Did He Touch Home?

[Pudge714]

Oski,
Think about how often there is a play at the plate there.
In this situation a near perfect spot came up where Holliday's speed mattered. In a tie game you are taking out your best hitter and losing a pinch hitter for later in the game.

Mo,
The example you gave could be worse because when the tying run scores you are going into extras without your most valuable player.

[Oski]

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Oski,
Think about how often there is a play at the plate there.
In this situation a near perfect spot came up where Holliday's speed mattered. In a tie game you are taking out your best hitter and losing a pinch hitter for later in the game.

Mo,
The example you gave could be worse because when the tying run scores you are going into extras without your most valuable player.

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In any event, if Rocks don't score, Holliday is not coming up for another two innings. Also, the faster the PR is, the less chance the play at the plate is close.

[ShaneP]

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1st and 3rd no outs is a completely different situation than the bases loaded no outs when you absolutely cannot let one run score.

You can't go for the DP because the runner on third comes home. It's better to load up the bases to AT LEAST get the force at home if not the X-2-3 double play.

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if I remember ev right it was .894 for bl and .9 for 1 and 3rd, but the difference between carroll and helton probably makes that enough to not walk him.

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Expected number of runs isn't the right metric. The right one is the probability that at least one run scores as opposed to none. I don't know off the top of my head, but I would guess it's easier to get out of the inning with the bases loaded (if that's what you're explicitly trying to do--as opposed to the middle of the game) than with first and third.

Shane

[ArcticKnight]

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No. But the double was a homerun, right? It all evens out.

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One bad call justifies another?

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Never said they justify each other. If (and I guess it is if) the said double was a homer, then it is does not make sence to look at this play at home in isolation of another run-scoring play that clearly went against them.

[vhawk01]

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Too many bad things can happen.

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You could walk home the winning run. What else?

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It's not just the possibility of the walk. It's the batter knowing you can't walk him, which gives him a significant advantage, especially if he gets ahead in the count.

And as mentioned, HBP is a concern. There are also things like catcher's interference, dropping the 3rd strike, and probably other oddball situations which are rare, but you never know.

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Did you just make this first part up?

How do these disadvantages compare to having a force at every base? Because, just intuitively, I'd say having a force at every base>>>>>all the rest of this crap, the only meaningful thing being you could walk a guy.

[vhawk01]

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Post this in BBV plz

[vhawk01]

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Yeah that's not obvious at all. And it's not obvious how much any additional speed increases your chance to win. The speed would need to increase the probability of scoring enough to offset the penalty if they don't get the run anyway and now you have an inferior bat in the lineup.

If the pinch runner is a pretty good fielder, it's probably not that big of a deal one way or the other.

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I can't believe that is a serious comment.

A faster runner increases the amount and types of plays you can gamble on at the plate; they can run on shallower flys, infield grounders, maybe a foul ball catch, passed ball and wild pitch. It also brings the squeeze in to play.

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Right, it goes from 1% to 2%? You see the problem with this? Plays at the plate are pretty rare. Failing to score with runners on the corners and no outs is MUCH less rare. So there would need to be a pretty huge edge in speed.

[ArcticKnight]

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pudge,

interesting thoughts about the walk. I hadn't thought of that.

I still think going for home is the right move on just about every OF save for a few cannons. 0 outs and just a man on 3rd maybe not, but Helton advancing to second has to swing it well into +EV territory, doesn't it?

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I agree with Pudge on this one, I don't think walking the bases loaded would give you a significant advantage.

Hoffman's control didn't look good, and was he pitching without a safety net (or was there a left-hander up in the pen?) Brad Hawpe was on deck and would have unloaded on Hoffman.

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I agree with Pudge. Another point in favour of not walking the bases loaded is that Holliday is not left to choose a "run-down" option with the bases juiced. With runners on 1st and 3rd, on a ground ball Holliday can force a rundown (if need be). Tis would allow a heads-up runner on 1st to end up on 3rd with 1 out, thus keeping the sac fly in play. This option is gone with the bases juiced. It's a small point, but the ultimate decision needs to made on the cummulative impact of small points.

That said, the runner on 1st didn't seem too heads-up....as he was still on 1st after the play??

[kidcolin]

yeah but you get to squeeezzeee

[kidcolin]

wtf? this post makes no sense. One: Holliday getting in a rundown on purpose would be retarded. Two: you argue it such that it sounds like Holliday is on the Padres.