5/10 J6s

[Rico Suave]

Since I suck pretty bad, I am going to post more hands.

MP is fairly tight....pretty passive/predictable postflop
Button is TAG
CO is Loose, generally passive, goes to far...blah, blah.


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero?

Anyone want to convince me that folding is the play?

--Rico

[Niediam]

Fold preflop.

Raise the flop.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[car ramrod]

pf is close, 3/5 blind structure, right? if so, I'd call getting 5-1 immediate, and 7-1 implied.

I would raise the flop.

[W. Deranged]

Given that you have perfect relative position and you have the best hand often in a big pot, folding would not be good here.

Check-raise the flop and reevaluate.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that you have perfect relative position and you have the best hand often in a big pot, folding would not be good here.

Check-raise the flop and reevaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the correct answer.

[invictus33]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that you have perfect relative position and you have the best hand often in a big pot, folding would not be good here.

Check-raise the flop and reevaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]

This should be been gotten rid of PF, you're short handed with no high card value and needing 4 cards for the inside straight. This hand is not profitable enough to make up for the initial investment.

You may have the best hand on the flop, but it's very vulnerable. You have to read villain to be on over cards if not an over pair and with an LP in there you may not even get this heads up (which I'd want if I'm c/r-ing this). You're asking to get dominated here on what is a weak speculative hand against someone who is going to make you pay for it.

[Fat Nicky]

IMO, those that are saying to fold pre-flop play wayyy too tight from the blinds.

[W. Deranged]

Well, let's think about it with some numbers:

The pot is currently 9 small bets.

Against two overcards, we are going to win about 75% of the time.

So, what percentage of the time do we need the following to be true:

a) We get heads-up with the pre-flop raiser;

And,

b) The pre-flop raiser has two overcards?

Let's say that both are true with probability p.

To invest 2 sb into a 9 sb pot, we need to know that we have 22% equity. We know that when a) and b) are true, we are going to win about 75% of the time. So, our equity is at least equal to:

9 sb (pot size) * .75 * p

And we want this number to be at least equal to our 2 sb investment.

Setting 9*.75*p &gt; 2,

we find that p &gt; ~31%.

In other words, if we are confident that our opponent has overcards and we can get the hand heads-up 31% of the time or more, our play will likely be profitable. (We are assuming some things here, like the fact that our implied and reverse implied odds will more or less cancel out, which is a pretty good assumption).

The TAG pre-flop raiser here is significantly more likely to have overcards than an overpair here. Let's say he'll raise 99-AA, AK-AJ, ATs-A9s, KQ, KQs-KJs, QJs, JTs or something like that. That's 36 pair hands and about 104 non-pair hands. In other words, our opponent is probably almost 3 times as likely to have no pair as he is to have a pair. Let's estimate that our opponent has a pair about 30% of the time, and no pair about 70% of the time.

Then, we observe that p involves two components: the likelihood we'll get the hand heads-up (let's call this h) and the likelihood our opponent won't have a pair, which we've determined is about 70%. Then we just need to know that:

p = .7h &gt; .31

which reduces to:

h &gt; 44% or so.

So, if we know that we can get the hand heads-up even 44% of the time, then our play is almost certainly going to be profitable.

We should also consider that even if we don't get the hand heads-up, we'll win some of the time, and that even if our opponent has an overpair, some of the time we'll suck out and win. In other words, our check-raise doesn't even need to work even half the time to make it probably the right play.

[Zach6668]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, those that are saying to fold pre-flop play wayyy too tight from the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto. It's 5 handed. If you don't call this, are you folding your suited cards from the SB, when you should be completing? It's the same idea.

- Zach