3/6 Play Along On A Resteal Attempt

Harv72b · #1 09-07-2006, 05:24 PM

This is very obviously not a standard play for me. The table was short-handed and loaded with piss poor players (all on my left, d'oh!), which made MP2's raise a lot less frightening than it normally would have been. My own table image was solid & TAG, and even the bad players were starting to notice that, so I felt I had a decent chance of getting heads up & stealing this pot postflop from a better hand.

MP2 is a known, solid TAG over a 500+ hand sample. 20/12/2.3, and clearly a winning player. I felt/feel that he is very capable of laying down a raising hand like AJ or KQ UI postflop, even a stronger hand if the board warrants it...to say nothing of hands he might be raising here, like A7s etc. BB is unknown. If it makes a difference, Button is 33/4/1 over 400, and SB is 15/9/3 over ~350. There's another 35/5 type sitting out in the seat on my left.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero...?

Feel free to berate the preflop play if you must. I think that postflop is much more interesting, though, and how often do we see a post about playing 42s in a big pot? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Hobbs. · #2 09-07-2006, 05:29 PM

<insert something about preflop>

You likely get more value by calling the flop and getting bb to come along giving yourself better odds to draw. By raising the flop you are basically hoping that you can get AK to fold the turn UIed, but this involves betting the turn UIed and this just isn't going to happen enough to make raising more profitable than calling.

Basically, turn and/or river well.

JJH3984 · #3 09-07-2006, 05:47 PM

I don't see very much value in raising and shutting out BB. I also think its very likely that MP2 will threebet if you raise. I'd just call the flop.

alul · #4 09-07-2006, 05:54 PM

You got lucky and flopped what you were supposed to flop: flush and backdoor straight draws. There is no need now to drive opponents out by raising, you don't need to protect your hand. Just make sure the right cards come on the turn and the river and put your opponents on tilt.

James. · #5 09-07-2006, 06:30 PM

i guess i would call. we sure are missing out on cleaning up our "4" outs(i think the twos are pretty clean). [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

KurtSF · #6 09-07-2006, 07:21 PM

Why abandon the intention to steal now that you have a nice draw? Raise it up!

What can he cap with? You have a good chance of pushing him off JJ (6), TT (6), and AK (11, not AdKd). AA (6), KK (6), QQ (3), AQs (3), and AdKd (1) are coming along. Those are the legitimate capping hands. He could also have AJ, AQo, AT, A9, KQ, QJ, JT, T9, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55 if you caught him out on a limb on a steal here. AQo, 99, 55, KQ, QJ, A9, T9, JT, and anything suited in diamonds will probably come along here. He's a rather tight player so let's figure 80% chance he's for real and 20% in the second group.

So he looks like a reraise 66% and call 33% on legit, and reraise 15%, call 35%, fold 50% on a move. I think you have 10% fold equity on this street alone. Plus you have about 25% equity (one in three to hit your flush, discounted for bigger flush possibilities and redraws, bouyed by a barely mentionable backdoor straight draw).

Is that enough to raise? I don't know. But based on the read I think you may have an additional 30% fold equity on the next 2 streets if you maintain the aggression.

I say cap the flop, call a 3-bet on the turn if you miss there, and then c/f if you miss the river and b/c if you hit.

$0.02 - I'm ready to be ripped apart...

KurtSF · #7 09-07-2006, 07:23 PM

Oh, and needless to say the analysis all changes if the BB follows you guys to the turn with all the betting you're doing.

Hobbs. · #8 09-07-2006, 07:25 PM

kurtSF, there are like zero hands that are bet/folding this flop and thus require us to put in another bet on the turn. Because of this raising is much less appealing.

ncboiler · #9 09-07-2006, 07:27 PM

This seems to be an easy call. You are easily behind and MP2 knows he is ahead...or thinks he is ahead until you prove to him you have QQ. Call...get an overcall and see what the turn brings.

PF I fold. Do you want to go HU against a solid player w/ 2/4s?

JJH3984 · #10 09-07-2006, 07:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why abandon the intention to steal now that you have a nice draw? Raise it up!

What can he cap with? You have a good chance of pushing him off JJ (6), TT (6), and AK (11, not AdKd). AA (6), KK (6), QQ (3), AQs (3), and AdKd (1) are coming along. Those are the legitimate capping hands. He could also have AJ, AQo, AT, A9, KQ, QJ, JT, T9, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55 if you caught him out on a limb on a steal here. AQo, 99, 55, KQ, QJ, A9, T9, JT, and anything suited in diamonds will probably come along here. He's a rather tight player so let's figure 80% chance he's for real and 20% in the second group.

So he looks like a reraise 66% and call 33% on legit, and reraise 15%, call 35%, fold 50% on a move. I think you have 10% fold equity on this street alone. Plus you have about 25% equity (one in three to hit your flush, discounted for bigger flush possibilities and redraws, bouyed by a barely mentionable backdoor straight draw).

Is that enough to raise? I don't know. But based on the read I think you may have an additional 30% fold equity on the next 2 streets if you maintain the aggression.

I say cap the flop, call a 3-bet on the turn if you miss there, and then c/f if you miss the river and b/c if you hit.

$0.02 - I'm ready to be ripped apart...

[/ QUOTE ]

If opponent threebets the flop, you have practicly 0 fold equity. As it is, you have no where near the fold equity you think you do. Capping the flop is spew and Raising a turn bet after that is certainly spew.

Edit: you have almost no fold equity on the flop IMO.