Pirateboy's NCAAF ML Dogs Experiment - W9

[pirateboy]

Great week finally. 7-6 +13u

YTD 27-49 +.9u

[knicknut]

[ QUOTE ]
Great week finally. 7-6 +13u

YTD 27-49 +.9u

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious if you have a comment to refute my last point. Are you considering something that I did not include in my analysis?

[MyTurn2Raise]

pirateboy, are you betting a straight unit across the board, or is this kelly, or what?

[pirateboy]

Straight across the board, and yes, I know I should probably kelly.

knicknut, I like what you had to say, but I really don't think there is that big of a standard deviation amongst each team at each half point.

[knicknut]

I don't quite understand what you mean... are you saying the difference in standard deviations can't be that big?

My question is then how do you account for why sportsbooks make different moneylines for different spreads? Why not just link them one to one? There must be something they're taking into account (that you're not).

Also, have you backtested the strategy with out of sample trials to refute it? OK, X point favorites won Y percent of the time, but do X point favorites with moneylines above the breakeven (that you are willing to bet) still win at least Y percent of the time?

If this is just your gut feeling and you're having fun with it, fine. I still don't think this is +EV as a rote strategy, though, as you're just betting against adjustments the books make (modifying the ML for games of the same spread). You're pretty much making a punt that they're doing it in the wrong direction.

Good luck.

[pirateboy]

Missed the earliest games (Wyo/CSU, Miss St/Ole Miss, Neb/Col) due to work. But, 2 plays so far:

Wyoming +150 (need +127)
Texas A&M +235 (need +230)

Boise will probably be a play, but playing it closer to gametime.

[pirateboy]

Saturday:

Maryland +110 (need +107)
Tennessee +130 (need +121)
Utah +170 (need +153)
Alabama +175 (need +153)
Georgia Tech +155 (need +150)
Utah State +120 (need +116)
SJSU +145 (need +142)
Virginia +140 (need +135)