Early Week 3 NCAA discussion - Page 4

iggymcfly · #31 09-09-2007, 08:03 PM

FWIW, of your 6 picks, I'm on 2 already, I'm leaning strongly toward UW (going to bet them if I can get 3.5 or better on Matchbook), and I like the BYU pick as well. The only one I'd lean the other way on is Troy/OSU.

kmaldona · #32 09-09-2007, 08:45 PM

Here is some insight from someone from Goldandblack.com

CMU is 113th in Pass Efficiency Defense and by all accounts don't have much of a pass rush. Toledo's Opelt threw for 334 yards (25-41-0 2TD) against CMU. I would like to think that Painter and company can continue where they left off on Saturday and have another great day through the air, again putting CMU in a deep hole and to the point where they have to abandon their running game.

Purdue's probably a 3 TD+ favorite in this one. Early prediction is Purdue 52 - CMU 21.

kmaldona · #33 09-09-2007, 08:46 PM

Just got Purdue -20 for 3u

sanmarcosrun1 · #34 09-10-2007, 02:52 PM

Henne is officially out for michigan this week aganist ND. Interesting to see how this effects the line and bets layed down. Already thought Michigan was decent play at anything below -14 as their defense will be alot better against a non option style offense.

Edit: Lines have already fallen to around -8.

MicroBob · #35 09-10-2007, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Uhhh...Temple +30.5 v. UConn?

Did half their team get hurt or what?

Lines are open LDO

[/ QUOTE ]

It's down to 29.5.
I think UConn is a bit better than people think.

Temple is coming off yet another horrible loss...but this one was to freaking Buffalo and it was 42-7. Wow.

UConn can score against bad defenses.
45-14 and 38-0 over Duke and Maine. Obviously not the greatest competition in the world but likely no worse than Temple.

I'll gladly take UConn at 28-ish. At 29.5 I still lean them slightly but might take a pass.
I certainly wouldn't touch Temple here but evidently some people are.
Can these guys stop ANYONE from scoring?

MicroBob · #36 09-10-2007, 03:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Already thought Michigan was decent play at anything below -14

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa. That's pretty crazy.

sanmarcosrun1 · #37 09-10-2007, 03:23 PM

Not really microbob. These are the type of matchups michigan's defense was built for. Also Michigan has shown they can put up points against medicore to bad defenses. The number will probably go around -7 to -8 which is good value even with the starting QB out. Also people will read too much into Notre Dame Qbs effectiveness as he got alot of completions but they were almost all dump/screen routes.

MicroBob · #38 09-10-2007, 03:26 PM

Really liking Miami, Ohio +9 at home.

Huge rivalry game and is in Oxford.

Cincy is a bit over-valued now following their thumping of Oregon State on national TV. They really aren't as good as they looked imo.

Miami, Ohio is still a bit under-valued after only 2 wins last year. They are a better team now and brought in a new QB late for a nice comeback to force OT at Minnesota.

Note that even last year when they ended up with a terrible season they still played a lot of close games although they did lose by 14 vs. UC and by 28 the year before so that has me a bit concerned.
On the glass-half-full side you know this serves as a huge motivation for them in a game that is already a big rivalry.

Overall, I really think UC is only 6-7 points better than Miami at the most. So up in Oxford they should only be about 3-4 point faves.

A 9 point line for a matchup in Oxford meaning that UC is considered 11-12 points better indicates how popular they are after their big Oregon State win.

iggymcfly · #39 09-10-2007, 04:01 PM

Michigan has given up the following this year:

<u>vs. Appalachian State</u>
Yards per pass: 9.9
Yards per rush: 3.6

<u>vs. Oregon</u>
Yards per pass: 11.3
Yards per rush: 6.5

I don't think their weakness is facing an option attack, I think it's giving up too many big plays in the passing game due to schemes that leave the middle of the field too open. Notre Dame is a team who's only strengths offensively are passing the ball and play-calling so I'm guessing they should be able to find those seams in the middle of the field and hit them for some big gains. The matchups are actually one of the biggest reasons I like Notre Dame this week.

zstratt · #40 09-10-2007, 04:07 PM

When did bodog put there lines up last week?
I really like ND this, almost as much as I liked GT and PSU against them in the first two weeks. Michigan's defense is horrible and ND should be able to finally get some offense going. ND defense isn't as bad as it's played and without Henne they'll stack the box and make Hart beat them.