Dow Theory Confirmed SELL signal today

[pig4bill]

Could be. I doubt it helps much of anything. The pop will likely be short-lived, as people do their tax-loss selling into it. Shorts that have been covering are looking for a pop to reload into.

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awesome theory when you know to sell when everything is just begining to look cheap. All im gonna say is I wish bought more sp puts back in october. I sold them though and am gonna rebuy before the next fed meeting as I really feel they will not cut rates. When that happens get ready for 300 pt drop. Ill either do it the day before the meeting or into the next rally.

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The Fed has to cut rates or hundreds of banks will be on the verge of bankruptcy. That is why futures trading is giving it a 92% probability.

[stephenNUTS]

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As I have said in the past that I am not a big proponent of the Dow Theory(IMO I feel it is WAAAAY too late of a signal)

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What is your favorite signal/signals of a coming bear market?

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From a TRADERS perspective ....I use much faster time frames with regard to TA , along with some FA to assist me .Since leaving WS on a permanant basis....I obv. still trade my family/personal accounts quite often.....in fact DAILY of late....ESP. when the volatility spikes as it has the last month.Yesterdays close,was almost a "throw in the towel" mentality before the holiday WE,after the market failed to rally the last HR,and any good trader saw that coming a mile away.

However it was in NO way a capitulation type collapse that I would REALLY like to see in order to put in some/ANY sort of short term market bottom.Making LOWER LOWS in during these sell-offs is STILL very negative IMO

These recent FAILED attempts at rallying have been met with WAVES of selling/shorting the majority of the last 10 sessions or so....esp. in the final HR.

Below is another FREE program that will give you a FASTER buy/sell signal time frame ..using a 13dma and 50 dma crossover.....it actuallywill give you a RED SELL signal....and GREEN BUY signal at the bottom of the chart.The chart I have showing is SPY(which is the ETF instrument containing the basket of stocks in the S+P 500).If you look at the lttle RED SELL signal showing in the middle of the page....it was actually cinfirmed early LAST WEEK.As a shorter term trader...the DOW THEORY signal....is WAAAY too late for me.

If anything....I can see the market(as I mentioned above) having a HUGE RALLY before years end,as the BEAR CAMP is also getting abit too crowed for me,from a contrarian POV

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/d...3fSymbol%3dqqqq

Obviously....it is NOT 100% reliable and in NO WAY am I implying it to be "the end all be all" of trading......but IMO its a great little tool to learn technical analysis and a fun thing to tinker with for the new guys.It actually is quite accurate when in comes to some positions on a SWING TRADE time frame basis .You can enter any stock, ETF,etc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

On a personal note about some recent questions I have been asked:
I have been heavily SHORT the finanacial and home building sectors since the JUNE/JULY disclosure of the first signs of the sub-prime mess...and STILL am

I also RECENTLY shorted the S+P,and QQQQ's(actually LONG QID) last week once again.

I have also started SHORTING some WAAAY overheated tech stocks that have BEEN FAILING miserably the last two weeks.

I am starting to make some sort of game plan as to COVERING some of these short positions coinciding with bottom fishing/BUYING-COVERING some of these beaten up stocks in the financial arena before years end.

A successful play/HEDGE that has worked GREAT over the last few months... "was" to SHORT the financials,and go LONG tech.It has been quite profitable...but that trade is getting overcrowded now too

I will update this often ,and answer any NON specific questions as to MY OWN personal holdings.If a MOD could make a consolidated thread about DAILY TRADING/POSITIONS or something,that would be great.... BUT:

***I cannot get into much detail as to MY ACTUAL positions ,nor RECO. any particular stock . I am still a registered rep(even though I dont deal with any public clients anymore on a business relationship)

Some of these other STOCK FORUMS have become breeding grounds for PUMP and DUMP schemes,front running,fraud,ect. Also being the former CEO of my firm, I am still bound by some disclosure issues for 2 more yrs.

I OBV still have my LONG TERM holdings,funds,stocks/bonds that I really dont even look at...as the things I will talk about are regarding my trading/short term ideas only****

I can however STILL talk about the market in general terms though [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Happy Thanksgiving Guys
Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[ahnuld]

barron,

yes, but I think 50bp is out of the question this meeting. Given that I hold the view of no rate cut 50%, 1/2 cut 50% 1/2 cut 0%, and there is already slightly more than 1/4 pont cut built in, isnt it a risk free play (obviously if my opinion on the possibilities is accurate)?

[dazraf69]

stephen,

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Lao Tzu - "Give A Man A Fish, Feed Him For A Day. Teach A Man To Fish, Feed Him For A Lifetime"

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Some of us are more eager to learn how it is you do what you do, rather than sit by the sideline waiting for a bone. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Mort10]

I personally think a cut would be outragous. There is just no way they have inflation under control. I think they should be more concerned about the inflation right now as commodities are rallying than growth. However, as pointed out earlier the Fed has proven to been more than willing to cut the rates and don't seem to care about inflation at all. So who knows. However, I do agree Ahnuld that 50bp is out of the question.

[pig4bill]

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awesome theory when you know to sell when everything is just begining to look cheap. All im gonna say is I wish bought more sp puts back in october. I sold them though and am gonna rebuy before the next fed meeting as I really feel they will not cut rates. When that happens get ready for 300 pt drop. Ill either do it the day before the meeting or into the next rally.

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The Fed has to cut rates or hundreds of banks will be on the verge of bankruptcy.

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How is a Fed cut going to change that?

[Jimbo]

I feel this historical signal is a bit misleading due to it's occurance on such a low volume day. Next Monday's market will provide a better signal, if the market finishes lower Monday than Wednesdays close it will be worth considering, if not it is more like the August lows.

Jimbo

[stephenNUTS]

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stephen,

[ QUOTE ]
Lao Tzu - "Give A Man A Fish, Feed Him For A Day. Teach A Man To Fish, Feed Him For A Lifetime"

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of us are more eager to learn how it is you do what you do, rather than sit by the sideline waiting for a bone. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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When I first read this quote,I didnt quit know how to take it or respond to it [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]?

Now after thinking about my reply for awhile.....I have an idea......but I would appeciate some specific thoughts FROM YOU....then I think I can/WILL help [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[dazraf69]

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stephen,

[ QUOTE ]
Lao Tzu - "Give A Man A Fish, Feed Him For A Day. Teach A Man To Fish, Feed Him For A Lifetime"

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of us are more eager to learn how it is you do what you do, rather than sit by the sideline waiting for a bone. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

When I first read this quote,I didnt quit know how to take it or respond to it [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]?

Now after thinking about my reply for awhile.....I have an idea......but I would appeciate some specific thoughts FROM YOU....then I think I can/WILL help [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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My comment was actual regarding this comment.... [ QUOTE ]
***I cannot get into much detail as to MY ACTUAL positions ,nor RECO. any particular stock . I am still a registered rep(even though I dont deal with any public clients anymore on a business relationship)

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Things I would like to know is how you go about picking a company you like and deciding if you are going to invest. Seems the coming year will be more beneficial for a stock picker than holding an index fund.