Live KQ Turn Bluff with Air

[JJH3984]

Weak-Tight/Weak-Passive live 10 game at Foxwoods

Villian is live TAGy. That is to say, he doesn't cold call too much and doesn't make the worst possible play on every street. He is losing and seems to be a folding tilter rather than a go apeshit on the turn with bad hand values tilter. He's made comments about having to fold top pair 5 times that day in HU pots.

My image is super nitty. I've only shown down strong winners or mucked to the nuts so far.

Someone limps. I raise with KQo two off UTG. Villian Cold Calls. Some typical/passive guy cold calls. The BB calls.

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4

I bet. Villian Calls. Everyone else folds.

Turn:2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet. Villian Raises. I Think for a Second and Threebet planning to c/f the river if he calls unless I spike a K or Q.

Is this horrible?

[jesse8888]

Without a read, this sounds terrible to me. With your read, perhaps not. What pocket pairs do you expect he might lay down? What pocket pairs would he have 3 bet pre-flop? Also, is AK currently still in his range? I'd think he'd 3-bet that preflop, but I've seen stranger things.

You're asking him to fold for 1 big bet in a pot that currently contains 11. That is asking a lot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
Without a read, this sounds terrible to me. With your read, perhaps not. What pocket pairs do you expect he might lay down? What pocket pairs would he have 3 bet pre-flop? Also, is AK currently still in his range? I'd think he'd 3-bet that preflop, but I've seen stranger things.

You're asking him to fold for 1 big bet in a pot that currently contains 11. That is asking a lot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is a signifigant (25-40%) chance he'll fold every PP in his range except 77. He probably threebets with JJ+ and AK. He range preflop is probably AJ-AQ, ATs-AQs, KQ, KQs, and 77-TT. He has 77-TT a fairly large percentage of the time when he raises the turn. I'd never do this without a read as even in this very specialized situation (basically the best possible conditions), I'm not sure its right.

[KitCloudkicker]

cant say i've ever done this but against villains range sounds reasonable.

he either has 77 and is capping the turn (which you fold) or he's folding. and theres a lot more ways for him not to have 77 then there are for him to have 77.

and as for logic behind villains turn raise, it sure looks to me like he's value raising/free showdowning (and i bet villain doesnt know which) something like 66-TT.

[KitCloudkicker]

btw JJH whats your play if you had AA/KK in this spot? 3 bet the turn, or call and donk all rivers?

[jesse8888]

Given your read, this looks like a good play to me. However, I wouldn't be shocked if he calls you down with some of those pocket pairs. It's going to be 2 big bets to win 12, so he might go for it.

[Piemaster]

If he's on tight and/or passive tilt and isn't the type to 'go apeshit on the turn with bad hand values', then I would imagine that he would raise 88-TT on the flop. I think you are looking at 77, 22 or a 4 most of the time here.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your read, this looks like a good play to me. However, I wouldn't be shocked if he calls you down with some of those pocket pairs. It's going to be 2 big bets to win 12, so he might go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's made comments about having to fold top pair 5 times that day in HU pots



i doubt hes calling.

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
btw JJH whats your play if you had AA/KK in this spot? 3 bet the turn, or call and donk all rivers?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against this villian calling turn and donking every river is expert with AA-JJ I think. Its not something i do often though.

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's on tight and/or passive tilt and isn't the type to 'go apeshit on the turn with bad hand values', then I would imagine that he would raise 88-TT on the flop. I think you are looking at 77, 22 or a 4 most of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, given my read, he should never have 22 or a hand that contains a 4. Let's handread a bit here. I think this particular player is more likely to raise 77 on the flop when fishy passive players are more likely to call and tie themselves to the pot. When someone with TAGy tendencies calls a flop with passive players left to act then raises the turn, I'm less likely to give them credit for a big hand than some kind of free showdown play with a weaker made hand.