General Blind Steal Spot

[Hi5]

I am only raising flop/turn against a maniac here. My standard line is to call down.

[Gurravasa]

I use different lines in this situation depending on villain. Against the craziest maniacs I call down and let them bluff every street. Against agressive bluff-happy players I raise flop and bet safe turn. If A or K on turn I check behind and induce a bluff on river or save myself from getting c/r:ed. In HU I don't wait for turn to raise often.

[vmacosta]

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nina,
how many hands do you need to have on somebody before sd stats are meaningful? I always assumed it was a bunch and i have 200+ hands on maybe only 1/5 people i play.

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the standard deviation for WTSD is:

49%/sqrt(Nflopseen) ~ 49%/sqrt(Nhands*VPIP/100%) ~ 49%/sqrt(Nhands/3)

~85%/sqrt(Nhands)

so after 1000 hands WTSD is determined within 2.7% with 68% confidence and within 5.4% with 95% confidence.

after 10000 hands these numbers are 0.85% and 1.7% respectively

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whoops, that should have been obvious. thanks for helping the lazy and ignorant.

[Heisenb3rg]

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MacG,
here are some general rules of thumb but as long as you don't fold all lines are viable sometimes.

If pfr<15, you can just call down and bet if checked to.

If 15<pfr<25, you should listen to sharpie and yourface.

If pfr>25 you really need to pound away at this flop cuz you will be pounding with all draws here too.

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I think this is true for the SB...
In my opinion I find BB re-raises from a much tigher re-raise range on average than other posistions.
Id need a pretty strong read to put in any more than 1 raise somewhere.

I agree with the first two sentences though.