*** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)

[THEOSU]

i was looking for pictures for the imo thread in b4l, but man, i think all i would have to do is throw a big fat imo on this picture without anything else.

[kyleb]

lolol

[MuresanForMVP]

hahaha I have a folder specifically for hilarious pictures I see posted on 2p2. That one just earned itself a spot

[kyleb]

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Laffey? Aaron Laffey? Damn I'm impressed with how quickly he made it to the show considering when he played HS ball in MD he was topping out at about 88. Kid was kind of a douche from what I hear, but props for making the post season roster. Kyle, you should be a bit more of a homer more often [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Laffey gets it into the low 90's from what I've seen of him, and he's got good mechanics. His pitches are decent and he'll make a fine league-average starter.

Cleveland's biggest strength is their front office and management team. They cut bait on Jason Stanford, Andrew Brown, and Jeremy Guthrie when they thought none of them could compete at a high enough level. They aren't afraid to make tough decisions fast and get young kids in there ASAP. Cleveland's farm system is simply too good to allow good players to pile up and do nothing to help the big league team win (see also: Dodgers, Devil Rays) and Shapiro/Antonetti/Wedge know this.

Obviously Guthrie turned in quite a fine year, but Brown/Stanford are nothing special. Cutting Boras clients has to be liberating, too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[THAY3R]

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I had a 2 point lead going into the 9th [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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zzzzzz

[sublime]

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On the other hand, they can only start Wang twice as a potential ace (today's antics not withstanding, Andy is not an ace).

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yeah cuz there is a huge difference (any?) between him and pettite.

[kyleb]

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On the other hand, they can only start Wang twice as a potential ace (today's antics not withstanding, Andy is not an ace).

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yeah cuz there is a huge difference (any?) between him and pettite.

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Yes, there's a significant difference between them. Wang's SNLVAR is almost a full point better than Pettitte's. Furthermore, Wang depresses SLG allowed (specifically home runs) at a much better rate. I do not believe that Wang's xFIP accurately predicts his true ERA. The ability to generate consistant groundball outs is very valuable, even if it is in front of a terrible defense.

[sublime]

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Yes, there's a significant difference between them.

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there is a significant difference between sabathia and wang. there is a significant difference between wang and jon lester. the difference between wang and pettite isnt significant.

hes probably the better pitcher at this point, but i dont think they are in different categories when it comes to the common labels starting pitchers get.

[kyleb]

I disagree, for reasons I have already pointed out.

[Kos13]

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Hughes suffered a random freak injury that sidelined him for a significant amount of time; that was hardly predictable.

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Aside from his parents, I'm probably the biggest Hughes fan on the planet. I think he's going to be an unquestioned ace and an absolute superstar. That being said, he's not there yet. Much like 2001 Sabathia, 2007 Hughes needs time to grow, so I don't think you can give him credit as a 9 win (WARP) starter when evaluating this Yankee team.

Also, you can't really do the Joba-as-a-starter thing...the guy isn't even allowed to pitch on back-to-back days. Plus, if you counted him as a starter, you'd have to count Papelbon as one, too. However, even if you want to count Joba as a starter, that ignores things like 1) he's a rookie, 2) he wouldn't/couldn't be this dominant as a starter, and 3) without him, the Yankees would have a terrible, terrible bullpen. Especially when you consider that Clemens and Joba would be six inning guys, you have to factor in how many crappy innings that bullpen would log, how much more Rivera would have to pitch (making him less effective due to a higher workload), and how much more likely a Joba injury would be.

I get your argument, but I think you're leaving out a lot of big factors. You haven't even discussed how old the Yankee team is, how absolutely terrible their defense is (which hurts Wang a lot), and how little pitching depth they have.

The Sawx, on the other hand, have excellent depth and a great, great bullpen...and that's with Gagne struggling. They have one of the deepest, most versatile benches/platoon guys in the game, their lineup is excellent, and their starters are very good. The Indians have the best 1-2 punch in the game, maybe the best group of starters in the league, an equally good lineup, an extremely underrated bullpen that includes the most underrated player in all of baseball (Betancourt), and the best quality depth in the league. I really think you can make the argument for any of these three teams being the best, but factoring in every single thing, I give the Red Sox a slight, slight edge.

One thing that I love, though (I'm talking to you, Guy With "Pick Of Destiny" avatar), is that these are three of the four biggest SABR-focused teams in baseball (the fourth obviously being Oakland). I hate the Yankees, but I respect the way they evaluate players, and the other three teams are my three favorites. They are probably the four smartest, most successful franchises in the game, and that is because of their statistical evaluation. This game IS about numbers, and this "that's why they play the games" thing is dumb because we can freaking predict who will win all those games that end up being played on the field. It still amazes me that people scoff at sabermetrics after the prolonged success it has had, and anyone who isn't using these "new, crazy numbers" is simply not going to be as successful at predicting baseball outcomes.