General Blind Steal Spot

[MacGuyV]

You open JT in CO. Folded to BB who 3bets.

Flop T85.

What kind of stats do you need on villian to raise the flop or turn?

[sharpie]

As long as his PF range isn't very narrow, I'm usually calling the flop and raising a non A/K/Q turn.

[yourface]

I also like waiting until the turn in this spot. I'm going to be calling that flop with a lot of unpaired hands so I like mixing in calling with some TP hands.

you will end up getting some free cards when you need them if villain gets too scared of a turn raise to fire 2 barrels with AJ/AQ/AK

[vmacosta]

MacG,
here are some general rules of thumb but as long as you don't fold all lines are viable sometimes.

If pfr<15, you can just call down and bet if checked to.

If 15<pfr<25, you should listen to sharpie and yourface.

If pfr>25 you really need to pound away at this flop cuz you will be pounding with all draws here too.

[Leader]

For the raise turn guys, what are we doing with a 3-bet?

[NinaWilliams]

wow I just about never raise the turn here. Also, wtsd is just an important for me as pfr. Also, i'll raise more often when the flop contains 2 to a flush. In general I just call down and bet when checked to unless I have a read that villain does retarded stuff like 3 bet AK and 77 or calls down A high too much.

[vmacosta]

nina,
how many hands do you need to have on somebody before sd stats are meaningful? I always assumed it was a bunch and i have 200+ hands on maybe only 1/5 people i play.

[thepizzlefosho]

[ QUOTE ]
For the raise turn guys, what are we doing with a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

if he 3-bets the turn and I don't have a note that he will spew or bluff I call and fold the river UI.

I think VMA's guideliness are pretty solid, and I would recommend the same. For the most part I'm calling down most nits or LPs, and I'll be raising the flop or turn depending on how LAGGY they are.

[Oink]

When you raise the turn you are targeting call downs from lower pairs if he doesnt bet/call down AK, AQ and AJ.

In other words I need to be pretty sure he calls down with those, because if he doesnt I doubt you have a +EV turn raise.

Since a flop raise represents a less strong hand - at least when I do it - I like a flop raise more as it is more likely that he will call down Ax IMO.


@ vmacosta and Nina.

You need several thousands of hands to be sure of the wtsd. I have often played +1k hand sessions where my wtsd is either 32 or 43. Long term its about 38.

I think notes and dynamics are more meaningful to figure out how SD bound he is after less hands than 1000.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
nina,
how many hands do you need to have on somebody before sd stats are meaningful? I always assumed it was a bunch and i have 200+ hands on maybe only 1/5 people i play.

[/ QUOTE ]

the standard deviation for WTSD is:

49%/sqrt(Nflopseen) ~ 49%/sqrt(Nhands*VPIP/100%) ~ 49%/sqrt(Nhands/3)

~85%/sqrt(Nhands)

so after 1000 hands WTSD is determined within 2.7% with 68% confidence and within 5.4% with 95% confidence.

after 10000 hands these numbers are 0.85% and 1.7% respectively