UFC UFN Thread

[TTChamp]

I know there was a UFC thread earlier this week, but I wanted to start one dedicated to Tuesday's UFC fight night. Perf, lock this one if you had plans to use an old thread for the fight night.

I'm new to UFC and MMA so all my bets are .2 unit bets. This is my first time betting on UFC so I have no history.

I took the following:

Tito -777 vs Shamrock
Josh Haynes -121 vs Rory Singer

I'm also eyeing Thiago Alves +128 vs John Allesio

Swope and Perf...I would appreciate your thoughts on all fights.

[Performify]

New thread is fine.

As I recommended in the old one: max bet on Ortiz at anything under -2000.

With the -777 line and max of $2000 that's a lot. But its very much worth it. Free, free, free money. Ortiz wins this fight at least nine out of ten times (-900) and I'd actually handicap it at -1900 (95% win rate).

Rest of the card nothing really stands out. Hamil is probably worth a unit or two at under -250, but Seth Petruzelli is no slouch. Unfortunately we haven't seen Hamil that much but he's such a strong wrestler.

For me, i'm wrapping up everything on Ortiz and won't bother with the rest of the card. 99.999 confidence level is too juicy to pass up, even at -777.

[sollog]

Good luck on the Ortiz bridgejumper...

I was thinking about betting Alessio if got down to 125/130
Alessio is a much more experienced fighter(started MMA when he was 19). He's 11-3 in about the same time period as Alves went 8-3. I also like that in his last 14 fights (dating back 5/6 years) Alessio hasn't been stopped. I think that's a very important factor to consider when handicapping MMA. He's also never been knocked out or TKOd in his career. His only losses have been decisions and submissions (which happened more than 5 years ago. I'll probably stay away from this though...not familiar enough with these two.

Haynes/Singer ... who knows...

Only fight I like is Macdonald +256 vs Ed Herman. I think this is practically a 50/50 fight...(I'm no expert by any means however) I do know Macdonald generally has great cardio and his loss to Kalib Starnes he took on short notice. Also, Herman lost to Joe Doerksen while Macdonald beat him in the fourth of a five rounder.

Different card, but I'd much rather bridge jump with Shawn Sherk at -321 ... I can't imagine Florian having a better chance vs Sherk than Shamrock does vs Ortiz.

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]

Different card, but I'd much rather bridge jump with Shawn Sherk at -321 ... I can't imagine Florian having a better chance vs Sherk than Shamrock does vs Ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I don't believe you have seen either of the 2 fights, or any fight either fighter has had in the last 5 years (referring to Ortiz and Shamrock).

I definately like Sherk in the fight, but I don't like the line. Sherk is dominant...but Florian is a reasonable matchup...significantly better than some standup fighter that Sherk is usually put against (and dominates). However, he beat Diaz...and I don't think Florian has anything on Diaz, so Sherk is going to win. However, Florian is certainly a lot more capable of submitting Sherk than Shamrock is capable of doing anything to Tito.

I agree with Perf...Tito is the only worthwile bet on this card.

[Recliner]

jmillerdls,

The things that worry me about Florian are that he has a reach advantage, can submit Sherk, but the biggest worry is that he likes to and is good at throwing elbows. A decent elbow will end this fight. This fight doesn't jump out at me as having good value on either side. With UFC I'm only looking for lines with great value to bet on.

I'm surprised so many people are doubting Tito in his fight. He wins only 95% of the time??? Give me a break. 99+% of the time. The only thing Shamrock is better at is running his mouth. A more interesting wager would be to see if the fight will go past 2 minutes (It won't).

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised so many people are doubting Tito in his fight. He wins only 95% of the time??? Give me a break. 99+% of the time. The only thing Shamrock is better at is running his mouth. A more interesting wager would be to see if the fight will go past 2 minutes (It won't).

[/ QUOTE ]

/agreed

I'd probably hang a -1900 Ortiz line if I were booking this fight, I meant. I think at Shamrock +1650 or whatever, you'd see enough people taking the super longshot and few people loading up on Ortiz as to make some money.

In reality, as you point out, this is the closest thing to a "lock" that exists in sports betting. There is literally almost no way for Shamrock to win this fight, in reality. He can't hurt Tito standing. He certainly can't submit Ortiz. He can't take Ortiz down. Probably the only way Shamrock would possibly have to win this fight would be a very very lucky knee to Ortiz as Ortiz is shooting. And even if he stuns Tito with a big knee I'd still give Ortiz an 80% chance of recovering and winning the fight even if he's stunned and on his back.

But Tito's smarter than to put himself in that position. As with the last fight, he's not going to just shoot across the cage out of control, he's going to strike, then clench, then takedown from the clench, then walk Shammy to the fence, then come the elbows, all to avoid any miracle attempt from Shamrock.

My entire available sports betting bankroll is tied up on this fight across *ahem* various sites.
No arb hunting for me until Wednesday...

I would literally bet this line (-777ish) if the rules were such that every round of the fight were started in a wrestling Referee's position with Ortiz on the bottom.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
Alessio hasn't been stopped.

[/ QUOTE ]By accident, I caught his first fight after the Diego loss on this hi-def channel that oddly shows MMA at random. I expected Alessio to kill his opponent given that I thought he won the Diego fight. However, Alessio looked awful and he was almost beat.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably the only way Shamrock would possibly have to win this fight would be a very very lucky knee to Ortiz as Ortiz is shooting.

[/ QUOTE ]Does Shamrock have a big knee and does it give him a "punchers chance"? He nailed Kimo awesomely. However, I think Kimo was pretty washed up by then but I dont remember.

Also, who has Tito beaten in the last 6 years who would be considered world class talent? Note - I am not arguing against Tito. Just looking for info.

[null]

Be careful if you bet this at Sports Interaction. I just called them and they said that draws are considered a loss.

[Performify]

No, Shamrock doesn't have a big anything anymore. He's five years past being able to be even remotely competitive in the UFC and he's fifteen years past his prime.

Shamrock

Shamrock hasn't looked good since 1996. He lost to Dan Severn at UFC 9 in May 1996 and then left fighting. He returned in 2000 to Pride, fought there twice in 2000 and went 1-1: his win was over a very mediocre (and that's being kind) Alexander Otsuka who sports a 3-12 MMA record. His loss was to an OK Kazuyuki Fujia who has beaten some people but no one big.

Shamrock fought once in 2001, in WMMAA (World Mixed Martial Arts Association, in Atlantic City) in another feature bout with yet another punching bag opponent: Sam Adkins, current record 7-17-2. That brings Shamrock to 2-1 since his return to the MMA in 2000.

In early 2002 Shamrock then steps to Pride for a big payday with fellow UFC-veteran Don Frye, and loses a split decision. In late 2002 he steps in to fight Tito for the first time at UFC 40 and gets murdered in three rounds. Tito just abuses him for three solid rounds until the fight is stopped between rounds because Shamrock has taken two solid rounds of punishment.

Shamrock then takes another year and a half off, fighting a fellow has-been Kimo at UFC 48 in June 2004. Ken does drop him with a knee. Shamrock is now 3-2 since his return in 2000.

Shamrock then gets thrown to the wolves at Rich Franklin's UFC coming out party at the first Ultimate Fighter finale in April 2005. Franlkin demolishes him in the first round.

Shamrock then fought in Pride 30 against Sakuraba and got smoked in the first round. Then nine months later, UFC 61, Ortiz drops Shamrock in the first round. 3-4 since his return in 2000, with wins over terrible opponents and losses to anyone with remotely any talent.

Ortiz

Just looking at since 2000, as with Kenny:

April 2000 @ UFC 25 Ortiz beats Wanderlei Silva by UD. Then beat Yuki Kondo at UFC 29 in late 2000. Then beats Evan Tanner in Feb 2001 at UFC 30 and Elvis Sinosic four months later at UFC 32, and Vladimir Matyushenko at UFC 33 in September 2001.

Ortiz then takes a break, returns in November 2002 to beatdown Kenny at UFC 40.

Then Ortiz fights Randy Couture and loses a UD in Sept 2003. Chuck Liddell takes the belt from Randy, and Ortiz fights Liddell at UFC 47 in April 2004. Ortiz makes the mistake of trying to stand with Liddell exclusively, and gets KO'd.

Six months later, Ortiz fights up-and-comer who was then undefeated (5-0 at the time) Patrick Cote (who you just saw fight on this week's TUF - the training partner for GSP, etc) at UFC 50 and wins a UD. Then four months later, UFC 51 in Feb 2005 Tito beats Vitor Belfort.

Tito's record since 2000 at this point is 8-2. Ortiz then gets in a contract dispute with Dana White and steps away for over a year. He returns at UFC 59 in April 2006 and wins a split decision over Forrest Griffin, showing a bit of ring rust and limited a little from recovering from a knee injury. Three months later, July 2006 UFC 61, Ortiz drops Shamrock in just over a minute.

Of those, Wanderlei is certainly world-class. Elvis Sinosic, Evan Tanner, Forrest Griffin all certainly top-tier fighters. Vitor Belfort and Patric Cote both interesting case studies: Belfort was 12-4 when he fought Ortiz, and was considered a world class fighter, but including the loss to Randy Couture right before Tito, Belfort lost four of his last six fights bringing his record to 14-7. Cote likewise was undefeated when he fought Tito at 5-0 and was a very strong up-and-comer. Ortiz was his first loss, and then he came back three months later for a win in TKO 19, but then got back in to the UFC with a loss to Joe Doersken at UFC 52, another loss to Chris Lebel at Ultimate Fight Night in August 2005, bringing his record to 6-3. Cote has fought twice in 2006, winning both, including one over a solid Jason MacDonald. Yuki Kondo that Ortiz beat at UFC 29 is also a solid Pancrase fighter with a 45-18-6 MMA record.

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I've seen video and several photos from inside Shamrock's camp. Kenny looks terrible - his face is haggard, he's lost muscle mass, and in the video he's still as slow as he's been in the last several years.

Yes, there is a very, very, very remote chance that Shamrock can with this fight. But I would honestly handicap that at well less than a 5% chance (probably a 1%-2% chance at best), which makes this current line tremendously +EV.