Early 4/180, 99 button

Neuge · #1 10-25-2006, 05:58 AM

MP1 got lucky early and has been limping every pot since. SB played absolutely nothing until a few hands ago and has been calling almost everything pf since.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1920)
UTG+1 (t1260)
MP1 (t3785)
MP2 (t1535)
MP3 (t1495)
CO (t1135)
Hero (t1425)
SB (t1455)
BB (t1360)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t30, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero raises to t120, SB calls t105, BB calls t90, MP1 calls t90

Flop: (t480) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets t330, BB folds, MP1 folds, Hero?

FortunaMaximus · #2 10-25-2006, 06:23 AM

You're not worried about 77-88. TT might be a concern, but not in a 4.4, this could be A6, it could be a strong hand, you've got the diamond draws handicapped.

43s has you crushed, evidently, regardless of suit, but it's early enough that it's worth going broke over.

Good move. Unlucky this time.

Neuge · #3 10-25-2006, 06:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're not worried about 77-88. TT might be a concern, but not in a 4.4, this could be A6, it could be a strong hand, you've got the diamond draws handicapped.

43s has you crushed, evidently, regardless of suit, but it's early enough that it's worth going broke over.

Good move. Unlucky this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Axd (J>x>7) doesn't have you worried? That was my biggest concern.

I was just wondering about the equity I have if his range includes that, and how likely it was at a 4/180. And what happens if I call, considering I'd still have a PSB left.

FortunaMaximus · #4 10-25-2006, 06:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're not worried about 77-88. TT might be a concern, but not in a 4.4, this could be A6, it could be a strong hand, you've got the diamond draws handicapped.

43s has you crushed, evidently, regardless of suit, but it's early enough that it's worth going broke over.

Good move. Unlucky this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Axd (J>x>7) doesn't have you worried? That was my biggest concern.

I was just wondering about the equity I have if his range includes that, and how likely it was at a 4/180. And what happens if I call, considering I'd still have a PSB left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, and, yes, FD with overs above/under your 9's are a concern, but that's actually a coinflip, and with what he's already invested in the pot, you just gotta win your slightly less than 50% chances. Because across the range, it isn't even that high.

Can you fold here? Yes, but it's generally not a great tournament to do so. The 4.4's have a high weak opponent to legit opponent ratio, and the payout scale is steep enough it justifies burnin' a buy-in for the times you get an early double.

Neuge · #5 10-25-2006, 06:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're not worried about 77-88. TT might be a concern, but not in a 4.4, this could be A6, it could be a strong hand, you've got the diamond draws handicapped.

43s has you crushed, evidently, regardless of suit, but it's early enough that it's worth going broke over.

Good move. Unlucky this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Axd (J>x>7) doesn't have you worried? That was my biggest concern.

I was just wondering about the equity I have if his range includes that, and how likely it was at a 4/180. And what happens if I call, considering I'd still have a PSB left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, and, yes, FD with overs above/under your 9's are a concern, but that's actually a coinflip, and with what he's already invested in the pot, you just gotta win your slightly less than 50% chances. Because across the range, it isn't even that high.

Can you fold here? Yes, but it's generally not a great tournament to do so. The 4.4's have a high weak opponent to legit opponent ratio, and the payout scale is steep enough it justifies burnin' a buy-in for the times you get an early double.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice analysis. I'm rarely folding here in a 4/180, but I wanted to get a clear picture of what I may be up against. I'm not quite sure about what 4/180 donks might be holding in this situation. Low Ax flush draws seemed plausible and might sway the decision.

FortunaMaximus · #6 10-25-2006, 06:54 AM

Thanks. When in doubt, go with the gut.

Neuge · #7 10-25-2006, 07:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. When in doubt, go with the gut.

[/ QUOTE ]I did. I pushed and he flipped up 88. 99 held. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Imrahil · #8 10-25-2006, 08:28 AM

If he had a very good hand he'd probably c/r you so I think you have to push on this board.

Nez477 · #9 10-25-2006, 01:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're not worried about 77-88. TT might be a concern, but not in a 4.4, this could be A6, it could be a strong hand, you've got the diamond draws handicapped.

43s has you crushed, evidently, regardless of suit, but it's early enough that it's worth going broke over.

Good move. Unlucky this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm being honest here, K-5 and K-6 will go to the felt here in a 4/180.

I think I'd push here. So many hands are behind your overpair.

SuperUberBob · #10 10-25-2006, 02:34 PM

I'd push. Only hands I'm concerned about are sets and TT.

I'd likely expect Ax above all else though.