Razz: raise the river? Fold 5th?

[betgo]

Razz ($15/$30), Ante $3, Bring-In $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (4.73 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.87 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (5.87 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

River - (7.87 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ???

Total pot: (13.87 BB - $416)

Results (in white):<font color="white">

Total pot $416 | Rake $3

Note: this site shuffles the hole cards.

</font>

[Praxising]

I would have started swearing at the screen on 5th, but I would not have folded it. I would call the river, not raise.

But - I think 2/4 is high stakes.

[roggles]

I like a fold on fifth. Optimistically he has a pair and it's pretty close. However, if he is not paired he has you crushed, and since we never know where we're at I think this hand has bad reverse implied odds.

You catch perfect-perfect and you're still afraid to value raise... however I think this is an obvious value raise on the river since he must have A2 to beat you and two aces are dead (2 is dead too but I'd never remember this in the hand).

You're a better player than me so I ask: did you not realize that he must have A2 to beat you, or am I fundamentally wrong about the likelihood of A2?

[Praxising]

I have been thinking lately about the "complete, call, call" scenario on 3rd, and how it gives you zero info when they complete with say, 4 or better. I'm starting to think I should always raise 4th if we both hit, so he has a chance to raise. Or maybe always raise 3rd to see what he does.

[tinkerman]

The only hand he can beat you with is the wheel. He would also be betting each street because of his strong board, it is possible that he is not even good after 5th, though I expect he has a hand.

Assuming he doesn't have an eight the cards that are left are 2 x ace, 3 x 2, 3x6 and 3x7. Again another assumption that he holds two of these means the chances of him having A-2 is around 1 in 6. So I expect you are ahead and could raise, though being a wuss myself, I'd just call.

[electrical]

Always raising Third may give you misleading information. With three wheel cards, he can't be a huge favorite until there's more of your board out there, so even if he's perfect he may wait until you think you're "even" to start pounding you, at which point you may be a huge dog.

You won't get stuck in a big pot the way you played it, but with the second nuts I'm raising the river. You made the best hand you could hope for, and if that isn't worth raising, then you should have folded Fifth.

Otherwise, what, you're drawing hoping to make a bluff-catcher?

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a fold on fifth. Optimistically he has a pair and it's pretty close. However, if he is not paired he has you crushed, and since we never know where we're at I think this hand has bad reverse implied odds.

You catch perfect-perfect and you're still afraid to value raise... however I think this is an obvious value raise on the river since he must have A2 to beat you and two aces are dead (2 is dead too but I'd never remember this in the hand).

You're a better player than me so I ask: did you not realize that he must have A2 to beat you, or am I fundamentally wrong about the likelihood of A2?

[/ QUOTE ]
very good analysis

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
You won't get stuck in a big pot the way you played it, but with the second nuts I'm raising the river.

[/ QUOTE ]Third nuts, actually, but in this case he has bet at every opportunity. Call me a nit, I'm calling.

"Always raising 3rd" is not what I was referring to. Raising when someone is showing a card less than 5 to give them a chance to reraise was what I said. And, yes, they might slow-play. Or not. But if I am going to try a raise for information, I'd rather try it on 3rd. No outcome of the raise is going to trouble me.

[betgo]

My style would be to never reraise 3rd with a 7 and cards kind of dead against an early position raiser.

[ceegee]

fold 5th, if not there than raise the river.