Is this river raise -EV?

[that_pope]

CAZ 20/40: UTG Limps, 3 others limp, I limp in CO with KQo (still not comfortable raising this here), SB calls, BB checks.

Flop QQJ rainbow. SB Checks, BB bets, UTG calls, 2 other callers, I raise, SB folds, all 4 call.

Turn 6. Checked to me, I bet, BB calls, UTG raises, 2 others fold, I call, BB folds.

River 5 no flush possible. UTG bets, I contemplated my move before seeing the river that I would raise, and fold to a 3-bet, so I do just that.....

Note on UTG, he seems to pay off a bit after the flop, but hasn't got very out of line preflop. That being said, I expect a raise UTG with AQ, so its hard for him to have a better Q, so all I can be worried about are QJ and 66, but what other Qs would he have that I can beat, QT and maybe a weak Q9s......

Note on me: The guy next to the UTG has mentioned at least twice how tight I am playing, and everytime I bet, I have the best hand. It has been one of those weird sessions where I either have a big hand or nothing, and have had no chances to bluff at all, since it is a fairly loose game. I have also played very few hands not in the blinds...

That is why I am curious if my river raise is worthwhile

Results in white: <font color="white">He thought for awhile, I think he tried to fold, but couldn't bring himself to it, and finally called with KdQd and we chop it up. If he almost folded, then my raise was +EV in this exact instance. </font>

[cowboy billy]

I decided to write this before reading results, so I don't know the outcome yet

pot is to big for me to raise/fold, so I'm calling

you're not going to win a lot of extra bets from worse hands anyway, bc there aren't that many, unless he frequently limps in with garbage and could also be holding suited Q's with all sorts of kickers

also, I'm raising pre all day

[bakku]

3-bet the turn

[jstill]

what hands do u expect him to limp in with a Q utg? theres not that many, QJ 3 QT Q9 are less likely and only 4 each whereas u lose to 4 and chop with 3 he plays this way (and thats only if QT and Q9 off are undiscounted as well as AQ).

if he could call this flop with 66 as well (being the type to always want to see the next card with any PP and their 20:1 longshot) ur slightly behind his range, throw in he could be the type to not raise Jacks becuz "an overcard always flops" and ur now behind 13:8 and offering up odds since JJ maybe AQ and definitely QJ the nuts will put in another raise. If u argue u can always safely fold to a 3bet so ur not offering up odds, I have no counterpoints but its a flawed assumption at least slightly.

I dont put another raise anywhere in this hand. If i had AQ id 3bet the turn and calldown a cap, either way i wouldnt raise fold this river if i just called the turn cr, just incase he 3bets with KQ instead of contemplating folding (which he was never actually going to do btw, no donkey folds trips gk i promise).

even putting in another raise with AQ after the turn cr is close i think, here ur just getting urself in trouble id say unless hes the type to limp a ton of crappy Qs up front and always play them this way (putting in a turn cr even tho u raised this flop after multiple callers as the pfr aka u have trips gk). the latter is probably a fair assumption vs most live donks, theyre just playing their hand.

[ProfessorBen]

You need to either 3-bet this turn or raise the river. There are a few broadway draws out there so I don't like keeping BB in so my initial instinct is to 3-bet the turn. However, raising the river means you won't be 3-bet against much.

[private joker]

Raising the river is fine if you can fold to a 3-bet.

I also raise PF 100% of the time, but to be honest limping here isn't terrible. KQo kinda blows in a large multi-way pot, but if you can buy the button (you're CO) then it could be worth the extra SB investment.

[cgrohman]

What do you think on 3 betting the turn vs. raising the river? I 3 bet the turn almost always here without even thinking (hand chips, chips in pot) and now I'm rethinking it. Then again, I often see people limp utg with Q7

[ProfessorBen]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think on 3 betting the turn vs. raising the river? I 3-bet the turn almost always here without even thinking (hand chips, chips in pot) and now I'm rethinking it. Then again, I often see people limp utg with Q7

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasons for Raising Turn:
Charge a flush or straight draw if they exist on the board.
Avoid Villain check/calling the river.

Reasons for Raising the River:
Villain might not be able to get away from seeing showdown for 1 more bet whereas he would fold on the turn.
Deception.
Villain is less likely to 3 bet with a stronger holding.
Shania.

Of all these, I think the most important one is whether villain check/calls the river. If there is any chance of that I'm 3-betting almost always. Once I'm 90%+ sure he's betting again, I start to consider the other points.