Early Week 3 NCAA discussion

[NajdorfDefense]

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yeah....I've always been a HUGE Michigan fan

lollerskates

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In his first start, Clausen had a 50 and 65-yd drive on the PSU D, which is much better than Mich's. Decades of anecdotal and statistical data tell us a good [or even bad] QBs 2nd start will be better than his first, esp when faced with an inferior team.
It was 14-7 at half in PSU game, and PSU had an 80-yd punt return. I doubt ND gives one of those up every week, but maybe they do.

However, Mich's QB will be making his first start.

Also, I got 2-2.5pts better than market at SIA. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MyTurn2Raise]

I'm banned at SIA [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


ND still has 0 offensive TDs in 2 games

I might place a small bet on Michigan on this game. I'm pretty sure Michigan is still the much stronger team.



I read something funny on college football live's live feedback yesterday. Something about the NCAA changing rules to bring ties back because they recognize no one should win the ND-Michigan game this weekend.

[MicroBob]

That's kind of a ha-ha. But it seems mostly a take-off of what Kenny Mayne said on SportsCenter last night about the game.

Also - Kenny Mayne on SC can be freaking hilarious.

[sanmarcosrun1]

Mich has a bad defense against certain offensive schemes. This isn't the NFL. A college team can't change their stripes. Their Defense match-ups well with NDs Offense scheme. ND does not have the athletes to expose Mich weaknesses. Weis did a great job with Ty's recruiting class but did you know of all Weis' recruits they have scored 1 total touchdown since he has been coaching there.

Also all info I have been able to find on Hart has been a bruise to his thigh, essentially a charlie horse.

As I said I could be wrong and I don't have a problem with that. As nothing is a lock. GL to everyone.

[NajdorfDefense]

Why do you think the line has fallen from 10 to 7?

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So yes ND strength is passing the ball but it is passing the ball short and not deep where the weakness is in Michigan's D.

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You realize AppSt didn't even try to go deep but 1-2x and it was unsuccessful, right? The 75-yd TD in the 1st Q was not a bomb. The AS QB couldn't make a 30-yd throw to save his life. I bet Clausen can. But we will see.

I just don't understand how anyone could write 10 paragraphs about this game and not talk about how the Mich QB is making his first start in a huge pressure situation against a solid Def. Somehow, I think it's a factor. JMHO.

[sanmarcosrun1]

A solid Defense? What are you talking about? ND has no solid defense. Mallet is an unknown factor due to his lack of playing obviously as I said. Just as Clausen is. There is no definitive edge at Qb because their is very little data on both Qbs. Not going to say oh Clausen gives them edge because he has thrown more and played a whole game. The fact is Clausen has no support around him in terms of talent and he has no protection. Mallet has large amount of talent around him.

And he has no pressure on him. They are at rock bottom right now. He also isn't exactly starting in hostile territory either being as they are at home. I can't exactly use his high school stats to judge his ability here. It is an unknown factor that could go either way which is why I clearly defined it is not something I can judge.

Anyway I am not going to argue as we are allowed to have differing opinions. I could be wrong and you all could be right. I simply provided part of my analysis that I have looked at for the game.

[NajdorfDefense]

copied from other thread, ND's def has done a really admirable job given the situations they've been in versus two ranked teams, 1 on the road in front of 110k fans.

1) Again, I don't understand the refusal to adjust for a first-time starting QB in this analysis. If you think he will play as good as Henne, just say so [ anyone.] If not, pls comment on the effect that will have against a decent defense. The fact that none of the Mich/Over fans will do so is really making me wonder, now.

2) In the first 53 mins, ND's Def gave up 17 pts to PSU. In PSUs first 8 drives, they started at ND 27, PSU 49, 37, 37, etc and got 1 TD.

3) In the first 47 mins, ND's Def gave up 1 TD to GaTech, even with 2 fumbles, 5 punts, and 2 Kickoffs, and 3 drives that started on with GT already in ND territory. Bears mentioning.

4) Mich scored a whopping 7 pts on Oregon at home. No FGs. 4 turnovers. 13 posessions and 1 scoring drive on a Def that gave up 27 pts and *545* yards of offense at home the prior week. Oregon does not remotely have PSU's Def. Houston got 6.4ypc on the ground, Mich got a whopping 3.3, or 50% worse. At home. With Mike Hart.
Houston also outpassed Mich, no surprise there I guess.

More importantly, if this is such a great bet without Henne, why the line move from 10 to 7?

The total I'm not certain of anything except someone will score, guaranteed, even if it's just a pick6 or punt return. {guarantee includes Overtime[s]}

Marcos, your analysis may be right, but you are clearly biased. I hate both teams so have no bias, I actually hate ND the most, fwiw.

[NajdorfDefense]

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There is no definitive edge at Qb because their is very little data on both Qbs. Not going to say oh Clausen gives them edge because he has thrown more and played a whole game.

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This is an obvious edge in terms of just evaluating the QBs. You can't say a true frosh with virtually no experience is the equal of the top ranked HS QB who's played 2 games vs PSU and GaTech. He may not be far behind, but he's behind.

Evidently the bookies/bettors make it 2.5 points behind.

[sanmarcosrun1]

LMAO biased. I hate Michigan and the Bigten. I am SEC/PAC10 fan. Only teams I am biased towards are Cal and Florida. I am furthest thing from Michigan or ND fan. Sorry to disappoint but no biased. Anyway it doesn't matter. It is one college football game being bet on. No big deal in life. We disagree on a game. As I said best of luck to all and I will hope for a middle so we all win.

[sanmarcosrun1]

Also being top ranked High School Qb means squat. Thatis like buying into those magazine that rank recruiting classes,which are just terrible. Anyway GL bud.