Early Week 3 NCAA discussion

[kdog]

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Uhhh...Temple +30.5 v. UConn?

Did half their team get hurt or what?


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Seems about right when you consider that Temple would have trouble beating a good high school team.

[dmoney416]

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Really liking Miami, Ohio +9 at home.

Huge rivalry game and is in Oxford.

Cincy is a bit over-valued now following their thumping of Oregon State on national TV. They really aren't as good as they looked imo.

Miami, Ohio is still a bit under-valued after only 2 wins last year. They are a better team now and brought in a new QB late for a nice comeback to force OT at Minnesota.

Note that even last year when they ended up with a terrible season they still played a lot of close games although they did lose by 14 vs. UC and by 28 the year before so that has me a bit concerned.
On the glass-half-full side you know this serves as a huge motivation for them in a game that is already a big rivalry.

Overall, I really think UC is only 6-7 points better than Miami at the most. So up in Oxford they should only be about 3-4 point faves.

A 9 point line for a matchup in Oxford meaning that UC is considered 11-12 points better indicates how popular they are after their big Oregon State win.

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I am on Cincy -9, but I understand where you are coming from.

Before you jump on Miami OH though, make sure you take a look at this:

Two RedHawk starters suffer knee injuries
Click-2-Listen
By Pete Conrad

Staff Writer

Sunday, September 09, 2007

MINNEAPOLIS — Injuries took a heavy toll on the Miami University football team in its 41-35 triple overtime loss at Minnesota on Saturday afternoon, costing the RedHawks perhaps their two best players.

Joey Hudson, Miami's All-Mid-American Conference middle linebacker, was knocked out of the game with an injury to his right knee with 6:04 remaining in the first quarter. Just like that, the RedHawks had lost the anchor of their defense.

After Miami's only touchdown of the first half, Mike Kokal's 24-yard pass to Dustin Woods, placekicker Trevor Cook missed the extra-point wide left and then turned his right ankle when he was flattened by a Minnesota lineman.

Cook's injury wasn't serious. He came back in the second half to kick two field goals, including the 36-yarder that tied the game with 11 seconds left in regulation, but then was wide right on a 33-yard attempt that would have won it in overtime.

The third casualty of the first half came when defensive end Jordan Stevens hurt his back. The redshirt freshman also was able to return in the second half.

The second injury to a Miami star came with 9:25 left in the fourth quarter. Senior tailback Brandon Murphy was leveled by Minnesota cornerback Jamal Harris, who forced and recovered a fumble that led to the Golden Gophers' fourth touchdown, which appeared to put the game out of reach at 28-12.

After a couple minutes, Murphy sat up and was helped off the field with an injured right knee. Murphy, who seemed headed for his second straight 100-yard game with 78 yards on 12 carries, was unable to return. The extent of his injury is unknown.


According to the Sports Network:

CINCINNATI - No significant injuries.

MIAMI-OHIO -
*Linebacker Joey Hudson (9/10, leg) is doubtful for Saturday's game against Cincinnati.

*Running back Brandon Murphy (9/10, right knee) is questionable for Saturday's game against Cincinnati.

*Guard Matt McKeown (9/10, shoulder) is questionable for Saturday's game against Cincinnati.

Offensive tackle Heath Cartwright (8/19, back) is expected to miss the entire season.

The players with asterisks are starters. Hudson led the team in tackles and INTs last season and is considered the team's best defender. Murphy is the starting RB.


GL this week. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[MicroBob]

Interesting and seems pretty important.
UC's offense seems dangerous and it would take a big effort by Miami to contain them somewhat. Being as beat up as the artice indicates definitely changes things imo.

Random side-note: I know/knew the writer of that article.

[sanmarcosrun1]

ND is not exactly calling plays in which Clausen is throwing the ball deep plus they don't have a speedy deep threat for WR or TE. Clausen is on short leash in terms of passes and play calling. Weis is thinking long term and the kid recently had his elbow surgery. Weis doesn't exactly want him putting alot of torque on his arm by chucking it down field. Last week from data according to the film on the game I reviewed Clausen threw over 60% of his passes below five yards down the field in terms of routes. Most yards were after the catch. He has 1 pass over 15 yards which if you think about it is amazing considering they were down by a large amount requiring deeper passes to give them a shot. They were close during PennState game due to turnovers (more of typical Morelli screw-up more than big time D paly) and special teams fluky type plays not exactly hard fought battle.

Here is birds eye view of what goes into my analysis:
RB/WR: Large edge to Michigan.
QB: N/A not large amount of data both freshman QBs.
O-Line: Huge edge for Michigan here as well. ND is negative rushing yards largely due to the amount of sacks they are giving up (7.5 per game). Remove the sacks and ND is still only averaging 50yards per game on the ground. That is largly due to the fact they lack the talent at RB plus the poor O-line. ND O-line is as bad as advertised if not worse.

Special Teams: N/A as both are questionable

Defense: Both have had poor showings. But edge here is again Michigan. Their Defense since last year has had trouble with Deep threat players and offenses with running QBs that could throw it deep. Their difficulty stopping the run has had large amount due to Spread option teams they have faced also talented runners they have faced.

ND has no star runner and if Demetrius Jones was their QB I would see cause for worry but Clausen isn't a "runner" but has some mobility.Their Defense is built around keeping people in front of them and putting their offense in position to control the game and outscore their opponents. ND plays into the strengths of this Defense of scheme and also doesn't match-up against their weaknesses well.

ND on the other hand Defense is gashed by the run. Hart is stud who can get exploit NDs D. ND will try and stack the box but is real risky considering their secondary does not match-up at all against Manningham and Arrington which will leave open deep routes. Also ND tried stacking the box against GT and that didn't really work either. Michigan has too much talent on offense even with Henne out. Mallet essentially has to just let the stars make plays and limit mistakes. Different for Clausen who has entire load left on his shoulders.

So yes ND strength is passing the ball but it is passing the ball short and not deep where the weakness is in Michigan's D. And even if they go deep a few more times ND does not have fast WRs to get seperation for big plays. ND lacks the "playmakers". App State actually has them, which is why they were able to win (That program is no joke and hasn't been for years. They get a lot of talent.).

These are few of reasons why I like Michigan especially if they keep falling as I expect them to. Huge value already but am waiting it out as it could go below -7, already at -7.5.

I could be off and look like idiot but that is how I can learn and make improvements to my analysis. GL to you all in your picks and I will hope for a middle score for us all so we can all win. I will post my pick when I officially get on it when it gets to its lowest point as I don't want to miss out on value.

[MicroBob]

I don't know. It's an interesting analysis but I can't help but wonder if it's just a tad optimistic.
ND's defense looked like they actually made some plays against Penn St whereas Michigan flat-out looked like they couldn't even tackle.

[Alzee]

Hey guys, doing decent so far... here's my week 3 action thus far.

• Cincinnati U -9 (1u)
• Oregon -16.5 (1u)
• UCLA -13.5 (1u)
• BYU -6.5 (1u)
• Washington +4 (1u)
• USC -10 (1u)
• Purdue -19.5 (1u)

no o/u's yet

[NajdorfDefense]

Marcos,

you didn't seem to factor in Hart's injury. Why?

You assume no one on ND but Clausen can make a play? On Mich's swiss-cheese D? Interesting.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I don't think ND's players can make plays on Michigan's D either

[NajdorfDefense]

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I don't think ND's players can make plays on Michigan's D either

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Enough of your rampant little-10 homerism!

[MyTurn2Raise]

yeah....I've always been a HUGE Michigan fan

lollerskates