QJs got there on river

[early325]

i know that our hand looks like 9x..i'm asking how often 9x is calling another bet on the river? i seem to think it's less often then we bluff or VB a worse hand (like JQss for example lol)

if our hand is J9 and he fires river again, are you advocating a call?

[cs3]

*grunch*
i thnk 2/3 pot is plenty on the river and i think smaller gets you looked up by TT/JJ more often. im not at all surpised to see villain snap call you here with AA/KK, which i think is a big chunk of villains range here

[wdead]

I see we have a flush draw.
Villain bets flop, we need 10-1 to hit if he has a hand.
Villain bets turn, we need around 3-1 to hit if he has a hand.
If we are peeling here to stack a hand, then a river bet seems suicidal.
If we are peeling these to take pots away, we should put in a raise somewhere.

So, it boils down to, if river was an offsuit deuce, and villain checked, what is hero's line and why?
I think the play on this hand is completely inconsistent, and hero should check the river. I think if hero is betting this river, he should be raising turn.

Thoughts?

[early325]

calling the flop isn't standard, and making a play if villain slows down is certainly a good idea, but turning the FD added a ton of value to our hand, so there isn't really a need to raise..

betting the river (less than $88 though) is +EV imo, but very marginally, because he probably gets called by TT/JJ or a 9 slightly more often than villain has a better hand.

[fees]

60 imo

[jlocdog]

To all that disagree with me,

1)What is the worst hand you will value bet with as HJ?
2)What makes you think you orange will bluff/VB the river given he has just CALLED 3 streets?
3)Does everybody see that this board is quite dry given how the cards came out and the lines taken?
4)Can we agree that a bluff by orange (if he had crap) is MUCH thinner then a VB by HJ?

early,

No, if we had J9 and HJ bet the river, I advocate a fold. That does not mean HJ knows this. Nor does this mean that we would ever VB it if checked to. Infact, if you advocate checking QJ because it seems thin then why would you ever contemplate betting J9? J9 does not = QJ here. I hope we all see that. The fact that TT/JJ makes up a significant portion of his range should clear that up. And if HJ thinks we would VB/bluff J9 here, then it should only make us want to bet the river even more.

I have said this numerous times but I will reiterate it one last time. At no point in the action did we give the impression that a)we didn't like our hand, b) we had second thoughts about calling down c)we would suddenly take control of the action if checked to.

To think we would suddenly wake up on the end only to make a VB seems odd given action and thus KK/AA would seem better off to bet his hand and hope we view him as triple barreling air rather then try to induce a thin VB out of us because we have given him nothing to believe such a thing would happen. The fact that we have a Q in our hand shouldn't affect this since our range of holdiings from his perspective carries minimal weight that we would have a Q in our hand by this point. Again, he is not folding with these stacks with KK/AA so even if he thinks we have Q8/Q9 he is going to pay us off. That being the case, there is no point in c/c'ng since he will miss value from Qx that checks behind but ALWAYS pay off when we bet. He might as well just bet himself to give himself the best opportunity to gain value.

Also, you cannot use that the read of him being 'TAGish' makes it less likely thatwe have an 8/9 yet he will be afraid to bet on this harmless river. Can't have it both ways. I really don't understand how this is as difficult as it is. Maybe I am just bad in articulating myself.

[Imrahil]

Our hand is really well disguised if we hit on the river so I think calling the turn is fine. I'd bet like $60 on the river.

[orange]

The thing is, would you guys ever bet $60 here as a bluff? I chose $88 because I thought it would look more bluffy. As others have stated, there arent TOO many bluff combos here unfortunately, but I think that turning a made hand into a bluff could work sometiems here.

[GSykes]

59.95

[early325]

jloc,

you're missing what i'm saying..i'm not arguing for a fold, i advocated a bet earlier in the thread. i'm giving reasons why villain would check KK/AA here on the river.