I MIGHT FOLD A SET PLZ BERATE ME!!!

[FishSticks]

Villain was like 60/0 over 150 hands and luckboxed himself a big stack in some weird cooler situations. He seems pretty loose passive, and WAY more prone to making bad calls than to making big bluffs. Note that we're sitting pretty deep here.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $81.60
BB: $202.45
UTG: $281.90
Hero (MP): $513.25
CO: $97
BTN: $40

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $1, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, 4 folds, UTG calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $45</font>, UTG calls $36

Okay so when he donks the flop I figure he has hand he really likes (as this isn't the norm for him), so I make a larger than pot sized raise here trying to get on track for getting it in by the end. Seems standard.

Turn: ($100.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $72</font>

Ugh what a card. Not sure what to do. I feel it's pretty likely he has a queen, and will probably stack off if I boat the river, but I'm not sure. I'm also worried that if I call and the river pairs with an A/K/Q I might also lose to a donkball AK/AQ. Meh.

[cs3]

i really dont mind a fold here. i think KQ/AQ are fairly likely here, and it really sucks when you pair the board on the river and stack youreself vs his 2 pair that just over boated you.
this is a pretty tough spot for sure




question:
if villain had 3 bet the flop are you happy stacking off 280BB's ?

[Imrahil]

Yeah just fold. I think fold &gt; call &gt; shove.

[blah-blah-blah]

call. it gets tricky if the river bricks and he inevitably fires out but i can't see folding this now.

[FishSticks]

[ QUOTE ]
if villain had 3 bet the flop are you happy stacking off 280BB's ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I was happy to get it all in on the flop. I think this guy would greatly overvalue AK/AJ/AT/JT in this situation, and even if he flopped broadway I have 35% equity if it goes in. I didn't really think he would bet/3bet *anything* though, since that wasn't really his style.

[sebbb]

you're deep and villain can beat you with only one card, so this would be a good spot to fold.

This being said, this could be an implied odds spot if you river a boat, but probably not worth it even if it was +ev (lots of variance, and it would make you tilt if you lost)

[markuisis]

I call turn expecting to be behind a decent amount of the time but getting good implied odds to stack him if we fill up and also expecting to c a lot of random two pairs in villains range, i fold river unimproved to any normal size bet.

[Speedlimits]

def. call this

[BGnight]

I think he has KQ or two pair. One of those is good. One of those is bad. I might call. If he pushes river I can fold.

[Peleus]

3.6-1 to make your boat on the river, pot odds are 2.4-1.

It boils down to do you think he will put in another $90 if you make your boat. If you think he will then make the call, if not then fold. With position to see if he leads out, and his tendency to call, and you can bet about $90 into a $250 pot to get paid, I'm leaning towards a call. I'd say he would call at least that if he board paired and he has a Q, and lets not forget he might not even have a Q to start with and you possibly have the best hand.