Thoughts on Elliot Wave trading strategy?

Moonshine · #1 12-21-2006, 07:13 PM

Does anybody here use Elliot Wave theory to trade or know of anyone who does? It seems kind of like a bunch of bull to me...especialy given the vast amount of non-mathematical human interpretation involved in identifying waves...

i see they have software available for ~$2k/yr that searches for patterns and identifies profitable trading opportunities...any thoughts on this?

hedgetop · #2 12-21-2006, 11:19 PM

Technical analysis most definetly does not work... do not invest or partake in any investing strategy that has technical analysis at its core.

Chrisman886 · #3 12-22-2006, 01:12 AM

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Technical analysis most definetly does not work... do not invest or partake in any investing strategy that has technical analysis at its core.

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I must be the luckiest man alive then ...

I'm not a big fan of Elliot Wave. If you are looking insight on longer term technical analysis strategies, buy Stan Weinstein's "Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets." I highly recommend it and I can assure you it is much cheaper than $2k =)

pig4bill · #4 12-22-2006, 03:20 AM

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Technical analysis most definetly does not work... do not invest or partake in any investing strategy that has technical analysis at its core.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing if not predictable.

Moonshine · #5 12-23-2006, 06:51 PM

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Technical analysis most definetly does not work... do not invest or partake in any investing strategy that has technical analysis at its core.

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how can you say this?

you're just efficient market all the way and invest in index funds and hold stocks for 20 years?

fun160 · #6 12-26-2006, 12:08 AM

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Does anybody here use Elliot Wave theory to trade or know of anyone who does? It seems kind of like a bunch of bull to me...especialy given the vast amount of non-mathematical human interpretation involved in identifying waves...

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The beauty of Elliot Wave is that it's never wrong. If the market goes in the "wrong" direction, Ellioticians claim it was the "alternate count" and refigure things to make EW correct in retrospect.

GeorgeF · #7 12-26-2006, 01:00 AM

"i see they have software available for ~$2k/yr that searches for patterns and identifies profitable trading opportunities...any thoughts on this? "

I doubt it is worth that. I suggest you get Elliot's book and come up with your own system.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliot_wave

AustroDONK · #8 12-26-2006, 03:58 PM

since the stock market is (mostly) human psychology in the short term... there should be some validity to technical analysis- not? (= herdmentality)
Long term Tachnical Analysis is sorta Shaky, although so Moving Averages still should be helpful.
Elliot ? The little Dinosaur that wented to be a fire fighter? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
Like someone above said... Elliot (at least in the book I read) is not clear about how to "do it" except in the rearview mirrow.

DesertCat · #9 12-26-2006, 04:10 PM

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since the stock market is (mostly) human psychology in the short term... there should be some validity to technical analysis- not? (= herdmentality)

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If you believe that, you have to believe that psychology can predict human behavior very accurately, and not just for a single person. You must believe that it's possible to accurately predict the behavior of a crowd of unrelated, disparate humans only connected by their decisions to buy or sell a single security.

AustroDONK · #10 12-26-2006, 07:15 PM

Desertcat...I did not say you can predict a single security and that is not the point, I am talking Index like SPY, VTI that sort of stuff.. and I do believe that mass psychology combined with money flows is a huge part of the short term trends (Weeks - Month).. I can't prove it to you though...