would never make that argument), Mishima has fought such higher caliber fighters that you have to give him the edge.

1 unit on Mishima.

Diaz v Tibau
-550 - +450
Yeah, Diaz will most likely finally get a solid W with this one. Who knows tho.. Hard to argue against putting half a unit against Diaz no matter who he fights these days. Still and all, Ill sit this one out. No real value.

Hardonk v Sherman-300 - +250

I really dont know anything about these fighters.

Ramirez v Irvin
-135 - +115
Not a huge fan of either of these fighters. Put a gun to my head and Ill pick Irvin, shrug.

betonfighting.com also offers fight day parlays on MMA events, which comes in very handy and makes up for some of the issues attendent with doing business with betcris.. I plan on doing some hedging with the following parlays:

.25 units on GSP/Monson/Diaz/Vera/Sakara
.25 units on GSP/Timmay/Diaz/Vera/Sakara
.25 units on Hughes/Monson/Diaz/Vera/Sakara
.25 units on Hughes/Timmay/Diaz/Vera/Sakara
.25 units on Diaz/Mir/Sakara

Wont have the math to back these up until fight day but I believe any one of these will return something around 2.5 - 5 units.

[Performify]

Heh, i started a new thread about thirty seconds after you posted this one, Swope.

Merging mine in:

Lines literally just released

<u>Brandon Vera vs Frank Mir</u>
105 Brandon Vera -350
106 Frank Mir +320

<u>Antoni Hardonk vs Sherman Pendergarst</u>
107 Antoni Hardonk -285
108 Sherman Pendergarst +265

<u>Alessio Sakara vs Drew McFedries</u>
109 Alessio Sakara -505
110 Drew McFedries +455

<u>Hector Ramirez vs James Irvin</u>
111 Hector Ramirez -138
112 James Irvin +128

<u>Joe Stevenson vs Dokonjonosuke Mishima</u>
113 Joe Stevenson -226
114 Dokonjonosuke Mishima +206

<u>Tim Sylvia vs Jeff Monson</u>
103 Tim Sylvia -256
104 Jeff Monson +236

<u>Matt Hughes vs Georges St. Pierre</u>
101 Matt Hughes -130
102 Georges St. Pierre +120

<u>Nick Diaz vs Gleison Tibau</u>
115 Nick Diaz -500
116 Gleison Tibau +450

[swope]

Much obliged! Good to compare BOF lines with Pinny.. some interesting arb opps look like they might come up, especially with Mir..

[Performify]

Your first impressions are exactly the same as mine on the big ones:
I agree I like the Mishima underdog play. Vera and Sakara are probably both value plays as well.

I will probably have a small play on Monson.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
Your first impressions are exactly the same as mine on the big ones:
I agree I like the Mishima underdog play. Vera and Sakara are probably both value plays as well.

I will probably have a small play on Monson.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a rough time seeing the value in Vera. -350 seems just too poor of odds to me.

[goodsamaritan]

This has ntohing to do with betting, but I was gonna root for Monson until I realized how much of a nutjob he is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0slSsdRzroU&amp;eurl=

Tim Sylvia looks like Captain America in terms of marketability when compared to Monson.

[Performify]

Monson's pretty clearly an anarcho-socialist from that, but that's not exactly a nutjob philosophy.

Sadly I don't disagree with much of what he says anti-corporate and anti-govt (and anti-kerry/bush)

[swope]

Honestly the value in Vera is that Mir absolutely suuuuuuuucks these days. Your point is well taken tho.

[swope]

[ QUOTE ]
This has ntohing to do with betting, but I was gonna root for Monson until I realized how much of a nutjob he is

[/ QUOTE ]

Monson's politics are.. well.. a bit questionable, but I prefer his to the opposite extremes.

But I will always adore Monson for this; when PDP complained that Monson applied an illegal can opener submission when Monson was grabbing the back of PDP's neck to work out of his guard, Monson's response was to strip butthole naked and walk around the ADCC auditorium, demanding justice.

I will always [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Monson for that sh!t.

[Performify]

-350 would be winning 78% of the time.

I think Vera wins this fight closer to 85% - 90% of the time, which makes it a value play.

The line is large, so its not going to be a load up, but I think its worth a play.