Impossible River Value Bet?

[that_pope]

Hello all, this hand happened a few months ago at the 20/40 game at Casino AZ. It was about 3 hours in, and we were at table #2 of the three must moves. I had already lost a big pot to this player when I flopped a nut straight to his middle set that filled up on the river. He is a strong player who isn't in there mixing it up with weak hands, but also someone I don't see bluffing very much.

UTG+1 I raise with JJ, LP1 calls, as does LP2, the villain described above. Everyone else folds except the BB, who also calls.

Flop KJT rainbow. BB checks, I bet, LP1 calls, LP2 raises, BB folds, I threebet, LP1 folds, LP2 calls.

Turn K. I bet, LP1 calls.

River K. I...

Lets get some thoughts before I go through my thinking.

[Brunger]

interesting spot seems unlikely we are behind so I bet unless he is silly enough to bluff a naked queen if checked to. If raised I think you can fold.

[W. Deranged]

Basically, the way I see it:

1. You are almost never losing here.

2. There really aren't that many hands your opponent can have here that are calling (the most likely is probably QTs, then QJ and JT; TT is an outside possibility). Pocket pairs are all unlikely based on the profile you've given, with the exception of the oddly played AA, QQ, or 99 (two of which beat you).

3. Your opponent doesn't like to bluff.


Against an opponent capable of bluffing here, I really like checking this river. Because the deck is so crippled (only one J and the one K available), there's reason to believe that your opponent is more likely to put in a bet as a river bluff than as a crying call. BUT, based on reads, if he's not that splashy his flop raise likely indicates a pair+draw hand (which is calling a river bet) and, when it doesn't, he's likely not to bluff the river anyway.

So I bet this river against this opponent.

[cgrohman]

I couldn't fold to a raise. QJ raises here often enough to call down.

[danzasmack]

what is so strange about this river spot? He shouldn't have QQ. You think he slowplayed a K? Bet/call. I would raise a J for value here vs. most anyone if I had position.

[blindside]

i check/call... i just can't see some sort T playing this way enough in order for bet/call to be profitable... and even then he might bet it for you when you check to him in those instances... and you'll see a desperate bluff more often than a bluff raise here.... though both are also minute possibilities if your read is correct...

if you can really trust him.. bet/fold is probably right... though it's kind of dangerous cause a J is as likely as a K here...

i say he probably has AQ/KQ in this spot...

[dcb777]

Bet fold is terrible in this spot. This is a big pot. Bet/call is the best option although check call is certainly better than bet fold and its not close.

[blindside]

yeah you're right. i was just thinking out loud there.

[Ballers83]

I bet/call the river. I really dont see how we're beat here. If he has the case king, he probably would have raises turn. AA or QQ would have 3-bet preflop. Hope he has something like Q-10 and force him to make a crying call

[jogger08152]

If he makes you for a LAG, there are enough hands that he can hold (and lose with) that you should definitely bet/call.

If he makes you for a TAG, he can have AKs or AK, with which he will raise and win, KQs, with which he will raise and win, AQs (which will fold to your bet), AQ (ditto), AA (with which he will call and win), QQ (with which he will call and win). If he reads you for an especially tight player, he could also hold TT, with which he will call and lose.

His play would be a little bit weird with any of these holdings, but QQ is what I'd most expect him to show you. AQs and AQ are next most likely, but you won't see 'em unless you check.

Some hands he definitely won't have if your read is right (unless, of course, he makes you for a maniac) are QTs, QJs, etc.

Check and call even though you said he doesn't bluff much, since you don't have a read that he has the nuts.

Best regards,
Jogger