Line for AJo with A on flop

[wems]

villian is 16/10/2

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $24.65
BTN: $34
SB: $34.65
BB: $24.75
Hero (UTG): $26.20
MP: $30.25

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, MP folds, CO calls $0.85, BTN folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($2.80) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.25</font>, CO calls $2.25, SB folds

Turn: ($7.30) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, CO calls $6

River: ($19.30) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ?</font>

[Profish2285]

Bet like 9 i think. There arent too many combos villain can have with an 8 in it from the action.

[wems]

bet 9 and fold to a raise?

[Profish2285]

I dont want to say b/f as your odds will be pretty damn good, but I guess yea, you have to. If you think about the other lines, I think b/f is best. C/c cant be too great as I am not confident villain bets for you with worse on this board. I guess you could argue c/f, but that just seems weak to be honest. I dont think many villains bet this river without the straight, but how many straight combos are there? The only reasonable ones I can see are 78 and possibly 89.

[ronitonline]

If villian calls a bet, hes raising IMO, i dont think villian played AQ/AK this way, this is 2pair / straight if he is calling the river aka hes raising.
I just c/c and hope he bluffs.

[Profish2285]

You think a villain with those stats has two pair or even a straight here very often?

[ronitonline]

I'd expect villian to play a draw or a set more often in this spot then I'd expect him to play a weaker ace, or play a stronger ace this weak.

[Profish2285]

The reason I feel c/c is weak here is because if he is only going to bet/raise with two pair and sets, then there really is no point in c/c at all. Then it is just a c/f, but again, that seems a little weak doesnt it?

[ronitonline]

You can bluff river if you want profish, but were talking about valuebetting. You can't valuebet this villian here, I dont see what he calls with. That doesnt mean those hands are his only holdings, you could bet here and im sure villian folds a lot of the time. However if you check, villian could be leading random missed draws or betting floats, or making tiny valuebeds with 1010 / JJ. I am not saying this is super likely, but if theres anyway you want more value from a worse hand, c/c is the way.

Arguably you can c/f vs this oppenent but betting i think is just dumb.

[catoandtonic]

Betting this river is a bluff, because it sure isn't for value. We will win this in showdown like 1 in 15 times, maybe. Villain has AQ quite often here.

I am not confident that our folding equity justifies firing a bluff on this river. I would check/fold. We are beat and it is time to give up. If villain does hold AT, then there is a decent chance he will check behind as well.

I dont think this is weak. I think this is just realizing that the very bottom of villains range ties your holding. 90+% of his range wins.