TUF 3 Finale - Ultimate Fighting Lines

[Mac]

I know we have some MMA fans on the board. I wanted to get some discussion going on the current Pinnacle lines on the TUF 3 Finale this Saturday. I really like Bisping, Ed Herman, and Kalib Starnes but I'm not sure there's a lot of value in the lines.

FWIW, I see Bisping keeping it standing up and putting a beating on Haynes. Unless Kendall Grove has incredibly improved his sprawl, I see Herman being able to effectively ground and pound his way to victory. My reluctance to bet these fights has a lot to do with Grove and Haynes working with Tito Ortiz and Team Punishment out in Big Bear to prepare for the fight. They'll be in great condition and likely come in with a solid gameplan. It's enough to give me pause.

Kalib is as close to a lock as an MMA fight can be (it'll likely be a takedown and beatdown/submission victory). However, in this sport, there can always be some freak cut or injury that changes the expected outcome. So Kalib at -600 is also a tough line. Anyway, I'd like to put some money down, but these lines aren't making it easy. Any thoughts?

- Mac


Keith Jardine vs Wilson Gouveia
Keith Jardine -405
Wilson Gouveia +365

Matt Hamill vs Jesse Forbes
Matt Hamill -475
Jesse Forbes +435

Wes Combs vs Mike Nickels
Wes Combs -470
Mike Nickels +430

The Ultimate Fighter Final: TUF Light-Heavyweight Final
Michael Bisping vs Josh Haynes
Michael Bisping -525
Josh Haynes +475

The Ultimate Fighter Final: TUF Lightweights
Sam Stout vs Kenny Florian
Sam Stout -126
Kenny Florian +116

The Ultimate Fighter Final: TUF Middleweight Final
Ed Herman vs Kendall Grove
Ed Herman -203
Kendall Grove +185

The Ultimate Fighter Final: TUF Middleweights
Kalib Starnes vs Danny Abaddi
Kalib Starnes -600
Danny Abaddi +540

Rory Singer vs Ross Pointon
Rory Singer -280
Ross Pointon +260

Luigi Fioravanti vs Solomon Hutcherson
Luigi Fioravanti -179
Solomon Hutcherson +169

[Performify]

I was really disappointed when all the lines hit.

I'm a very active MMA bettor, and I'll probably stay away from most of these.

Most of these guys are just too untested and unknown to lay anything serious on.

Herman was supposedly really well regarded, and he looked like crap in his last TUF fight.

Bisping is the only fight that I have supreme confidence in.

Hamill looked so bad his last time out that I'd certainly stay away there. Not sure how much was his injury and how much was terrible technique. The way he dropped his hands in his TUF fight would have resulted in a quick first round KO from a decent opponent.

[Freerollin`]

Are all these fights going to be televised tomorrow night on Spike?

[shandrakor]

Not all of them. The main card features:
Sam Stout Vs. Kenny Florian
Michael Bisping Vs. Josh Haynes
Kendall Grove Vs. Ed Herman
Keith Jardine Vs. Wilson Gouveia

Depending on how long those go, they'll fill the remainder of the 3 hours with whatever undercard matches they feel like showing. Personally, I'm really hoping to see Kalib kick the snot out of Danny, and I'd like to see Matt fight again to get a better sense of whether he's really "all that."

[Iplayragstoo]

I thought only the last 4 fighters were going to fight, not anyone else from the show...when did they announce this????

[shandrakor]

The full card is listed on ufc.tv. They've got a 3 hour show to fill, and since you can never be certain how long the scheduled live fights are going to last, you always need an undercard to fill out the time "lost" to knockouts.

Basically, what we have here is a UFC on free TV instead of on PPV, with the two finals matches as the highlights, instead of a couple belt fights.

[Hoya]

Bisping is a great value, as Haynes is absolutely horrible. I'd bet him up to -800, at least. Not much value in any of the other lines.

Danny actually isn't too bad a fighter, I don't think - but his real weight is 155, not 185.