Short run edge?

[Mickey Mouse]

Hello,

I have a couple of questions for you guys if that’s ok.

1. Which poker variant (NLHE, Limit HE, Stud…) involves more skill than luck – where skill (information available, EV, bet sizing, odds…) can be a big advantage against less skillful opponents/short run luck??

2. Ed Miller (poker writer) wrote [he was talking about small stakes-tight game vs. big stakes-all four betting rounds game]:
"... Take Ned, a player with only one month's experience. Ned can walk into the Bellagio poker room, sit in a $10-$20 blind no limit game with players who have won hundreds of thousands of dollars on tv, buy-in for $600 (the minimum), and expect to be a winner... In limit hold'em, the analog could never happen. If Ned were to sit in the $80-$160 limit game at the Bellagio and buy-in for the minimum, he should expect to be broke in no time... his cagy opponents would fleece him on the turn and river betting rounds" - the idea in Ed Miller's book was that with small stakes no limit game, you have only enough money for the preflop and the flop betting, while with the big stacks you could bet the turn and the river (all four betting rounds are for the pros, cause they can fully use their skill oppose to all in on the flop play).

Having read all of that, it seems to me that the combination of skill and math (EV, implied odds, bet sizing, value betting...) gives more edge to the skillful player in a Limit game in the <u>short run</u>??? Key word is the short run.

I'm looking for the edge in the short run cause i'm not looking to be a pro player, rather just a part time home game winner, if that has any sense. I'm trying to find the edge in a 3-6 hour home game and was wondering if the Limit game is the game which gives me that edge?

Of course, if the short run concept in poker has any meaningful basis in reality?


Thank you all very much!!

[AKQJ10]

Well, what Ed wrote was correct, but it was in the context of a short-buyin NLHE strategy. In general I'd say:

Deep stack NLHE &gt; Limit HE &gt; Short stack NLHE

as far as rewarding experience and expertise. But it's not really to say that short stack NLHE has more luck than LHE, although it has quite a bit. Rather, it's that most players have no clue how to play against a SS, so a very mechanic approach can beat it.

When you talk about non-HE variants, I believe five-card draw is considered to be less about luck, which is why no one spreads it any more. 7-stud has more variance than HE but has great opportunities for skill. Limit Omaha 8/b can be a bit of a crapshoot and beatable in much the same way as SSNLHE.

[Mickey Mouse]

Thank you for the answer.

I suppose SS = short stack.

So, it's not some form/variant of poker that has more skill/less luck, but rather stacks size is the defining factor, if I understand you correctly.

I've always thought that implied odds and big bluffs or LUCK can save a poor NL player a lot longer (even make him a winner!) than a poor Limit player!??
We've seen many times (on TV and live) that a top class player loses against some anonymus in NLHE; and since the pots are generaly big in NL, anyone can be a winner (deep stack or short stack) - hence the luck part.

I don't think that a poor player can be a consistent winner in Limit where he can't take big pots that can hurt a good player's stack? Right? His poor play should be his downfall sooner or later in Limit (depending on the luck and the thinnes of edges in the first place).

Or I'm wrong big time? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Thanks!

[pardon my english]

[Gonso]

A poor player won't be a consistent long-term winner in any game, unless facing even poorer players. All of the poker games have advantages and drawbacks for novice players, but obviously favor the more skilled players.

Take NLHE for example. It can give a relatively new player the ability to suckout on huge pots, as you mentioned. But, on the flip side, a novice player is in much more danger of falling into a trap for all of his chips, sometimes early in the game.

I like limit Omaha 8 for what you're asking. Played as a limit game, and with all of the split pots, there's a lot more action for recreational players.

You could also get a mixed game going, and play a little of everything. You can learn all of the popular games in no time.