simple question

[Get_better_Baris]

Ok I don't know if this belongs in here but ill post it anyway.

Suppose the pot is 100 on the turn and on the turn I bet 100 on a 25% draw to improve to the winner. The question is: what amount do I need to bring back to break even when I hit that draw?(4 times 25? 3 times 25? Someother way to fig it out?)

Here another one. I have a 32% flush draw on flop. My oppenent bets 100 I call. Turn blanks he bets 150 I call after my draw has dropped to 20% now. What do I need to bring back to break even.(3.3 times 100 or 150 times 5? Or something else)
Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jay_shark]

Assume you know with certainty your opponent will call on the turn and river , then you need to know that you'll win an additional 200 on the river (it's a bit more than 3-1 because your outs doesn't always win)

Therefore you can expect to win $200 +200 = 400 while you only have to invest $100 on the turn .
In other words , you are getting 4-1 on your bet . However , you will hit 25 % of the time which is only 3:1 but like I said earlier , your outs don't always win .

[jay_shark]

Answer to second question :

How much is in the pot when you're drawing on the turn ?

Bottom line is that you need at least 4:1 odds for the call to be good . As in the previous response , if you call the 150 on the turn , the pot should offer you more than 150*4= 600 exluding your own 150 . The reason is , your flush won't always win and your outs aren't always clean . You may hit a flush on the river but this same card could give your opponent a full house .

[Get_better_Baris]

its hard to explain what i am getting at.i know pot odds and when to draw but i am having a hard time figuaring out ev wise if i am not making big enought bets on river to be making money in said situation over 100 trials.


if the pot is 100 on flop and i bet 100(with a 25% to win) then i turn i brick out.
the pot is now 300 and i bet 200 and he calls(my percentage to win is now 12%)
pot is now 700 on river. what do i need to bet on river to break even when i hit that draw and its the winner(i have invested 300 so far postflop with 25% chance to 12% chance to win).

basically i want to know is their a formula i could use to find out what i need to bring back to break even. like in that situation. i am 12% on turn i need to bring back 8.3(or so) times the money i invested on turn to break even. that would be 200 times 8.3 or am i wrong?

[jay_shark]

If you think you have a 12% chance of winning , then you need pot odds of (100-12)/12= 7.33:1 .

If you have an x % chance of winning , then take (100-x)/x to find out the pot odds you need to make the call .

Remember that if you're getting 7.33:1 on your call , this should take into account all the money you have to invest (the denominator ) and all the money you expect to win (the numerator ) and it should exceed these pot odds .

[Get_better_Baris]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you have a 12% chance of winning , then you need pot odds of (100-12)/12= 7.33:1 .

If you have an x % chance of winning , then take (100-x)/x to find out the pot odds you need to make the call .

Remember that if you're getting 7.33:1 on your call , this should take into account all the money you have to invest (the denominator ) and all the money you expect to win (the numerator ) and it should exceed these pot odds .

[/ QUOTE ]

i am a confused fish,lol
ok in my last example since i am betting. what do i have to bet on the river in the 700 pot to break even. maybe that will help me understand

[Get_better_Baris]

so i would need to bring back. 7.33 times 200. 1466(more or total pot?) to break even. (1466-700 in pot=766 divided by 2=383 i need to bet to break even. is that correct)?

[Get_better_Baris]

My math can't be right cause if I bet 1 dollar on the turn that would distort the numbers.lol I would need to break back 1 times 7.33/ minus the pot divided by2 according to my fish logic [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[jay_shark]

Suppose there is 400 in the pot and your opponent bets 150 on the turn ; you would need to call an extra 150 and assume that your hand always wins 12 % of the time on the river . That means you need to expect to win (100-12)/12= 7.333 X your 150 turn call .

On the river , there will be 700 in the pot and lets assume you've hit your gin card . In this case

(300+150) + the river bet must equal 150*7.3333 = 1099.99.

Let x be the amount from the river .

450+x = 1099.99
x=649.99

450=150*3
649=150*4.33333

1099.99= 150*7.333333

does this make sense ?

[Get_better_Baris]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose there is 400 in the pot and your opponent bets 150 on the turn ; you would need to call an extra 150 and assume that your hand always wins 12 % of the time on the river . That means you need to expect to win (100-12)/12= 7.333 X your 150 turn call .

On the river , there will be 700 in the pot and lets assume you've hit your gin card . In this case

(300+150) + the river bet must equal 150*7.3333 = 1099.99.

Let x be the amount from the river .

450+x = 1099.99
x=649.99

450=150*3
649=150*4.33333

1099.99= 150*7.333333

does this make sense ?

[/ QUOTE ] (300 + 150)


Where do the numbers (300+ 150) come from. I am sorry if I am not getting it.

What I really wanna know is if I am Betting them and he calls river everytime regardless if I hit or not and I only bet the river when i do hit the draw what do i need to bet to break even for the times I missed it and checked it down.