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#1
02-28-2007, 03:43 PM
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3/6 WPX AA river decision
Villain in this hand seems kinda weird, ocilating between passive and laggy. He seems to play reasonably preflop in non-steal spots (too passive OTB especially), but plays poorly after the flop.
Hands I have on him from my notes: He limps OTB with Q4of hearts and call down the BB with bottom pair on a twotone flop (flush didn't get there). Called A9 in BB and called down OOP with ace high on ragged board. (SH) 3bet out of BB with KT and bet flop turn and river with air. Anyway, the game had been nine handed, but now its become 5 handed. Preflop <font color="red">Villain opens UTG</font> , <font color="red">Hero 3bets in the CO </font> with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], player with about 14$ left calls 3 cold OTB,, Villain calls. Flop (10.3 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villain checks, <font color="red"> hero bets </font>, <font color="red"> Button raises all-in </font>, villain calls, <font color="red"> hero raises </font>, villain calls. Turn (about 8.3 BB): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Villian checks, <font color="red"> Hero Bets </font> , <font color="red"> Villian raises </font>, Hero calls. River (12.3 BB): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Villian checks, Hero Checks [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] 
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#5
02-28-2007, 06:24 PM
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Re: 3/6 WPX AA river decision
I like the river check-through. If we bet, what could he call with that you beat? Nearly everything got there.
Until I read James' post, I woulda played the turn the same; I hate getting check-raised on the turn. Upon further review, however, a 3-bet might be goot because he could hold A-K or a flush draw, or just be fooling around with something worse a percentage of the time (according to the read, he's pretty unpredictable). Question: Could we fold to a cap?
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#6
02-28-2007, 06:26 PM
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Re: 3/6 WPX AA river decision
I don't think the turn is a 3bet. We've shown a lot of aggression in this hand and villain jacks us on the turn anyway? I'd 3bet this only with a specific read.
On the river a check is fine. His hand looks like a pissed off jack that's not folding and basically nothing else can call.
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#7
02-28-2007, 10:18 PM
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Re: 3/6 WPX AA river decision
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the turn is a 3bet. We've shown a lot of aggression in this hand and villain jacks us on the turn anyway? I'd 3bet this only with a specific read. [/ QUOTE ] well, i think we have a pretty decent read that tells us this guy does some goofy [censored](no pun intended [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). we have the best hand here a fairly proportionate amount of the time and i want to get extra value from it in a sidepot. this guy explicitly plays poorly postflop. i take that to mean getting out of line in hopeless spots like this one. you don't feel that we see worse hands like KQ, KT here often enough to 3bet? if it is with a hand like QT or even some other semibluff hand i would prefer to 3bet the turn when he must call. based on J's description he also lends me to believe to be the type to call down with top pair regardless of the action, and maybe even QQ if he wants to "keep you honest". sure, there a few combos of KJ and Jx out, but that is such a drawy board that hits alot of hands on the come, or pair+draws that 3betting that turn for me is close to automatic given villain's description. fwiw, i would check behind on THAT river after 3betting the turn. anyone tell me this, what % of frequency would you allocate to: a)the times we have the best hand and villain is drawing to 2 or fewer outs b)the times villain is on semibluff(4-15ish outs) c)the times villain is on a pure bluff(0 outs) d)the times villain has us drawing to two or fewer outs i think "a", "b"(properly weighted), and "c" will outweigh "d" often enough in terms of frequency to merit the turn reraise. another thing to consider that would be less of a concern for me might be if villain is the type to get really retarded with a hand like TT or 88 or something we have crushed that he can get away from with a turn 3bet, but then again we avoid the 5% of the time they two out us and since the pot's big i don't hate it.
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#8
02-28-2007, 11:01 PM
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Re: 3/6 WPX AA river decision
[ QUOTE ]
anyone tell me this, what % of frequency would you allocate to: a)the times we have the best hand and villain is drawing to 2 or fewer outs b)the times villain is on semibluff(4-15ish outs) c)the times villain is on a pure bluff(0 outs) d)the times villain has us drawing to two or fewer outs i think "a", "b"(properly weighted), and "c" will outweigh "d" often enough in terms of frequency to merit the turn reraise. [/ QUOTE ] i did NOT mean to post this. i mixed up/had wrong my a,b,c and d when i stated this. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] what i was trying to say basically is the % of times we are ahead and villain is semibluffing or raising a pair+draw hand with which he will have to call the 3bet on the turn is more than often enough to 3bet given the pot size.
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