Belmont Stakes

Bishop22 · #1 06-07-2006, 04:26 AM

Not much reason to get excited about the Belmont but there is money to be made. The Belmont is almost always won by one of the top two horses or a bomb with a freak Tomlinson figure (e.g Birdstone). The pedigree horse this year is Deputy Glitters but his Tomlinson is <400 so that angle may not even be significant. I am thinking this year is going to be chalky, any rain at all could all but seal up a Bluegrass Cat/BnJ exacta (440/404 slop Tomlinsons respectively).

Bodog has a prop I like: Winner will pay <$27.80 -350. Based on the current Pinny lines there should be a scalp there if you wanted to go that route. I'd prefer to handicap the bombs and play it like a freeroll as I think there are more than a few throwouts among the contenders.

ChipWrecked · #2 06-07-2006, 09:24 AM

Thanks Bish, will you keep us updated?

greg44 · #3 06-07-2006, 09:34 AM

are tomlinsons like beyer figures??

Bishop22 · #4 06-07-2006, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
are tomlinsons like beyer figures??

[/ QUOTE ]

Tomlinson's are pedigree figures in parentheses at the upper right of the past performance. They are listed for three seperate catagoires including distance and 'wet'. Usually if a bomb has a chance in this race they have a Tomlinson above 400 in the distance catagory but there is no horse in this race with such a figure.

Morning line maker really screwed up the prop arb by placing 3 horses at 15-1 and 1 at 12-1. You'd have to wait til race day to be sure to only bet the horses <13-1.

Sluss · #5 06-07-2006, 03:54 PM

I was under the impression that deep closers do well at the Belmont. A horse like Jazil or Steppenwolfer that would be coming from way off the pace would be able to run up to a win or place instead of just hitting or just missing the board like they usually do. Without any top of the line horses in this field I wonder how the chalk will hold up to past years.

I was a big Jazil fan (jinx) until I heard his trainer say today that the owner wants him closer to the pace.

Has anyone seen Sunriver run this year? Is he really as good as the hype? The only Belmont races I bet are this weekend.

NajdorfDefense · #6 06-07-2006, 04:02 PM

I'm taking the odds on BobNJohn, at these odds I'm betting him across the board, Sunriver is a solid second choice, I'll bet him Place at 4-1 or better odds, I'll put Steppenwolfer to Show again like I did in the Derby. Ditto for Jazil.

Then I'll put a small trifecta box on Sun/Cat/Steppen.
Superfecta - Sun/Cat + Steppen/Jazil at the back and ditto Sun/Bob + Steppen/Jazil.

Let's hope none of them break a leg this race.

Naj

roundmann · #7 06-07-2006, 04:10 PM

Today is Wednesday. How in the world are you thinking about a race on Saturday. It's just another betting race.
Remember, all horses have the same names in every race and you can put it all in perspective....1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 etc.
Worry about todays races.

Bishop22 · #8 06-07-2006, 04:27 PM

You don't need to be a deep closer to win the Belmont. The years the clunkers have one (most of whom had big Tomlinson numbers) it seemed to be more due to the lack of staying power by those closer to the pace. This year we have a few horses capable of getting the 12 furlongs done at a decent clip. Bluegrass Cat and BnJ are real solid but I think Steppenwolfer has a shot and will almost certainly hit the board. Sunriver is the unknown, if it wasn't for Pletcher being the trainer I would have thrown him out. Stretching 3 furlongs with a trash Tomlinson number against a decent field is no small feat but I've seen the miracles the medicine men have performed in the past. I would strongly disagree with anyone that thinks there is value at 4-1 but I am not quite ready to take a position against him at this point.

playersare · #9 06-07-2006, 05:44 PM

I found Sunriver last night at +600 and took that. still scalpable w/pin at +500 too. if BnJ goes higher than 7-1 I might consider that too.

TripleH68 · #10 06-07-2006, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was a big Jazil fan (jinx) until I heard his trainer say today that the owner wants him closer to the pace.

Has anyone seen Sunriver run this year? Is he really as good as the hype? The only Belmont races I bet are this weekend.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems unlikely Jazil will bounce back well from the Kentucky Derby. Give me a reason why he hits the ticket or I will throw him out.

As for Sunriver he is steadily improving for Pletcher. Ran a very respectable race in the Florida Derby and came back to win the Peter Pan with a triple digit Beyer. Appears to have a good running style for the Belmont. Inside post and RB. What's not to like?