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  #71  
Old 02-13-2007, 07:28 PM
Felix_Nietzsche Felix_Nietzsche is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Lone Star State
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Default Re: China: A Paper-Mache Dragon

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What happens when USA gets involved into a military conflict with a country that is theoretically capable of retaliating on a 9/11 scale.

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The dynamics that made 9/11 possible (low security on aircraft) is no longer the case. Iran is a rabbit compare to the USA.. The USA can crushed them anytime they get the political will. If Iran attempted a 9/11 type attack, then this would be the dumbest attack since Japans atttack on Peral Harbor.

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Financial instruments of US government are only as valuable if their backing.

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True, China it at the mercy of the USA to honor these financial instruments. It is like the joke of a broke businessman that see his minister saying his loans are due on Monday but he doesn't have the money. His minister says, "My son you have no problem, it is THE BANK that has the problem".

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So, the security of US investments will be diminished, and their backing will also be diminished by engaging in another costly and unproductive military adventure that is by your admission very likely to increase oil prices by 30-50% (you said gas will go up a buck), which will hurt the economy even more.

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I don't accept your premise that a war will Iran will harm the American economy. If gas goes up a buck, the American govt can always eliminate the $0.50 a gallon taxes to soften the economic blow.

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We have outsourced a lot of our industrial production, and it will take a lot of time and money to rebuild it if we need to do it.

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The American consumer will be hardest hit by no longer being able to buy plastic wrist watches at $9.99 a piece. Also the price of plastic tupperwear bowls will rised dramatically. Those will be dark days indeed. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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  #72  
Old 02-13-2007, 08:06 PM
Girchuck Girchuck is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 925
Default Re: China: A Paper-Mache Dragon

Forget about aircraft.
I am uncertain if you remember the blackout of 2003, as it probably didn't hit Texas, but it did hit the North-East pretty bad for a few days. That blackout was caused by a fallen tree which overloaded the grid, and led to cascading failures.
The grid is our biggest weakness. It is old, and interdependent, and vulnerable to attack. If we attack Iran, our infrastructure will be the target of retaliation.
The attacks on our infrastructure will unfortunately be quite cheap and have potential to cause a lot of damage. They will be difficult to stop, and easy to perpetrate.
Moreover, if US actually bombs Iranian oil fileds as you originally proposed, they will have very little else to lose.

China is not the only country that is at the mercy of USA to honor the dollar. A broke businessman that will default on his debts will find it hard to buy stuff in the future, no matter how much THE BANK will suffer.

A lot of US economy consists of marketing and selling products made in China. Slow down the flow of these products, and you'll see marketing executives getting the axe, and store chains, like Walmart raising prices, and importers going broke, and profits dropping, and stocks going down, and recession, and unemployment, and very unpleasant things. Its not about cheap plastic crap anymore.
I haven't seen a "Made in USA" label for a very long time.
We are all in this together, and we will all fall together.
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  #73  
Old 02-13-2007, 09:28 PM
MidGe MidGe is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Shame on you, Blackwater!
Posts: 3,908
Default Re: China: A Paper-Mache Dragon

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Iran is a rabbit compare to the USA.. The USA can crushed them anytime they get the political will.

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Yeah, heard it all before like Vietnam and Iraq, right? You guys are coming out with such statements that one wonder if you get any news at all in the US.
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