$50NL Facing river shove with boat., not as simple as it sounds.

FearNoArt · #1 07-10-2007, 12:12 AM

Only about 30 hands on villain at time of hand, he was running at 25/10/1. I was running around 16/8/1.6 . We tangled earlier in the session when we got all in on the turn and his 2 pair sucked out on river to beat my set of deuces. Nothing else notable, he's played very solid. Do you get away from this hand or is this an autocall ? BTW I've only been playing 6 max for a few weeks, used to being a Full ring nit at the $100's.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($45.15)
Hero ($50.70)
SB ($101.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3.

Turn: ($10.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7.
River: ($24.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $89.6 (All-In), Hero ?

sightless · #2 07-10-2007, 12:38 AM

in my experience this is never a hand you beat
i fold

Knuckles · #3 07-10-2007, 12:41 AM

You need to call 38 to win 63. This is a clear fold. You need to be good here > 66% of the time for a call to be +EV.

pr0crast · #4 07-10-2007, 01:25 AM

I'm not so sure about this fold. Hero has been betting at this like he has a serious hand, like a nine for the boat. If it is likely that hero has a 9, villain's river overbet makes ZERO sense when the T was a clear scare card to what hero is repping. If Hero is truly beat, overbetting on a scare card is a pretty retarded thing for a solid villain to do if he's trying to extract value. I think I call this 90% of the time. Curious to hear what others say.

Knuckles · #5 07-10-2007, 01:39 AM

The hero isn't repping just a 9. He is repping a 9 or an over-pair. I don't know why the villian woke up and decided to bet, but I have a hard time seeing a call here being +EV. This hand really looks like the villain has a seven, 99, or TT. With our limited read and low aggression factor, this opponent appears to play his hands very straightforward. This looks like he has the opponent figured for a big hand that he can crush and is going to put it all in to get paid off.

ocdscale · #6 07-10-2007, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You need to call 38 to win 63. This is a clear fold. You need to be good here > 66% of the time for a call to be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to go over that math again.
Hint: Calling $1 to win $1 only requires >50% equity to show a profit.

However, this is an easy fold here.
Sometimes this is a T or a 9 overplaying their hand, way more often than not this is a 7 thinking that you like your hand and will call a shove (thinking it's a bluff)

Knuckles · #7 07-10-2007, 01:48 AM

Crap you are right. Looks like I need to go to bed.

iFEARrewket! · #8 07-10-2007, 02:12 AM

Fold, clearly.
If this were party or everest though, insta call.

bored · #9 07-10-2007, 02:12 AM

I'd instantly call this and expect to see a T, but looks like that's a leak...

iwa · #10 07-10-2007, 04:50 AM

What T does the villian hold in this situation? I think it's more likely that hes overbetting the nuts.