Hoi Polloi's highly anticipated stat post - Page 3

The Bryce · #21 08-30-2006, 01:33 PM

I thought 33 and 58 would yield .2, which was kind of the point I was getting at.

To deomnstrate, though, let's say that the average hand that goes to showdown has 9BB in it. Player A has a VPIP of 26% and is 33/58 for showdowns. Player B has a VPIP of 26% and is 40/50 for showdowns.

Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite.

The Bryce · #22 08-30-2006, 01:52 PM

Also, I said 33/60 in my post.

luckyharr · #23 08-30-2006, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought 33 and 58 would yield .2, which was kind of the point I was getting at.

To deomnstrate, though, let's say that the average hand that goes to showdown has 9BB in it. Player A has a VPIP of 26% and is 33/58 for showdowns. Player B has a VPIP of 26% and is 40/50 for showdowns.

Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, I think you edited that to "slight favorite" before I could quote. With that change I agree with your statement. Basically, it's close. The only point I was trying to make is that if I'm seeing more showdowns I must win at least one of them to justify the expense. You are right that you'd rather be 33/61 than 40/50, but I think 33/58 and 40/50 end up being pretty close, just stylistically different. I imagine you bet/fold more than me and I check/call more than you.

luckyharr · #24 08-30-2006, 02:02 PM

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Also, I said 33/60 in my post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. I was adjusting the numbers to make a point. I agree that you'd rather be 33/60 than 40/50. Basically, player 2 is picking 7 more showdowns that he loses in that case.

The Bryce · #25 08-30-2006, 02:08 PM

I know, I was just trying to show that saying things like "you should go to showdown X amount of the time" is quite silly.

#26 08-30-2006, 03:08 PM

Hoi, as Bryce said, these stats you provide doesn't say much.

But if you posted a screendump of the detailed stats page and perhaps some position stats, maybe someone could hint about possible leaks in your game.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #27 08-30-2006, 03:09 PM

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Uh, mathematically speaking, yes you would rather be winning the same amount of showdowns but be paying less overall to see showdowns.

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Okay, I see how you've framed the problem now. But I also think that someone with a 60% W$SD in aggressive online games would be playing sub-optimatially.

TeeJayOrTJ · #28 08-30-2006, 03:17 PM

Over 225K hands of 10/20 6max and up I have a WTSD of 44 and W$SD at 50...of course I suck.

The Bryce · #29 08-30-2006, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Over 225K hands of 10/20 6max and up I have a WTSD of 44 and W$SD at 50...of course I suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way dude, that's awesome. What do you average at showdown (filter tab)?

mmcd · #30 08-30-2006, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to keep in mind the fact that player B might make some bet-sized mistakes, but player A is making pot-sized mistakes.

Player A may well be in better shape if the bulk of his "bad" folds come on the flop, but if they are coming on the turn or river, player B is definately better off.

I'd be interested to see a comparison of the FF FT FR and W$w/oSD numbers of ~40/50 and ~33/60 type players with substantially similar preflop stats.

Also, I think it's a mistake to assume that the average pot sizes will be the same for these two players.