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  #1  
Old 11-26-2007, 08:48 PM
Bonified Bonified is offline
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Default 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

On the bubble, $50 rebuy. Hero is 28/28 in chips.

$50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (1000/2000)
9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: xxx (37403 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero (15135 in chips)
Seat 5: xxx (17570 in chips)
Seat 6: xxx (72262 in chips)
Seat 7: xxx (59320 in chips)
Seat 8: xxx (19475 in chips)
Seat 9: Villain (93182 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind 1000
xxx: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qd Ad]
[3 folds]
Villain: raises 3000 to 5000
[ fold ]
Hero ???

But ... while pondering this, you notice that a player has busted out on another table. Now what ?

I have already worked this out to my satisfaction but would be interested to hear views.
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  #2  
Old 11-26-2007, 08:51 PM
TonyG_ TonyG_ is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

Nice title, now go all in cuz u aint never scared!
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  #3  
Old 11-26-2007, 09:09 PM
TheNewf TheNewf is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

This one I really want to shove but I don't think you can do it profitably
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  #4  
Old 11-26-2007, 09:55 PM
erocplayer erocplayer is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

if the villian has been raising liberally since you got close to the bubble, i shove. even if he's pushing only a little hard and raising something like, {22+, ATo+, A8s+, KJo+, JTs+} then you're about %55 to win.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.673% 50.25% 03.43% 131639052 8973890.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 46.327% 42.90% 03.43% 112395680 8973890.00 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }

even if he's not opening that wide, you desperately need chips if you're going to do anything impressive in this tournament. true, you'll be in LP soon enough and can try to steal, but i'd prefer to flip for a dblup then grind for tiny bits here and there.
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  #5  
Old 11-26-2007, 09:58 PM
omg im l337 omg im l337 is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

There is 7k in the pot if I counted correctly, and you're a favorite against his range. This is a shove.
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  #6  
Old 11-26-2007, 10:23 PM
jordankickz jordankickz is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

I would never fold here
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  #7  
Old 11-27-2007, 08:57 AM
Bonified Bonified is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

Interesting range of responses. I thought this one might polarise opinion.

What actually happened was I thought that because the other guy had busted before me, I was good for 27th, so I shoved. Villain had 97hh and flopped a flush. I'm like "oh well at least I get the cash ... " [sees 28th in Lobby] "skjdfnkvnv skjdnksn jdfnvkvmdn fvkfjdnd,mf vfv". So that was a lesson learned. But when I worked it out, I think it's still a shove anyway, or at least, for it to be a shove, we need to be 57% against his range if the BB folds, let's call it 60% just in case the BB wakes up with something huge. And I can't construct a sensible open-raising range that includes 97s but is > 40% against AQs. Frankly in the villain's position I would have been tempted to raise with any 2, and I think a lot of other players would too.

Without going through the whole calculation, 27th is $320, the total prize pool $46,150 and there are 1.458 million chips in play. My basic premise is that if we make the money, this is worth $320 + (our chips / total chips) * (prize pool - (27 * 320)). Given that even if we call and win, we'll only have 2.5% of the chips in play, I think that chip EV ~ $ EV after dishing out the $320s. The real question is, is this assumption valid ? I see no reason why it isn't, and I've done some Monte Carlo simulation this morning that backs it up too.
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  #8  
Old 11-27-2007, 09:35 AM
Yoshi63 Yoshi63 is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

I dunno why everyone's so extreme with their opinions on this. These spots are difficult to calculate, and it's probably pretty close.

I figure if you shove, you're probably surviving ~60% of the time. So 40% of the time you cost yourself $320, or $128 on average. Earlier in the tournament this would be about 3900 worth of chips, but once we pass thru the money the value of each chip goes down about 18% (due to money distribution). So you need to have a +cEV of 4930 to make this neutral.

With 60% equity in a 34400 pot you're just good enough to shove, profiting 5640. But this is an optimistic figure, since it assumes nobody wakes up with a monster. Factor that in and it's very borderline.

So I think it's sufficient to say that this is really close.
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  #9  
Old 11-27-2007, 12:59 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: 50r bubble I aint never scared neither

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno why everyone's so extreme with their opinions on this. These spots are difficult to calculate, and it's probably pretty close.

I figure if you shove, you're probably surviving ~60% of the time. So 40% of the time you cost yourself $320, or $128 on average. Earlier in the tournament this would be about 3900 worth of chips, but once we pass thru the money the value of each chip goes down about 18% (due to money distribution). So you need to have a +cEV of 4930 to make this neutral.

With 60% equity in a 34400 pot you're just good enough to shove, profiting 5640. But this is an optimistic figure, since it assumes nobody wakes up with a monster. Factor that in and it's very borderline.

So I think it's sufficient to say that this is really close.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty much it, and BB has you slightly covered on top of that so he won't fold anything you want him to. I prob shrug and make a close/dumb feeling fold because the next hand will be 9 handed and I'll have the button.
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