nl200 yawn..i want to fold a set

[cakewalk]

note: MP is another player. i am "hero".

[Dire]

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And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

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This is not a good thing. If big clubs and sets are his range then his range's equity slaughters hero's (eg- at the rediculous extreme, AcQc/AcKc/77/TT = 78% equity against 44!!). You need to have him show up with something like KK+ here rather frequently to make this a call. I don't often find nits slowplaying big pairs preflop, though. You get to see his hand regardless of if you fold or call. Take a note. If he does slowplay big pairs preflop then you'll have an easy decision next time a similar situation comes up.

[Ap0calypse]

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And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a good thing. If big clubs and sets are his range then his range's equity slaughters hero's (eg- at the rediculous extreme, AcQc/AcKc/77/TT = 78% equity against 44!!). You need to have him show up with something like KK+ here rather frequently to make this a call. I don't often find nits slowplaying big pairs preflop, though. You get to see his hand regardless of if you fold or call. Take a note. If he does slowplay big pairs preflop then you'll have an easy decision next time a similar situation comes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about 8c9c / 5c6c / AcTc / TcXc ...tilt, naked flush draw, misplayed JJ+

You can't fold here with 100BBs you just can't

[dragonystic]

oh geez, im a retard. pay no attention to my post.

[blah-blah-blah]

CO is trying to iso MP so I really can't see him showing up w/ a draw very often if ever. this is TT/77 so often. I could see calling if we know he doesn't always 3 bet JJ+ but I don't think i hate a fold here especially if you think he's a big nit. that said I still don't know if I can fold because people do wierd things from time to time (mike baxter on HSP iso shoving over farha w/ KQ for example).

[bilbo-san]

I think you can actually fold here if you have a read.

But "18/12, seems like a nit" isn't a read.

People need to learn to take notes. How hard can it be?

CO could be the type who always slowplays sets. Or the type who thinks that MP is usually FoS here and is trying to protect his QQ vs. your perceived draw. Or all kinds of things. 18/12/nitty just doesn't say a whole lot about how he plays sets, draws, or overpairs, which are the 3 relevant issues.


Since you are opting to play readless, get it in. If you want to start folding bottom set for 100 BBs, start taking better notes.

If he never plays overpairs like this, it's barely a call (if I did my math right, you are calling $183 to win $495, which is pot odds for which you'd need 37%; the fact that there is a side pot is irrelevant because against this range there aren't really many scenarios where you'd win the side but lose the main, or vice versa).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,831,284 games 0.050 secs 36,625,680 games/sec

Board: Th 7c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.163% 39.16% 00.00% 717177 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 13.386% 13.36% 00.02% 244680 450.00 { TT+, 77, 44, ATs, ATo }
Hand 2: 47.452% 47.43% 00.02% 868527 450.00 { TT, 77, 44, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 8c6c, 6c5c }


So, knowing how he plays overpairs would be a REALLY useful read, don't ya think?

[Dire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a good thing. If big clubs and sets are his range then his range's equity slaughters hero's (eg- at the rediculous extreme, AcQc/AcKc/77/TT = 78% equity against 44!!). You need to have him show up with something like KK+ here rather frequently to make this a call. I don't often find nits slowplaying big pairs preflop, though. You get to see his hand regardless of if you fold or call. Take a note. If he does slowplay big pairs preflop then you'll have an easy decision next time a similar situation comes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about 8c9c / 5c6c / AcTc / TcXc ...tilt, naked flush draw, misplayed JJ+

You can't fold here with 100BBs you just can't

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing the issue here. First off, an 18/12 nit isn't cold calling a short stack on the button with suited connectors. But even if he were, him having 5c6c, 8c9c type stuff in his range doesn't really change the matter. Hero has just about zero equity against 77/TT. Against flush draws, he has about 66% equity. 77/TT are much much more likely than flush draws. Villain needs to have something in his range somewhat frequently that we do well against, to make this a call.

This brings us back to the initial requirement - that villain is frequently cold calling preflop with big pairs. If you have this read and can put KK+ in his range with any level of certainty, then it's an easy call. But most nits do not slowplay big pairs preflop - so you cannot simply assume this is the case.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
And definitely don't ever fold this, nits are shoving AcQc in spots like this because they finally found a flop they like.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a good thing. If big clubs and sets are his range then his range's equity slaughters hero's (eg- at the rediculous extreme, AcQc/AcKc/77/TT = 78% equity against 44!!). You need to have him show up with something like KK+ here rather frequently to make this a call. I don't often find nits slowplaying big pairs preflop, though. You get to see his hand regardless of if you fold or call. Take a note. If he does slowplay big pairs preflop then you'll have an easy decision next time a similar situation comes up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about 8c9c / 5c6c / AcTc / TcXc ...tilt, naked flush draw, misplayed JJ+

You can't fold here with 100BBs you just can't

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing the issue here. First off, an 18/12 nit isn't cold calling a short stack on the button with suited connectors. But even if he were, him having 5c6c, 8c9c type stuff in his range doesn't really change the matter. Hero has just about zero equity against 77/TT. Against flush draws, he has about 66% equity. 77/TT are much much more likely than flush draws. Villain needs to have something in his range somewhat frequently that we do well against, to make this a call.

This brings us back to the initial requirement - that villain is frequently cold calling preflop with big pairs. If you have this read and can put KK+ in his range with any level of certainty, then it's an easy call. But most nits do not slowplay big pairs preflop - so you cannot simply assume this is the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thoughts about what 18/12s will cold-call with here are very wrong.

An 18/17 would re-raise/fold most SCs here. An 18/12 is cold-calling them almost always, and rarely folding them, unless his his VPiP is very high in position (in which case it must be very low from the blinds/UTG to get down to 18%).

Most 18/12s are a little tighter than TAGs, but not overly so, and limp too much, and call too much from the blinds with speculative hands that they think are easy and profitable to play (i.e. hit-big-or-fold hands), such as SCs and pairs, and only 3-bet premiums from the blinds (hence the VPiP/Pfr gap). It's very common for players with this profile to think that SCs have much greater implied odds than they actually do.

[Dire]

Yo, initial raiser is very short.

Even beyond that 18/12 = raising decent aces/pairs in EP, cold calling pairs from any position, cold calling good aces/suited broadyway from most any position and a reasonable-tight mid/late position opening range.

Add cold calling short stacked late position raisers with suited connectors (eg- meaning he's cold calling any raiser with suited connectors) and his VPIP almost certainly goes above 18. Go as low as 56s and one gappers and that VPIP is going well above 18 real fast.

[bilbo-san]

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Yo, initial raiser is very short.

Even beyond that 18/12 = raising decent aces/pairs in EP, cold calling pairs from any position, cold calling good aces/suited broadyway from most any position and a reasonable-tight mid/late position opening range.

Add cold calling short stacked late position raisers with suited connectors (eg- meaning he's cold calling any raiser with suited connectors) and his VPIP almost certainly goes above 18. Go as low as 56s and one gappers and that VPIP is going well above 18 real fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Pokerstove, this is 14.2% of hands:

77+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AJo+,KQ o

Eliminate KTs and the A2s-A9s, and you get 11.8% of hands. OH LOOK, what a coincidence, this guy seems to think that 12% of hands are "good" hands and raises them preflop.

This also looks like a lot of what I always see from these guys cold-calling from the blinds with. So my experience + pokerstove lead me to believe that SCs are within his range.

But, I dunno, you could just blindly trust your back-of-the-envelope equations instead.