How hard did he hit? AQs

[StellarWind]

A9 = 6 hands

Flush AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 85, 75, 65, 54, 53 = 13 hands

99 = 3 hands

It's also somewhat possible that this was a slowplay and the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] isn't relevant. In that case it could go either way depending on whether it's two pair or something better.

Overall it looks like 3-betting is reckless.

My table feel said "two pair" but I just called anyway. I wonder whether I knew something or was just lucky. A9o and MHIG.

[thrasher789]

I can't imagine three betting here, this seems like an easy call but definalty no reason to three bet and then be forced to call when he caps due to the size of the pot imo.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
passive and really tight on the flop, then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets. HU to the river for 8.5 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this description, his river check-raising hand range should be dominated by A9. 3-bet.

Note that a more passive player could show you Ax of clubs, but a player who likes to lag it up on the turn would surely raise top pair + flush draw.

There are 6 combinations of A9 out. AKc and A5c are both out, due to the lack of preflop raise and turn raise. A3c and A4c would be virtual locks for a raise from this kind of player, given top pair + flush + gutshot straight draw.

That leaves only A6c, A7c, A8c, ATc, and AJc. Since we are discounting these due to the laggy nature of our opponent, but can't discount A9 at all, I think you should 3-bet.

It's close enough though that just calling is not a big mistake.

good luck.
Eric


-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Flush AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 85, 75, 65, 54, 53 = 13 hands

99 = 3 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

99 != tight on the flop.
Pair + flush draw check-call != lag it up postflop. You put 54c in his range? Surely this guy will put in a raise holding pair + flush + straight draw...

You should discount these hands a lot, it's no surprise that he has A9 here.

good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I count about 15-20 flush hands that can be discounted to varying degrees (conservative estimate would be 50% on average). Only 6 combos of A9. seems like an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi vma,

How much do you discount pair+flush draw in a players range when you are told that he likes to lag it up postflop? Note that this requires CO to play his made hand + big draw passively both multiway (the first time he acts) and heads up (the 2nd time he acts).

Also... 15-20? That seems high. Where are you finding all these combos?

AK, AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 75, 65, 54, 53...
AK with no preflop raise? Highly unlikely.
A4, A3, 54, 53 just check-call turn with pair + flush + straight draw? From a lag? Seems pretty rare.

That just leaves AJ AT A8 A7, where we have him check-calling top pair + flush draw. I don't see players that like to give action playing these hands passively.

K5c and 65c still are pair + flush draw, and while a sane player should check-call given the strength of our turn bet, players that like to lag it up postflop probably won't.

Personally, A9 looks like the heart of his range.

-eric

[El helado Patata]

[ QUOTE ]
5-handed. Hero is Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Limp, limp, I raise, BB calls and the limpers call. Four to the flop for 8.5 SB.

Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet and all call. Four to the turn for 6.25 BB.

Turn is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Only Cutoff calls this time. Cutoff is 36/7 preflop, passive and really tight on the flop, then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets. HU to the river for 8.5 BB.

River is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Oops, I've been checkraised.

Now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

I say: 3bet aggressive players and just call this time due to his passive playing style.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I count about 15-20 flush hands that can be discounted to varying degrees (conservative estimate would be 50% on average). Only 6 combos of A9. seems like an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi vma,

How much do you discount pair+flush draw in a players range when you are told that he likes to lag it up postflop? Note that this requires CO to play his made hand + big draw passively both multiway (the first time he acts) and heads up (the 2nd time he acts).

Also... 15-20? That seems high. Where are you finding all these combos?

AK, AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 75, 65, 54, 53...
AK with no preflop raise? Highly unlikely.
A4, A3, 54, 53 just check-call turn with pair + flush + straight draw? From a lag? Seems pretty rare.

That just leaves AJ AT A8 A7, where we have him check-calling top pair + flush draw. I don't see players that like to give action playing these hands passively.

K5c and 65c still are pair + flush draw, and while a sane player should check-call given the strength of our turn bet, players that like to lag it up postflop probably won't.

Personally, A9 looks like the heart of his range.

-eric

[/ QUOTE ]

elindauer,
I would add:
6c4c,Kc4c,Qc4c,Kc3c,Qc3c,7c4c. Maybe a few ridiculous Jc4c/6c3c hands occasionally. All discounted to varying degrees because of pf/turn. I wonder if I am taking his fishiness pf too far or if you are taking his aggressiveness postflop too far. It's hard to know given the limited read.

[elindauer]

Fair enough. Thanks vma.

[lippy]

36/7, this can't be a poorly played set?

[StellarWind]

elindauer,

I don't fully agree with the way you are interpreting the read I gave.

[ QUOTE ]
then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets.

[/ QUOTE ]
The word "somewhat" is an important modifier here. He's not that aggressive.

The other issue is he's a fairly weak player who can't be relied on to properly evaluate hands. Just because he's tight in general on the flop doesn't mean he is going to find this particular fold with 99. It's typical of weak players not to appreciate the danger in this situation. Nor can you precisely say he would always raise the turn with XYZ but never with ABC. That's giving him too much credit for knowing what he is doing.