My MLB Betting

[gtrunner57]

I also put 5.66 units on SEA -1.5 runs at +150

[gtrunner57]

Day one: +5.87u

[dudeimstoked]

is there a method to the madness of 10+ unit plays? That is insane. The largest unit i've ever played is 5 units and that was with some insane calculated 20% edge or something like that.

[gtrunner57]

yeah, I have come up with what my expected chance for a team to win a game or over/under to hit, and use half-Kelly bets off the percentages.

[rjp]

gtrunner, what did you estimate your edge to be? Be conservative if you have to. Once you start overbetting your bankroll will begin approaching 0!

[gtrunner57]

rjp,

Are you asking what my EV is for each play? Not sure what exactly you mean.

Picks for 7/14/07
100u

11.53u on HOU @ CHN under 10.5 at -125
7.11u on LAN @ SFN under 8.5 at -115
1.81u SLN @ PHI over 9.5 at -110
0.4u on HOU at +102
0.88u on SFN +1.5 at -145

[rjp]

Take HOU under 10.5. What is your expectation of winning this?

[gtrunner57]

I think the Houston game under 10.5 is 65.8% likely to happen.

also placed

15.92u on BOS at -220
8.51u on TOR @ BOS over 9.5 at -115
8.61u on BOS -1.5 at -115
5.68u on CLE at -220
9.55u on MIL at -190
6.85u on WAS @ FLO over 9 at -110
5.66u on SDN at -141
12.82u on SEA @ DET over 9 at -120
2.8u on MIN at -107

[gtrunner57]

Since the beginning of July, I've been predicting over/unders at a rate of 62.8%, which is actually quite a bit higher than my expected 57.5% prediction rate. Most of them fall within the 50-60% range as might be expected.

[jelly]

So you have cca 90% of your BR in action on cca 10 games. You are going to be broke in no time. Even if all the picks really are 60% (I guess they arent), a 3-7 night can happen easily and your BR shrinks to one third. Common sense says this is crazy.

One thing you do not realize is, that basic Kelly criterion does not work for simultaneous bets as you cannot resize. Say you lose your first two bets, the next one is now a larger part of BR than you wanted.

[ QUOTE ]
Since the beginning of July, I've been predicting over/unders at a rate of 62.8%, which is actually quite a bit higher than my expected 57.5% prediction rate. Most of them fall within the 50-60% range as might be expected.

[/ QUOTE ]

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