China's anti-satellite test

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Because their good business partners Uncle Bucky and Brother Neil still have influence in the Administration.
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[bobman0330]

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I've never read Tom Clancy, but it stands to reason that it is a very plausible scenario. If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years, and China has had an imperialistic culture for thousands of years. Not that I don't like very much certain other aspects of Chinese culture, especially art and music. It is a rich culture, but it is also decidedly very strict and imperialistic. China is very patiently building up and modernizing with the eventual aim of winning a war with the USA, if that's what is required for China to become the world's largest hegemon.

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I'm not sure how you can argue that China has become more totalitarian in recent years, but that's beside the point. China is certainly a long-term threat to the peace and independence of the region of SE Asia, but I think it's a little far-fetched to worry about a Chinese thread to the US. Unless the Bering Land Bridge reemerges, their big army isn't going to be that useful.

I think this test is much more about showing off and playing to nationalist sentiment at home than shooting down GPS satellites and pulling off a second Pearl Harbor.

[andyfox]

"If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years"

This is simply untrue. The government has relaxed its hold in many areas of the country, especially those areas where capitalist economic arrangement pertain. And it stands to reason that, as more liberal economic policies proliferate, as well as more and more cultural contct with the outside world, that the outdated political arrangements will come under increasing pressure.

Anyway, since you feel China will be attacking us, what should we do about it? A preemptive strike?

[Skidoo]

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China is an enemy of the USA.

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According to whom? Not Congress, not Wal-Mart.

[John Kilduff]

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I've never read Tom Clancy, but it stands to reason that it is a very plausible scenario. If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years, and China has had an imperialistic culture for thousands of years. Not that I don't like very much certain other aspects of Chinese culture, especially art and music. It is a rich culture, but it is also decidedly very strict and imperialistic. China is very patiently building up and modernizing with the eventual aim of winning a war with the USA, if that's what is required for China to become the world's largest hegemon.

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I'm not sure how you can argue that China has become more totalitarian in recent years, but that's beside the point. China is certainly a long-term threat to the peace and independence of the region of SE Asia, but I think it's a little far-fetched to worry about a Chinese thread to the US. Unless the Bering Land Bridge reemerges, their big army isn't going to be that useful.

I think this test is much more about showing off and playing to nationalist sentiment at home than shooting down GPS satellites and pulling off a second Pearl Harbor.

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China has definitelly become more totalitarian in recent years, as evidenced by its increasingly stringent and heavy handed crackdowns and policing of means of expression, including over the internet. Censorship and the like in China is UP.

The scenario I am describing is obviously not immediate--if by far-fetched you mean far-off, then OK...but I don't think it's a far-fetched scenario given 2 to 3 decades. Of course it might not occur but it very well might also.

As for China's army, China is fast developing a "blue water"
Navy, and overall offensive military capability. Give them 20 or 30 years and they will easily reach a near-parity with U.S. conventional forces, plus have a far larger Army, plus likely have the means to nullify much of the USA's hi-tech advantage in weapons systems. They recently shadowed a U.S. aircraft carrier, which was a shocker, and the shadowing sub was within range of devastating torpedo attack. China just shot down their own weather satellite which had a higher orbit than U.S. military satellites and which would be harder to shoot down. The U.S. currently possesses great hi-tech advantages, but such things are vulnerable to asymmetric countermeasures and China should be in a position to implement such countermeasures in decades to come, particularly if the U.S. does not itself proceed with a program of military space hegemony. Anti-satellite is easier and more cost-effective that satellite systems.

[John Kilduff]

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"If anything, China has become more totalitarian in recent years"

This is simply untrue. The government has relaxed its hold in many areas of the country, especially those areas where capitalist economic arrangement pertain. And it stands to reason that, as more liberal economic policies proliferate, as well as more and more cultural contct with the outside world, that the outdated political arrangements will come under increasing pressure.

Anyway, since you feel China will be attacking us, what should we do about it? A preemptive strike?

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No, it's quite true; with increasing openness of capitalism in China in recent years has also come increasing government censorship and political repression. I'll try to dig up an article or two for you about it, but give me a couple days.

I don't think a pre-emptive strike would be a good idea to deal with the looming long-term Chinese military threat. That would probably be a terrible idea. Actually, I'm not sure what a good idea would be [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[John Kilduff]

edit time exp[ired , but I think it might have been a large other major military vessel (not an aircaraft carrier?), that China shadowed within torpedo distance with a sub...it doesn't really matter exactly what major ship was shadowed, the point was that China was not thought to even have that blue-water capability to do such a thing: surprise, surprise. That shadowed vessel could have been sunk.

[AlexM]

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China is an enemy of the USA.

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You seem to have confused the words "enemy" and "ally". I understand how easy it is to confuse them.

[John Kilduff]

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China is an enemy of the USA.

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According to whom? Not Congress, not Wal-Mart.

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How about according to some of China's top generals, who openly threatened the U.S. with nuclear devastation and loss of the city of Los Angeles and other cities, should the U.S. ever dare to interfere if it were to come to a military solution to Taiwan reunification? How about perhaps according to China's small coterie of top Communist Party leadership, which actually rules the country?

The USA does not have to consider China (or Iran) an enemy, to have an enemy. If China's top military and political leadership considers the U.S. the adversary and (to some extent) an enemy, then what? If Iran's nutcase leadership considers the USA their enemy and a spawn of the Devil, then what? Iran's top leadership has stated that no reconciliation is possible with the USA and that anyone who promotes such a thing is a traitor. So what if the USA were to try to reach an accordance and good will with such an enemy?

It takes two willing sides for peace; but it only takes one side to have an enemy or a fight or a war.

[Felix_Nietzsche]

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According to whom?

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Pardon me if I have mistaken the tone of your remarks.
But with regard to our god buddies the Chi-Coms, have you ever hear of the Korean War when the Communist Chinese launch a suprised attack on USA troops resulting in 33,000 dead? Or have you heard the testimony from FBI agents stated that Communist China is engaged is large scale conterfeiting of US currecy (aka economic warfare)? Or have you heard the threats from a Chi-Com general to nuke the Western USA should we decide to honor our military alliance with Taiwan?
Have you?

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According to whom? Not Congress, not Wal-Mart.

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Perhaps we are in agreement here.
I find it extremely disturbing the large scale investment in communist China. If war breaks out, these companies deserve to lose 100% of their investment. The Chi-Coms are engage in large scale theft of software, technology, and films.

True story...my brother went to Paris with his bride and they went to some of the upscale stores. They were about to walk in some fancy-smancy purse store and an Chinese women gave them about $500 in francs and asked them to buy a purse for her. Evidently the store refuses to sell their purses to orientals for fear of counterfeiting. Or at least that is the story I was told. While in the store, they started feeling weird about buying a purse for this lady so they walked out and gave her back her money....