HUSNG $50 - Huge overbet on river against 3rd Nuts

[NSM]

Villain is unknown to me, but -20%ROI on Sharkscope. This is 3rd hand of the match. Only thing that beats me is a completed straight, but what else could his river overbet mean? What else could his range include that makes him like the river so much on a board like this?

I feel like this is almost never a bluff with the specific sizing of that bet - I think he wants to get called, but he may may not put me on as strong a hand as I have as I did not slow play it.

How often is this some weird rag 2 pair, desperation backdoor set he made, or a "slow played" AK or AA?

Does the likelihood of it being straight make this almost always a call (I can't imagine folding here), or should we push for the times we do crush what he thought was a lucky river? Calling seems like conceding that we are usually beat, so maybe this is a fold? I really don't want to get stuck on the strength of my hand in spots like this, don't want to look for boogeymen either. Need help. Thanks.

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Seat 1: VILLAIN ($1,530) -
Seat 2: HERO ($1,470) - -


<font color="#000000">PRE-FLOP:</font>

HERO <font color="#272BA6">posts small blind $10</font>
VILLAIN <font color="#272BA6">posts BIG blind $20</font>
Dealt To: HERO


<font color="#272BA6">RAISE HERO</font>($60)
<font color="#B93238">CALL VILLAIN</font>($40)


<font color="#000000">FLOP:</font>

Pot: $120


<font color="#000000">CHECK VILLAIN</font>
<font color="#272BA6">BET HERO</font>($60)
<font color="#B93238">CALL VILLAIN</font>($60)


<font color="#000000">TURN:</font>

Pot: $240


<font color="#000000">CHECK VILLAIN</font>
<font color="#272BA6">BET HERO</font>($100)
<font color="#B93238">CALL VILLAIN</font>($100)


<font color="#000000">RIVER:</font>

Pot: $440


<font color="#272BA6">BET VILLAIN</font>($600)

[HokieGreg]

I would get in the habit of c-betting a little more than half pot this early in the match (t80).

I would bet more on the turn. Your bet is less than half the pot and you are playing someone who is likely a pretty big calling station if his roi is that bad.

I shove river all day.

[NSM]

Thanks Hokie. Any thoughts on his range or are you saying it doesn't matter?

[HokieGreg]

2 pair/set/straight

then you have to factor a certain % of ridiculous hands that a -20% roi fish would overvalue in this spot

it doesnt really matter though imo

[TNixon]

Just for giggles, I decided to start throwing some stuff into pokerstove just to see how it came out, and the results surprised me just a little.

If you include every set and K8 2 pair (hands which you have crushed), you still have to throw out half of the possible straights just to be even money.

Of course, a -20% roi fish could *very* easily be in here with 53 or 52, even calling a raise OOP, and if you include every straight/set/2 pair, then you're 65%.

And like HokieGreg said, you could even add a lot of random [censored] like middle pockets, weak kings, and even some 8s, which makes it an easy push.

I'm guessing you lost to A4 though? If I were trying to weight hands here, I'd want to give extra weight specifically to A4, 85, and the flopped sets.

[NSM]

That range is very helpful, thanks!

I actually didn't put him on an 85 type combo b/c I would have expected more aggression early if he hit top pair.

Villain had the unbeatable 64. This is one of those spots where I expected him to show down a hand that beat me (like you, I suspected a wheel, it made more sense that he was on a "ace draw" with his gutshot than the miracle 64 gutter) but still felt a push was in order. I feel like there's plenty of spots that he thinks he hit lightning in the bottle on that river w/ something way behind top set. I'm pleasantly surprised at how many times bad ROI villains want to get it on w/ a rivered 2 pair (or top pair) when it's a 4 card straight or their 2 pair was counterfeited a long time ago.

That being said, I was pretty sure I was beat

[vodoo]

people play this poor on the 50$s?

wow...

[NSM]

Don't people play poorly at all levels ?

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
people play this poor on the 50$s?

wow...

[/ QUOTE ]
I see crap like that *all* the time, even as high as $100s and $200s. The ratio of decent players to bad ones is definitely different than $5s or $10s, but not by nearly as much as you would think, at least not on FT.

I think 1/2 pot is too small in general, and bigger bets *might* have got him to lay down the gutshot draw, but even that's not guaranteed. And frankly, you don't really *want* him to fold, you just want him to put in money without the proper odds and miss.

A bigger bet on the turn might be appropriate, though, since any straight draw picked up *huge* implied odds on you, whether they know it or not, and you're still not going to fold out most of the hands that are drawing either dead or to 1 out.

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't people play poorly at all levels ?

[/ QUOTE ]
hahahhaa

He played *so* bad on this week's High Stakes Poker.

guess it's easy to be a donk on a table full of pros with 500k each when you're a billionaire.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]