UFC 63 9/23/06

[swope]

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Thats how I see it, yeah. Its really hard to accurately guage the value of betting against Swick tho, because he hasnt faced ANYONE of Crow's pedigree. Im going to drop some cash on Crow tho. War elbows.

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I agree with this. While Crow hasn't been all that successful against the top tier, he has fought them.

Also, Crow clearly has a great chin, which is what he used to fatigue Franklyn in the championship fight. Who knows about Swick...he has been knocked out by Leben for what its worth.

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excellent, excellent points.

[Performify]

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No matter what the outcome is re Hughes v Penn, I dont think either one of our analyises can be considered at fault.

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You're the man, Swope, and its good to have you and your considerable MMA expertise around here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[jmillerdls]

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Penn is another Horn as I see it. Lots of smoke, mirrors, and mystique.

I think Hughes wins this fight 5 times out of 6.

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wow...just wow. While I think there are lots of valid opinions in this thread, and on other forums (MMA), I haven't heard anyone suggest anything as outrageous as this. Hard for me to imagine this coming from someone objective or not biased in some way.

Either a HUGE Hughes fan, or just really trying to help yourself be confident in your bet.

I think Hughes wins the fight more times than not as well...but 5/6 is insanity, and to suggest Penn is Jeremy Horn is ridiculous. Horn is not well rounded at all. He contains no wrestling or striking abilities, both of which Penn is above average at.

Penn is definately flakey, but he's not just smoke and mirrors. I bet you couldn't even get Hughes to say something like that...or Pulver, or Uno, or Din Thomas, or...

[swope]

ive watched every minute of every one of penn's fights that are available. in 2001-2004 he was top talent, but as the field matured, he simply hasnt grown as fast as it has.

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Penn is definately flakey, but he's not just smoke and mirrors. I bet you couldn't even get Hughes to say something like that...or Pulver, or Uno, or Din Thomas, or...

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I didnt say he was just smoke and mirrors. I said that just like Horn, hes one of those fighters who didnt do much real fighting in recent years but has this huge bandwagon that flips out and clutches the pearls when one implies that the fighter in question is hardly prepared to contend for the friggin belt.

i mean come on, penn's entire presense in the ufc right now is a basically a gimmick, just like horns is. what has penn done exactly in the last 2 years to warrant a title shot at hughes, other than sign a 3 fight contract?

i will have absolutely no qualms with admitting im wrong if penn takes out hughes, and im sure we will have seen a legendary fight if it happens, probably worth every cent i lost, but acting like i have to be a hughes nuthugger to imply that penn's reputation is insanely inflated is just a bit silly, considering how little hes done in the last 2 years to earn it.

[TRBNGR]

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Next, how the hell is Swick the favorite? That line is way off.

Evans will not throw Lambert around. Lambert is a very good wrestler as well, and his ground skills are significantly better than Evans. Evans wants this fight on the feet, Lambert wants it on the ground.

Pulver is going to destroy this guy...the only question is whether it will take more or less than 60 seconds.

Abbadi fighting on a PPV is embarrassing for everyone involved. Hopefully this will be the last we see of him.

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The swick line was the biggest surprise but I'm not too sure it's that off. I think the stand-up game of Swick is being slightly undervalued by the public, he basically rocked Joe Riggs with a solid high kick before catching him in a "swickatine" [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Crow on the otherhand is a good striker but slightly overrated, he has won alot of fights via cuts with those brutal elbows (cuts), not pure knockouts. I have Swick as around a 53% favorite.

As far as Pulver and Danny "Get Me a Sandwich" Abbaddi, couldn't agree more.

Have to disagree strongly on the Evans / Lambert fight. I really didnt think Lambert had some great takedown defense, which he'll need vs Evans. The only strongpoint in Evans' game is his ability to take it to the ground. I'm having a hard time not seeing this fight as 15 minutes on manhugging with Evans on top. Zzzz.....

[Mac]

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But then again, I'm still of the opinion that the Penn/GSP fight should have been a draw at worst, given that the first round should have been scored 10-8.

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Performity, great analysis as always, but you had to have money on Penn that fight to think it was 10-8. GSP's face was a mess, but that damage came a finger to the eye and getting clipped in the nose. He won the round, but I can't see how it could be 10-8.

I'm a fan of Penn's, but like I said in a previous thread, I have Hughes at -152 and am expecting 5 round decision. BJ is very dangerous, but, compared to Matt, I don't think he has the same motivation to be in outstanding condition. I think he will tire and be thrown all over the ring.

- Mac

[Performify]

Full picks are up on my blog, specifically here:
http://performify.com/2006/09/ufc-63...edictions.html

its honestly too long to post it all over here. I kinda go off on Penn / Hughes.

Here are the picks - if you want to read the writeups click through to the blog, its too much work to reformat for uBB right now:

Summary of Picks ranked in order of expected value
Tyson Griffin -600 : 6 units to win 1 units
Jason Lambert +182 : 1 unit to win 1.82 units
Roger Huerta -575 : 2.875 units to win .5 units
Melvin Guillard -154 : 1.54 units to win 1 unit
B.J. Penn +186 : 1 unit to win 1.86 units *
Mike Swick -133 : 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Jorge Gurgel -620 : 3.1 units to win .5 unit
Jens Pulver -672 : 3.36 units to win .5 unit

Total wagered: 20.25 units to win 8.18 units

* = if you're not on the arb: for those following the arb, i recommend 100% layover on Penn by betting the amount you stand to win on Hughes at the earlier price we locked in at on Penn at +186 now, so if Hughes wins you break even, if Penn wins you win.

on the larger fights, if you don't have the bankroll to withstand laying the large units, I recommend at least considering laying to win a half-unit on Tyson Griffin and to win a half-unit on Huerta, and laying off Gurgel and Pulver. Or cutting those two fights down to quarter units, 1/10th units, whatever.


Past three UFC results: UFC 62: 1-0 +10 units) (only one pick: Forrest Griffin, 24.2 units to win 10 units, win), UFC 61: 4-4, +1.07 units. UFC 60: 6-3, +3.2671 units. You can find links to each round of picks on the blog writeup, or by searching this forum.

[Performify]

Oh, and I'll apologize for me and mine moving the lines across the board (except for Penn). [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Lambert, Guillard, Huerta, all the lines moved pretty quickly after I (and those immediately following) came in. The rest upticked but slowly.

Not huge moves, still same units recommended. Not sure if its just Pinny's normal automated temporary reaction to a quick influx, or if we crossed their thresholds for a permanent tick. You'll know in a couple hours if the new lines are sticky or not.

Penn didn't budge, which leads me to believe that there's quite a bit more money on Hughes than Penn as expected.

I didn't expect the biggest favorites to move much, there aren't that many people loading up on them with the huge lines compared to those taking the "hey 6:1 underdog, neat" approach - which while occasionally valid, isn't going to work well with the huge mismatches on this card.

Overall the only thing to worry about would be the value getting bet out of Lambert, but I don't see too much of that happening: but if it drops consider going "to win one unit" on him instead of risking a unit.

[Hoya]

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In Penn v. Machida, I think both fighters looked like crap and agree with swope that it was a yawm. In each round they would have like 30 seconds of action and 4 minutes and 30 seconds of a tie up. I will say that Penn landed a bunch of nice shots in those 30 seconds and I think probably should have won. But neither fighter impressed me.

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Keep in mind that Lyoto fights at 205, and BJ should probably be fighting at 155 . . .

Anyway, if i was confident BJ was going to come into this fight in shape, I'd put him at about 60% to win. Since I'm not, I'll say 40%.

Edit - Horn and Penn? Not alike. At all. Horn loses to every good fighter he faces, except one lucky win over Chuck. BJ is much more talented than him, and it isn't close. Their styles aren't particularly similar either. And BJ gets way more hype (and he deserves it). So ... not similar.

[Fhil Ivey]

The argument that Matt Hughes really wants to avenge this loss should be ignored. BJ penn is just as motivated to get the belt as is matt hughes to keep it. And to everyone that didn't see "UFC 63 Countdown" on Spike TV you can see how Matt Hughes lost. He got hit in the face that rocked him through the whole fight. That's why he never defended himself while on his back, Giving Penn an easy opportunity for the choke. He was stunned the whole time.

Matt hughes won't stand up with Penn this time. He's an idiot if he does. Penn has a much stronger stand up than Hughes. In fact Hughes has no striking ability. How many people has he knocked out?? Zero.

I'm hoping that Hughes will go straight for the takedowns and never give penn the opportunity to strike. Hopefully Penn gasses out giving matt hughes the decision.

Anyways, I plan to arb this fight.I put 1k on hughes at -164 how much am I supposed to put on Penn at +184 for a free fight?