Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn

[Rduke55]

[ QUOTE ]
CO's bet (with the big stack) smells like "no one is interested in this pot, let me see if I can pick it off with a bet". I'm more concerned with MJ, but I like the raise to 5000.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I don't think he's put us all in with any 2 here. Our check on the flop (I still like a bet there) followed by a raise on the turn looks string to me if I were in his shoes.

[Stipe_fan]

This is where is gets really tricky. Thusfar, I would have played it the same way. (I actually would have raised T500 pf)

I don't know how you can change the original range of hands. He could have anything from a set to a straight to QQ.

With this type of bet, I would definitely raise and define my hand and see if he actually has a hand. I am a tad nervous of MJ coming into the pot behind me, but if you played scared all the time, you may as well play hopscotch.

I would put in a raise. I would have to make the raise "appear" like I have no FE. I would rep a set of a made straight and make him think that I feared a flush. Again, the tricky part is making the bet the right amount to make him laydown a weak hand, thinking that I have no FE. But, I know that if I am played with, I would have to fold and lose some but not all my stack.

Thus, I would make it 3500 to go. This would give him the wrong odds to call if he was fishing for a flush or a straight. If I bet anymore, I may as well go AI. So, we need an amount that makes him think I am serious but does not pot commit us.

Raise him 3500, fold if he reraises. If he comes out firing on the river, you have to fold.


Stipe

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CO's bet (with the big stack) smells like "no one is interested in this pot, let me see if I can pick it off with a bet". I'm more concerned with MJ, but I like the raise to 5000.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I don't think he's put us all in with any 2 here. Our check on the flop (I still like a bet there) followed by a raise on the turn looks string to me if I were in his shoes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you caught his hand in the cookie jar he's not thinking your raise looks strange, he's just looking to fold.

[jubeirm]

I don't think we have enough FE for it to work. Excluding re-raise and simplifing the river action I see this scenario:
<ul type="square">[*]Raise 5k: (1-y)% of time villains fold =&gt; net 3500[*]Raise 5k: y% of time CO calls and MJ folds...
(3/11) river a win. chk, bet, fold =&gt; net 8500
(8/11) river a loss. bet, fold =&gt; net -5000[/list]
We break even when
(1-y)(3500) + y[ (3/11)(8500) + (8/11)(-5000) ] = 0
y = 72.6%

So in this simple example we need a fold 27.3% of the time to break even. I don't think we are getting it nor can we make up the difference in the river play.

--Jubei

[m1illion]

I fold and it's not even close.
The CO is playing tight so we are up against a made hand. No raise is driving him out.
I only have 600 invested in this hand, made a mistake on the flop,not getting odds for my draws, and all of my outs are not clean.
Throwing half my stack a this seems suicidal. Now you are trying to bluff two people, one of which likely has a made hand and the other you have no more information on than you did after he called your initial raise and is yet to act.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold and it's not even close.
The CO is playing tight so we are up against a made hand. No raise is driving him out.
I only have 600 invested in this hand, made a mistake on the flop,not getting odds for my draws, and all of my outs are not clean.
Throwing half my stack a this seems suicidal. Now you are trying to bluff two people, one of which likely has a made hand and the other you have no more information on than you did after he called your initial raise and is yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, i can't imagine worse logic or more of a lack of coherent thought process. take this how you will, but thinking like this makes you the epitome of dead money in a large event.

how can you sleep at night with all those monsters under your bed? Why do you think that you have no knowledge of MJ's hand now that he's checked twice on a T94Q board with a flush draw out?

[CardSharpCook]

I am completely baffled by those advocating a fold. You are getting 2.3:1 on your money with 15 outs (possibly more, possibly less). So, even without betting on the river this is a call. Add the probability that there will be river action, and it is obviously a situation you want to be involved in. Additionally, why on earth did we check the flop if we are going to fold on a dream card turn???

To those that advocate a raise... This would be a pretty lame bluff that gets snapped a hell off a lot more than a flop bluff. There is so much that he can call/push if we bluff here TT,99,44,KJ,J8,QT,T9,Q9,QJ are all possible holdings that can call a bluff. Unlike the flop, this board is NOT a good board to bluff into. Raising here does one thing: it commits half our stack on a 35% shot if he flat calls, and 100% of our stack on a 35% draw if he pushes. I like royal draws as much as the next guy, but I'm not about to cripple myself by betting the farm on the Royals to beat the Red Sox.

This is a flat call. I agree with those who have said that MJ is done with hand. I certainly hope that he doesn't wake up with a monster, but I can still reduce my hand to 11 outs and redo the math based on KJ for MJ and whatever he decides to raise. Additionally, it would be madness to bet on the river if we miss.

CSC

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold and it's not even close.
The CO is playing tight so we are up against a made hand. No raise is driving him out.
I only have 600 invested in this hand, made a mistake on the flop,not getting odds for my draws, and all of my outs are not clean.
Throwing half my stack a this seems suicidal. Now you are trying to bluff two people, one of which likely has a made hand and the other you have no more information on than you did after he called your initial raise and is yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]horrible, and like Exit said, it really doesnt matter what you have invested this hand up to this point.

i call and see what he does/comes on the river

[Roman]

I agree that a fold is laughable, I make a large raise to 5500 or so.

[Gar Pike]

My .02

I put CO on 2 connected broadway or smallish pp. I think he has a pair o' Qs, Ts or smaller, and reaally wants us to fold, the flop action having smelled of weakness. He might have 2 pr on the flop, though, as QT is not totally out of the question.

I'd raise to 3750, which I think would represent trips.

that puts about 7250 in the pot, with 15 outs I call an allin re-raise.

I think the raise gets me HU with the CO or buys the pot

If CO calls raise: On the river, if I hit, I min-raise any bet, to try to get him to push. If checked to, I bet 2500, hoping he has a srt8 and thinks I'm trying to buy. If I miss, though, I have to give up, I still have 7000-ish chips.

Might not even be 0.02 worth, I'm not all that good this.

Regards

Gar