valuebet that river?

Olrik · #1 10-08-2007, 08:49 AM

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (10 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 10 BB

flopraise to get the pot headsup. river is somewhat weak but i was afraid of getting raised and i hate both folding and calling a raise here.

Athelas · #2 10-08-2007, 09:45 AM

I'd bet this river, and fold to a raise. I think they'll call with nines or tens often enough to make this a valuebet.

Mitke · #3 10-08-2007, 10:14 AM

Flop raise is good to extract value and protect from possible draws, maybe knocking out gutshots. FD looks likely for SB although a T or 6 are also possible. BB might test the waters on the flop with a T.

River is a nasty spot. You can only wish to split with A5,A2, A3 and lose to other aces. However, how likely are SB and BB to call with an Ax against a raise and a cold call? Without reads it's hard to say.

I'd favour betting because in some cases BB might even fold a better ace if forced to overcall by SB. Maybe that's wishing too much in a pot this big. Pot size is also a reason to bet because villains might think you are three-barreling a flop semibluff with the hearts. Very thin though.

If raised we are toast.

Burnsabre · #4 10-08-2007, 10:59 AM

I see you getting called by a better A and losing more often then you get called by a T or a 9 here, so I don't see the value in a bet here.

Olrik · #5 10-08-2007, 11:43 AM

chance of anyone folding an ace here is about 0.00 %. those villians on .5/1 are of "calldown any pair" type.

jessie · #6 10-08-2007, 12:03 PM

Fold preflop. I'd open in CO with that hand.

As played I check the river.

Olrik · #7 10-08-2007, 12:17 PM

i was in the CO. the converter must have messed it up.

and i agree with you that A3s would be a fold in MP.