10/25. Rate this bluff? What you think success rate is?

[4CardGrind]

Alright this hand got needlessly complicated because I made an impulsive/silly call on turn, but bear with me.

Hand #48013930-650 at Syracuse (Pot Limit Omaha)
Started at 15/Nov/07 00:23:18

Be_My_Guest is at seat 2 with $5611.
Rollover2k is at seat 5 with $2836.
The button is at seat 5.

Rollover2k posts the small blind of $10.
Be_My_Guest posts the big blind of $25.

Be_My_Guest: -- -- -- --
Rollover2k: Kc 2s 8h Ks

Pre-flop:

Rollover2k raises to $75. Be_My_Guest calls.

Flop (board: Qs 6d Jh):

Be_My_Guest checks. Rollover2k bets $150.
Be_My_Guest calls.

Turn (board: Qs 6d Jh Jd):

Be_My_Guest checks. Rollover2k bets $300.
Be_My_Guest raises to $600. Rollover2k calls.

River (board: Qs 6d Jh Jd Ac):

Be_My_Guest checks. Rollover2k bets $1600.


Be_My_Guest is a pretty laggy player 60/30 ish... he seems a bit on tilt at the time because I sucked out and someone else had too and hit and run.

The real error is on the turn here. It's an obvious fold because if he is running a bluff, he is pounding any riv on me for sure, and I don't think I could stand up to the pressure. If he has a piece he is either betting/checking down riv, given that I want to check down my hand.. anytime he has a piece he wins too. Basically I only win when he is making a minraise bluff and giving up on the river. So that is the obv error.

However.... as played, what do you think of the river bet?

I mean, when he min raise/checks riv all the sudden I feel like he absolutely has to have a weak jack. Logic for me is, he raises flop with any two pair the way HU been going. Given that I bet two streets and called his raise he can't really put me on the peeling/floating type hand I have.. and even if he does I could have hit AA now.

So I figure in his seat he has to worry about QQ, AA, QJ, KT (which I would value bet and I beleive he knows this), and J6.

So assuming we don't fold the turn, is this a good spot to fire on river?