Hopeless bluff?

Borys313 · #1 07-21-2007, 02:31 PM

PokerStars 75/150 Omaha/8 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (8.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.33 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.33 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 7.33 BB

Usually when I somehow got to the river with a hand that has absolutly no showdown value i will bet. Here in this spot the way the action went I hoped he might have some low wrap, because he never bet out. You think he ever folds a pair of 5 if this is all he has? Or am I just throwing money away?

PS. I can easily find lots of similar hands, this is just an example.

SparkMan · #2 07-21-2007, 02:59 PM

The problem is your postflop action could represent a busted low draw to your opponent. I would call you down here with any pair given the flop and turn action. The only hands that fold are ones you have beat.

Also raising adkdjdqh should be seen as a blind steal or variation play only. I would not cap the betting preflop. There are lots of these hopeless type flops for your hand.

Shabamabam · #3 07-21-2007, 03:48 PM

Not really to do with this hand. Well... it might.

I found you to play super overly aggressive and it allowed me to make very light calldowns on you.

I'm pretty sure that anything calls you here because if you had a set or two pair, you probably would keep firing given your image. Given the way it was played, it just doesn't really make sense.

Buzz · #4 07-21-2007, 05:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You think he ever folds a pair of 5 if this is all he has?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Borys – I don’t know if he throws a pair of fives away or not. Assuming he knows how to play poker reasonably well, I think probably he’s playing you, just as perhaps you are playing him.

When you raise before the flop, BB defends aggressively by re-raising. When you cap it, you should fully expect him to call. Has anyone who has made it three bets before the flop ever folded when you capped? (I’d guess not.)

Then the flop has three clubs. BB checks. Does BB’s check here mean he doesn’t have clubs? (Not if he expects you to bet). Assume he’s playing you. Against another opponent he might bet clubs (or not).

You bet and when BB calls, he’s playing you. By calling, he’s more or less saying he doesn’t believe you. BB doesn’t have to raise to say he doesn’t believe you; all BB has to do is call. Does BB have clubs or not? Very hard to know at this point. From your perspective, four random cards are expected to have clubs only about one time in five (0.2093). Since BB re-raised your pre-flop raise, BB probably has better than four random cards, but maybe not much better.

Then the turn looks as though it is no help to anybody and BB checks. Does BB’s check after the turn mean he doesn’t have clubs? Again, not if he expects you to bet. Continue to assume he’s playing Borys. Against another opponent he might bet clubs (or not).

This time, you check behind BB. Does he expect you would check behind him if you actually had the flush your flop bet represented? My guess is he thinks you’re less likely to actually have the flush when you check the turn.

Then the river pairs the board and low is not possible. Again BB checks. Does BB’s check on the river mean he doesn’t have clubs? (Again, not if he expects you to bet). He’s still playing you.

From what you have written, he should expect you to bet again, regardless of whether you have anything or not.

At this point, from your perspective, since now you can see nine cards instead of only the seven you could see immediately after the flop, the probability four random cards will have two or more clubs is 0.2263 (still about one out of five). Since once again BB plays passively, it looks even more as though he does not actually have the club flush. (I’d guess he does not have the club flush).

But since you checked the turn, it also looks more as though you do not have the club flush either.

After you check the turn, BB must be thinking his earlier doubt that you had the club flush has been validated. BB must be wondering what you do have instead of the club flush.

[ QUOTE ]
You think he ever folds a pair of 5 if this is all he has?

[/ QUOTE ]I’d call you on the river just to see what cards you actually held. But some players might fold to your river bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Or am I just throwing money away?

[/ QUOTE ] I think you should assume your opponent is trying to put you on cards, and is playing you (unless you have good reason to have decided otherwise for this particular opponent).

In other words, I think a strong opponent is thinking about how you are playing, and is reacting accordingly. And in that case, you're throwing away your money.

However, if your opponent is just (foolishly) playing his own cards without regard for how you are playing, and if your opponent has only a lowly pair or less for high and was somehow purely drawing for the low, maybe you’re not just throwing away your money.

Buzz

jcx · #5 07-22-2007, 09:06 AM

I think you have to be the turn here. By not betting you have no idea where you stand. He probably would have checkraised the turn if he had clubs (or possibly just AA), allowing you to fold. At any rate you would have lost the same amount as you did in the hand as played (but might have had a better chance to win). If he simply called, he's probably just drawing low and you very likely could have stolen the pot on the river. Since it was capped PF he's likely to fear aces up on the river if he doesn't have them. As played, he thinks your full of it and could very likely call the river with only a pair of 5's. If you are not going to bet the turn give it up on the river unless you improve. Otherwise I do think it's throwing $ away.

Borys313 · #6 07-22-2007, 10:14 AM

Thanx for all the replies. I dont like this hand but this is how it happened.

Its folded to me in a semi short handed game. I look down and see AKQJ with suits a very nice hand (the only downside is that it plays poorly 1 on 1) so i make a standard raise and get repoped. So now I have to make a decision.

When I just call he will assume I was just on a steal and pound me. But if I make it 4 bets its very likely that he will give me credit for aces or other very strong hand so cap it.

Flop is very standard. On turn he doesnt have clubs for sure but has enough to see the river thats why I check behind. 3-barreling is just to costly cause a low comes on 5th half of the time and he instacalls.

On river the good news is he missed the low, the bad I have air. I bet out. There is at least one reasonable hand that i would play this way namely AAxx all red with no low. I hope to make him fold a hand like A235 which beats me but might have a hard time on river.

I dont defend my play, just give my logic.

Buzz · #7 07-23-2007, 01:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When I just call he will assume I was just on a steal and pound me.

[/ QUOTE ]Good. You recognize that he is playing you, Borys, as an individual. You realize that he will put you on a steal as soon as you check behind him, and then he’s going to pound.

However, the flop will come before he has a chance to pound. You missed on your steal attempt. Too bad, but that’s done now. You shouldn’t want to compound your dilemma.

You may find a flop fit with this hand. Because of that possibility, he won’t necessarily bet into you. And if he does bet into you regardless of the flop, then when you have a flop fit you pound him. Otherwise, you decide what to do on a case by case basis, depending on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
But if I make it 4 bets its very likely that he will give me credit for aces or other very strong hand so cap it.

[/ QUOTE ]Not exactly. I don’t think he gives you credit for anything, one way or the other at this point, whether you make it four bets or not. Instead I think he assigns some relative probability (but without necessarily quantifying it).

In other words, maybe he would (without quantifying) think there was a little bit lower chance you were on a steal attempt if you made it four bets. But even if you make it four bets, I think he still does not rule out the possibility of a steal attempt. On a subsequent betting round, the minute he checks and you check behind him, he’ll want to pound. It doesn’t matter if you make it four bets on the first betting round or not.

You have to keep up the pressure to keep credibility that you’re not stealing. You can’t back off. It’s possible he will yield to the pressure on the second betting round. But probably he won’t. And then if he doesn’t, you have to pound again on the third betting round. So you get stuck in the rut of bluff after bluff after bluff.

(You didn't do that. You were stuck in the rut, but then you didn't bluff again on the third betting round. However, you don't get out of the rut that easily. When you stop betting, you more or less destroy your credibility.)

On the other hand, if you don't make it four bets on the first betting round (or if you do), you always have a chance to find a fit with the flop. Your opponent must know that, and thus he needs to also find a fit with the flop.

When BB re-raises, your steal attempt has failed. Too bad, but now it’s time to regroup. You still may find a flop fit, and you still will get to act last every betting round.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is very standard.

[/ QUOTE ]It’s only standard if having all cards of the same suit is standard. Plain and simple, you missed a fit with the flop. And if you play this way very often, because your opponent should expect to bet anyhow, when your opponent doesn't fold, you can’t tell if your opponent has a flop fit or not.

Since he calls your bet, it looks more like he has a flop fit than not, but if you play this way very often, he could strongly suspect you are simply blowing air (betting with nothing in an attempt to bully him out of the pot).

[ QUOTE ]
On turn he doesnt have clubs for sure

[/ QUOTE ]It's not for sure, but probably not. [ QUOTE ]
but has enough to see the river

[/ QUOTE ]Probably. [ QUOTE ]
thats why I check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]I see. But now you have given up the ruse. Now he probably thinks you probably don’t have clubs either. And he probably thinks you probably don’t have two pairs or trips either.

However, he probably thinks you might possibly have aces. O.K. I see.

[ QUOTE ]
On river the good news is he missed the low, the bad I have air. I bet out. There is at least one reasonable hand that i would play this way namely AAxx all red with no low. I hope to make him fold a hand like A235 which beats me but might have a hard time on river.

[/ QUOTE ]I follow your logic. Makes sense.

Your ploy only has to work one time out of five to be a successful strategy.

However, I don’t think it will work that often. I think the probability the following three conditions all exist<ul type="square">(1) he assigns you AAXX,
(2) he happens to hold no more than one pair,
(3) and then he folds to your river bet even though you have checked the turn[/list]is more remote than one out of five.

Buzz