**** Official Patriots - Broncos Thread ****

[Kneel B4 Zod]

There was lots of early dicussion about this game in the Jags/Pats thread, so I figured I would start this thread up early.

some questions from Myrtle:

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For the sake of discussion.......

Denver's run defense will pretty much do a good job in stopping Pats running game.

Pats run defense (now healthy, jelled & much improved) will do a good job in stopping Broncos running game.

At that point it's passing offense vs. passing offense of both teams.

Who has the advantage then?


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I agree with Myrtle that each team is going to have trouble running in this game. a great running attack vs a great run defense, and an unproven/inconsistent running attack vs a good run defense.

Re: the passing attacks, Brady is obviously much better than Plummer, and the NE set of WR's/TE's is probably a wash against the Denver group. not a big advantage either way. the OL of Denver is better than the NE OL, but the Pats pass rush is much better than Denver's, which was one of the worst in the league.

The defensive backfield of the Pats is much improved, but the edge still needs to go with the Denver unit I think.

I think this matchup, all told, isn't a bad one for the Pats. Belicheck loves to be able to take away one thing from an offense, and if he can do that against the run this week, the Patriots will pull the upset.

[trying2learn]

i think you can boil this game down to almost one key stat. denver turnovers. denver holds on to the ball - they win. i know i'm over simplifing it a lot, but it's been a theme to their season.

and i also think you are understimating denver's running game at least just a little bit.

all told - this game figures to be the first great game of the playoffs so far. too bad the winner has to go to indy.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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and i also think you are understimating denver's running game at least just a little bit.

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Denver has a great running game. but I think the Pats run defense is as good as any in the NFL right now, and I think great run defenses tend to stop great run offenses.

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all told - this game figures to be the first great game of the playoffs so far. too bad the winner has to go to indy.

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Yup. OT, I think the 4 AFC teams are the 4 best teams in the NFL

[TheRover]

You're not giving nearly enough credit to the huge edge Denver's pass defense has over NE's pass defense.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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You're not giving nearly enough credit to the huge edge Denver's pass defense has over NE's pass defense.

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the Denver secondary is certainly better than NE's. the secondary is the weak spot on NE, but they are playing better than they have all season. as John Clayton mentions, they are basically playing w/ 4 cornerbacks back there, which has helped w/ pass coverage (and hurt run defense/tackling). that's why it's so critical for the Patriots to be able to stop the run w/ 7 guys, and leave 4-5 back for pass coverage.

also, when you rate the potential effectiveness of these units, I think it's important to compare the units they will be facing (ie Brady and his units vs Plummer and his). and I'll take Brady/Branch/Givens/Watson/Graham over Plummer/Smith/Lelie/Putzier/Alexander any day of the week, and this edge is enough to offset the talent edge the Broncos have in their defensive backfield.

basically, I see this as a pretty even matchup, w/ the Bronco's favored b/c of HFA

[trying2learn]

one of plummer's (actually by far his greatest) strengths is the roll out pass off of play action. NE's ability to defend that (stay at home when they are trying so desperatly to stop the run up front) will also be very interesting.

for me, the most intriguing coaching match up of the playoffs is shanahan/belichek.

[HDPM]

Should be a good game and should be close. I think the Broncos have their hands full and may well lose. All year doubters (like me) have been waiting for Plummer to have the bad game. He hasn't collapsed yet. But what better time than against a good experienced well-coached team in the playoffs? We'll see. And the fact the Patriots lost once to them this year bothers me. Different team now, but seems like its still hard to beat a good team twice in the same year for whatever reason.

[MacGuyV]

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Should be a good game and should be close. I think the Broncos have their hands full and may well lose. All year doubters (like me) have been waiting for Plummer to have the bad game. He hasn't collapsed yet. But what better time than against a good experienced well-coached team in the playoffs? We'll see. And the fact the Patriots lost once to them this year bothers me. Different team now, but seems like its still hard to beat a good team twice in the same year for whatever reason.

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Yes, I think people are vastly underestimating the Jake Plummer factor.
Does this remind anybody of 2001 when Kordell Stewart was an MVP candidate during the regular season? How can anybody NOT envision Plummer's season ending the same way? I know the Pats aren't as good as the last 2 years, but they're still better than the luckbox team that won it in 2001, especially Brady.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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Should be a good game and should be close. I think the Broncos have their hands full and may well lose. All year doubters (like me) have been waiting for Plummer to have the bad game. He hasn't collapsed yet. But what better time than against a good experienced well-coached team in the playoffs? We'll see. And the fact the Patriots lost once to them this year bothers me. Different team now, but seems like its still hard to beat a good team twice in the same year for whatever reason.

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here's a post I made in another thread about the differences betwene the first game and the upcoming game. granted, the Bronco's are also improved.

"Looking back on the first game, here are some notable differences then/now from the Patriots perspective

Offense:
Corey Dillon didn't play
Kevin Faulk didn't play
2 rookies, OG Mankins and OT Kazcur, were still in "thrown into the fire" mode. these guys are both playing well now, and were not back then. in fact, here is an interesting qoute from after the game:

''We knew where to attack," confirmed Denver defensive end Trevor Pryce. ''The [quarterback pressure] was planned. We were going at those two young guys [Nick Kaczur and Logan Mankins]. They knew it. The guard [Mankins], he couldn't deal. But give the tackle [Kaczur] credit. He's not bad."

the offense still scored 20 points, which isn't terrible. the real problem was...

Defense:
(front 7)

Richard Seymour didn't play
Tedy Bruschi didn't play
Rose Colvin wasn't being featured yet/Vrabel was still playing OLB. So, the starting ILB's were Chad Brown and Monty Beisel, 2 guys who don't figure to play much at all (if any) this time around. The Broncos ran for about 170 yards the first time around, which I really doubt will be possible this time.

(Backfield)
Disasterous Duane Starks (who gave up 2 huge plays this game) had yet to be injured/replaced by Ellis Hobbs

the rest of the young guys (Sanders, Samuel), similar to the OLineman, really weren't playing well yet
Plummer really shredded this unit, to the tune of 17-24, 262 yards,2 TD's, O int.

Although this unit is still the weakness of the Pats, I'm not sure if Plummer can be this effective again."

[HDPM]

Yeah, in my post I should have sain "it's a different team now and..." in tead of "but" I think the patriots are a lot stronger now.