|
|
#12
10-02-2007, 06:00 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
Tease the [censored] out of KC at +8 (+2 on spread). IMO they match up close to even on a neutral field right now. That KC Run O is getting in flow just in time to face the Jags suspect Run D. Unlikely Jax can continue to only average 1.0 turnover/game too.
|
|
#13
10-02-2007, 06:38 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
I wasn't interested in Chicago until hearing the BSP remarks in here. In fact, I was thinking GB was probably the right side, but had no intention of betting.
What I did want to say is that Bills +10.5 and Bucs +10.5 both look amazing to me. Two of the greatest plays so far this year, IMO. I'm also gonna do something very rare for myself and bet a big BSP team, the Pats, if I can get -14. They look like one of those square teams that just covers all year long and pumps up square bankrolls. I knew I'd be upset that I didn't take -7.5 this week, but I was already upset that it opened at -6 at Pinny and I couldn't bet it until it showed up on Bodog at -7.5. I thought -6 looked laughable last week, and I think -14 looks laughable this week.
|
|
#14
10-02-2007, 09:09 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
God help me but I'm a BSP this week on GB. If this game was in Chicago I wouldn't be nearly as interested, but I find it tough to imagine a 1-3 team being favored by 2-3 points over a 4-0 team at home, so this line feels off to me.
Same reasoning for Sea +6. Find it hard to believe they'd be pick'em in Seattle. Same reasoning for SD, although the way Denver just rolled over and died in Indi just makes me really nervous. They looked like they went out of their way to avoid even covering the spread. Bucs +10 or more and ML +450 or more look really attractive to me. - C -
|
|
#15
10-02-2007, 09:50 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
Watching the game last week made me as angry on Chicago as I had been in years. They gave the game away. They committed absolutely stupid penalties, threw absolutely stupid passes, handed the other team at least 20 points last week. But...
These mistakes are all correctable. It's not a lack of talent even on defense where even the no name guys were shutting down detroit's pass offense in detroit. Chicago can't be any worse than right now and GB can't be better than right now. Seems like a simple buy low sell high situation. I'm hoping the public really pushes that line for GB so I can bet Chicago later.
|
|
#16
10-02-2007, 10:33 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
Are you concerned about the 2 TB injuries?
NE starting to look like MichSt the year they won CBB as favorite, people betting them to cover with both hands until their arms fall off down the stretch, and the covered a whole lotta games, including the last 6.
|
|
#17
10-02-2007, 11:12 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Atl +9 @Tenn - Huh, the Titans have played well thru 3 games but -9? I'm not sure the bye helps them in this case given that it's so early, they're a young team, and they had some momentum going. I figured this to be around 5 given that Atlanta has yet to really be manhandled as bad as they may be. [/ QUOTE ] The line is 8.5, nice job. Isn't there some stat out there that home favorites coming off bye weeks fail to cover a decent percentage of the time? I don't recall if the sample size is large enough to bet this kind of system blindly though.
|
|
#18
10-02-2007, 11:41 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
[ QUOTE ]
God help me but I'm a BSP this week on GB. If this game was in Chicago I wouldn't be nearly as interested, but I find it tough to imagine a 1-3 team being favored by 2-3 points over a 4-0 team at home, so this line feels off to me. [/ QUOTE ] I see the line as GB -3, not +3. If it hits 3.5 (and it looks like it will), I'm betting Chicago.
|
|
#19
10-02-2007, 11:55 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] God help me but I'm a BSP this week on GB. If this game was in Chicago I wouldn't be nearly as interested, but I find it tough to imagine a 1-3 team being favored by 2-3 points over a 4-0 team at home, so this line feels off to me. [/ QUOTE ] I see the line as GB -3, not +3. If it hits 3.5 (and it looks like it will), I'm betting Chicago. [/ QUOTE ] PSU is saying that with the current line, if the game had been in Chicago, the Bears would be -3. Which makes no sense, hence this line doesn't look like a great play to him.
|
|
#20
10-02-2007, 04:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Early Misc Week 5 Lines
Jax is always risky to bet against no matter who they play. They had the 4th best rush D last year and this year they have potentially faced 3 of the top 8 Rush Os from last year, 8th being Denver and clearly Den is better running the ball this year. I wouldnt expect much from LJ. The person that deserves more attention on their offense than LJ is Dwanye Bowe 6-3 217, hes the contributing factor thats won them their last two games. He could be the Colston of yesteryear. I think Jax wins this game but KC is capable. Its a very iffy game though I wouldn't bet either side.
[ QUOTE ] Tease the [censored] out of KC at +8 (+2 on spread). IMO they match up close to even on a neutral field right now. That KC Run O is getting in flow just in time to face the Jags suspect Run D. Unlikely Jax can continue to only average 1.0 turnover/game too. [/ QUOTE ]
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
