UFC 65 11/18/06

[sollog]

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Wow, GSP destroyed Hughes, not even competitive

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im absolutely astounded by how viciously outclassed hughes was.

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Hughes is getting ready to retire. Rumors about training injured, unfocused, and wanting to retire etc. This why the line dropped like a rock. His last two fights he has looked downright weak (physically). If Hughes was prime this would have been a closer fight, but maybe not. All those who said he would outwrestle GSP were way off the mark. GSPs been training with the Canadian national wrestling team for a long time now. They wanted him to quit MMA and wrestle on their team.

[bones]

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Apparently you didn't see the fight. And you didn't see it coming beforehand.

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Apparently this is both your first time watching MMA and betting sports. Saying someone who has been as dominant as Hughes has doesn't have a chance is just dumb.

I realize that you're giddy over calling the fight and that's great. But gambling isn't the place for hyperbole.

[igetbadbeat]

Two people I know put 50u on GSP. u=2%.

[apple11]

I said to everyone before this fight that hughes only shot was elbows from the top. Even got gsp at +125 [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. I thought GSP was going to win but I was shocked him killed him that badly.

[Megenoita]

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Apparently you didn't see the fight. And you didn't see it coming beforehand.

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Apparently this is both your first time watching MMA and betting sports. Saying someone who has been as dominant as Hughes has doesn't have a chance is just dumb.

I realize that you're giddy over calling the fight and that's great. But gambling isn't the place for hyperbole.

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Who's giddy? I was rooting for Hughes. I almost cried. But saying that Hughes, who has no advantage over GSP anymore (not one), has a realistic chance of beating the much younger and in-his-prime GSP, is just irresponsible. I'm not sure if you follow MMA closely, but it's not a secret that GSP looked better than Hughes in the first fight. His skills dominate Hughes' except for wrestling, which I personally believe is now neutralized (we'll see in the rematch).

I have warrants for my views; you are saying Hughes can compete b/c he's been champ for so long. That's not really viable IMO.

[Performify]

<ul type="square">
Summary of Picks [*] Brandon Vera -312 : 9.36u to win 3u : WIN +3u[*] Sherman Pendergarst +247 : .5u to win 1.235u : Loss -.5u[*] Alessio Sakara -483 : 2.415u to win .5u : Loss -2.415u[*] James Irvin +143 : 1u to win 1.43u : WIN +1.43u[*] Joe Stevenson -228 : 2.28u to win 1u : WIN +1u[*] Jeff Monson +233 : .5u to win 1.165u : Loss -.5u[*] Matt Hughes -127 : 2.54u to win 2u : Loss -2.54u[*] Gleison Tibau : +428 : .25u to win 1.05u : Loss -.25u[/list]

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The first four plays, Vera, Pendergarst, Sakara and Stevenson would be those that i'd see as strongly +EV. Monson is a longer shot underdog call. Hughes I see as a tremendous value but i'm surprised to see where the money has ended up. Tibau is a pure value play that you can probably stay away from unless you want the full card covered...

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On the four identified +EV plays, result is 2-2 +1.085u

On all posted picks, result is 3-5, -0.775u.
If you stayed away from Tibau as recommended but played the rest, result 3-4 and -0.525u


Quick thoughts:

The Sakara ending was really surprising. Sakara looked like he was controlling the fight, he was definitely dominating the exchanges, and then gets hit with an uppercut that leads to a delayed knockdown.

Pendergarst surprised me that he couldn't do much when he got Hardonk down. I expected that fight to be over when Hardonk hit the canvas.

Monson / Sylvia was obviously surprising. Surprising that Monson got Sylvia down twice and couldn't do ANYTHING against him. Surprised that Timmy tried a couple subs on Monson. Pretty impressive from Timmy. Hopefully Vera / Sylvia will be a good one, if that's next

Hughes was dominated start to finish by GSP. Much respect to the new champ. Hopefully they don't try to do Hughes/GSP III next. If anything I'd like to see Hughes/Penn III and give the winner another shot at GSP. But I have no desire to see GSP work Hughes again, and its pretty clear from today that GSP would be able to work him over, again.

[Hoya]

I think Vera's next fight might be Sylvia. What if they put him against Monson or Arlovski and he loses? Then they have no title contenders.

[Megenoita]

lol...what do you think of Vera vs. Anderson Silva?

[Mac]

great fights... Couldn't help but pull for GSP a bit even though my money was on Hughes.

Hughes seemed a bit overconfident with his striking. I think he only went for one takedown which GSP stuffed. A solid ass-kicking.

and I think Mir is done, he should retire. Sometimes you can see a guy coming to the ring and see he's not mentally ready.

- Mac

[ozyman]

if/when these clips are up on youtube, please post.