party 200K guaranteed early hand : AA input wanted

[Cornell Fiji]

If you are a good aggressive player having 10,000 chips when everyone else has 5,000 chips then your chip stack is actually worth more than 10,000 because it will allow you to win more chips later on (this is especially true around bubble time)

Now it is true that each subsequent chip that you earn in a tournament is worth less to your expected winrate than the previous chip, however this is to be balanced out with the fact that having more chips will help you get more chips (especially around bubble time) and there is an equilibrium point where this play should be made.

Your example is poor because AK not a true coinflip with most pocket pairs.

However, in the first hand of the WSOP I would happily call all in with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] closing the action against a player who had 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I will elaborate more on this later if you would like but I have a final in an hour and need to get back to work

[fouf1974]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are a good aggressive player having 10,000 chips when everyone else has 5,000 chips then your chip stack is actually worth more than 10,000 because it will allow you to win more chips later on (this is especially true around bubble time)

Now it is true that each subsequent chip that you earn in a tournament is worth less to your expected winrate than the previous chip, however this is to be balanced out with the fact that having more chips will help you get more chips (especially around bubble time) and there is an equilibrium point where this play should be made.

Your example is poor because AK not a true coinflip with most pocket pairs.

However, in the first hand of the WSOP I would happily call all in with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] closing the action against a player who had 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I will elaborate more on this later if you would like but I have a final in an hour and need to get back to work

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Of course having 10000 chips is better than 5000 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

However, if you consider yourself as a good player, what is your chance to win the tournament with 1000 players. Maybe 1 or 2 % ? If you double up in the first hand, do you really believe this percentage increase a lot? I say no. Maybe you have 1.5% or 2.5% ? If you take the coin flip, you have 50% of chance to go home. Do you think it's really worth it for that small additionnal edge ? I think it's all about the risk/reward ratio. Remember, this is not the bubble and we are very far from it, this is the first hand of the tournament!

I believe very strongly in the idea that you should play small pots with marginal hands ( ans YES, an overpair with a paired and very coordinated board, is a marginal hand ), and big pots with big hands. Playing a monster pot for all your chips with only one pair does not fall in this category.

[Fiksdal]

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Fiksdal- you really open raise 5bb with AA?

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Sorry, I do not unless table is very loose. I'll do t160 for 4 bb's in this situation.

Think I misread OP, or my fingers misread my brain when I wrote 200.

[stevepa]

fouf, I think a lot of your posts show a misunderstanding of tournament concepts, this one illustrates the best.

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Of course having 10000 chips is better than 5000 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Agreed.

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However, if you consider yourself as a good player, what is your chance to win the tournament with 1000 players. Maybe 1 or 2 % ?

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Wow overestimate your edge much? There is no way anyone's chance of winning is 1%, 0.3-0.4% would be an excellent win %.

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If you double up in the first hand, do you really believe this percentage increase a lot? I say no. Maybe you have 1.5% or 2.5% ?

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At this stage in the tournament where the chips you win are small relative to the total number of chips in play, it's pretty widely accepted that your chances of winning double when you double up. Even Sklansky in TPFAP uses chipcount/(Total chips in play) to estimate chances of winning.

But that's not really what we care about, we care about EV. Again, early in tournaments, most good players (who have a mathematical background) agree that doubling up ~doubles your EV early in a tournament.

[ QUOTE ]
If you take the coin flip, you have 50% of chance to go home. Do you think it's really worth it for that small additionnal edge ? I think it's all about the risk/reward ratio. Remember, this is not the bubble and we are very far from it, this is the first hand of the tournament!

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Here's the problem: to final table this tournament, you need to accumulate about 500k chips. You don't do that by passing up edges. You play a very limited number of hands during the tournament and as a result only get so many spots that are +EV. You need to take all of them to compete in large field tournaments.

[ QUOTE ]
I believe very strongly in the idea that you should play small pots with marginal hands ( ans YES, an overpair with a paired and very coordinated board, is a marginal hand ), and big pots with big hands. Playing a monster pot for all your chips with only one pair does not fall in this category.

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This is very flawed thinking and the reason is fairly obvious: You don't take into account your opponent. Against some opponents (most players at party) you should be willing to play huge pots with very good one pair hands, because they'll play those pots with worse (sometimes much worse) one pair hands. Having these kinds of rigid guidelines will really hurt you, both while playing and while trying to improve your play.

Anyways, if you're looking to read more about this, Matt Matros wrote an excellent article for cardplayer about coinflips. I'm sure you could find it pretty quickly if you wanted.

Steve

[dneedle1]

KK I think I could, possibly, lay down here. AA no. He smooth called from position, so JJ-Kk is very possible, as is K10 suited or the like. I'm not a top player, and I know it, so I'm more willing to gamble in situations like these than some, which is wise given that I'm not a top player. If you're truly a great player a fold here is ok. If not, I think you have to hold your breath and call. More likely than not he's on a draw, which, if true, means you're, let's be VERY conservative (give him 15 outs for a straight AND flush draw to compensate for the times he has a set or a 10) almost 70% to double up. Not fantastic, but to me good enough unless you're a top top player.

[stevepa]

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KK I think I could, possibly, lay down here. AA no. He smooth called from position, so JJ-Kk is very possible, as is K10 suited or the like. I'm not a top player, and I know it, so I'm more willing to gamble in situations like these than some, which is wise given that I'm not a top player. If you're truly a great player a fold here is ok. If not, I think you have to hold your breath and call. More likely than not he's on a draw, which, if true, means you're, let's be VERY conservative (give him 15 outs for a straight AND flush draw to compensate for the times he has a set or a 10) almost 70% to double up. Not fantastic, but to me good enough unless you're a top top player.

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Great players are great because they find more edges than worse players, not because they fold when they think they have an edge.

Steve

[Trappped]

I totally and utterly disagree. Committing all your chips on a coinflip early on is just gambling, as ironic and backwards as that sounds. Many of the top tournament pros in the world like Negreanu, Cunningham, Mizrachi, Gavin Smith, all favor small ball vs long ball for accumulating a big stack.
Even Brunson quoted Johnny Moss in SS#1 that Moss's strategy in tourneys always favored survival versus gambling on slightly +EV situations. Me personally, I won't go to war for it all unless I have a set, or better, or can get 1st in Vig. on a monster draw (like 15 outs or better with 2 cards to come).

[stevepa]

Trappped, I don't know how to put this other than that you're wrong. First of all, I don't know if you've ever seen Negreanu, Mizrachi or Smith play early in a tournament, but by reputation they are very willing to gamble early. I've played with Mizrachi once before and "smallball" is not exactly how I'd describe his style of play.

You mentioned Brunson and Moss earlier and I think that's interesting to discuss. Poker has become so much more aggressive recently that I think the idea of "smallball" has become all but useless. Players used to be so weak tight (just play with some of the older pros) that you were probably right to pass up some edges because it was so easy to accumulate chips. That's just not true anymore, particularly in fast structured online tournaments. You have to gamble to get chips.

Now I know you're not going to agree with me, and that's fine, but at least look at this and try to realize why it can never be right:

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Me personally, I won't go to war for it all unless I have a set, or better, or can get 1st in Vig. on a monster draw (like 15 outs or better with 2 cards to come).

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There are times to fold sets (or better) and times to call off all your chips with one pair (or worse). I said it in another post but having these restrictive guidelines is, to put it bluntly, stupid.

Steve

[Trappped]

I respect your opinion and see value in your point of view.
People have different styles and strategies that they feel comfortable with and suit thier strengths better.
Also, there are some full time "onliners" here like Bax and Ari that play a dozen tournaments a day (hence probably 2 or more at once) , so with that type of routine, it makes sense to gamble early and often to get a stack, or just move on or focus on the next one.
Me ? I only play 1 or 2 a night, more on the weekends. I'll play the FT $35k or $25k, or the Stars $55k rebuy or the $150 nightly. So I try to make those count and get as deep as I can, otherwise, I have no interest in falling back and playing something else during the night hours.