200NL - AQs - Multiway Pot With 2p2er

[pterodactyl_]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($377.80)
SB ($181.20)
BB ($359.20)
UTG ($106.40)
UTG+1 ($176)
MP1 ($214.90)
Hero ($217.50)
MP3 ($576.20)
CO ($68.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $10, Button calls $10, SB calls $9, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $8.

Flop: ($52) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $35</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $58.15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $136</font>, SB folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $207.5</font>, Button calls $71.50.


Full stacked villain is The_Main - 14/10ish.
Shortstack villain is some donk.
Thoughts? Should I ever consider folding to the flop reraise?

[SABR42]

I never fold this hand.

[Kos13]

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I never fold this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range are you giving the_main here? I've never played with the guy, but going on reputation, this looks like a fold (it's close, though).

[Mr_Donktastic]

arrrrrrrrrr in

[Mr_Donktastic]

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[ QUOTE ]
I never fold this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range are you giving the_main here? I've never played with the guy, but going on reputation, this looks like a fold (it's close, though).

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not doing the math but even if you gave main only sets i think it would still be +ev to go all in.

but i assume main could have also cold called with a suited hand.

[novel20]

No. I don't need to think and I know it is -EV. Look at their stacks.


[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I never fold this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range are you giving the_main here? I've never played with the guy, but going on reputation, this looks like a fold (it's close, though).

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not doing the math but even if you gave main only sets i think it would still be +ev to go all in.

but i assume main could have also cold called with a suited hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
No. I don't need to think and I know it is -EV. Look at their stacks.


[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I never fold this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range are you giving the_main here? I've never played with the guy, but going on reputation, this looks like a fold (it's close, though).

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not doing the math but even if you gave main only sets i think it would still be +ev to go all in.

but i assume main could have also cold called with a suited hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I never fold this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range are you giving the_main here? I've never played with the guy, but going on reputation, this looks like a fold (it's close, though).

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not doing the math but even if you gave main only sets i think it would still be +ev to go all in.

but i assume main could have also cold called with a suited hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

All-in for $172.5 more in the OP by hero, assuming villain calls, yields pot odds of $172.5 to $453.65 (what's in the pot plus a call from villain). That's about 2.63:1 pot odds. Assuming that hero has no fold equity (a pretty good assumption given the action and effective stacks), he needs better than 36% equity to make pushing +EV.

Vs sets only, hero has 25.556% equity. That's not good enough.

But vs sets, top two pair, and big draws, it's +EV:

Board: 8s 3c 9c
61.246% { 99-88,33,KcJc,JcTc,98s,7c6c,6c5c}
38.754% { AcQc }

I think villain has big draws along with sets and 2-pair often enough to make it marginally +EV. But hero's usually behind despite being correct to get all the money in.

[coordi]

I dont see how shoving this marginal spot can be bad for when your shoving this same spot way ahead and people know you could be marginal.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I never fold this hand.

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What range are you giving the_main here? I've never played with the guy, but going on reputation, this looks like a fold (it's close, though).

[/ QUOTE ]
This is pretty marginal EV, but I love to gamb00l. I basically never fold nut flush draws on the flop.

[QTip]

Yeah, this can't be a huge mistake, but I'm quite positive you're -EV for the hand in question. Sure, this does balance when you do have the big hand, but I don't think it matters much because by the time it gets back to the main, he'll call with whatever he has anyway in later hands. As always, there are other things to consider in terms of how you handle your psyche in big pots.

Overall tho, I think a push here is -EV...maybe a -$15 move or so without crunching #s. Having said that, good chance I play it the same.