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  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:24 AM
SeanC SeanC is offline
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Default Pre-flop exploitive play question

Hey,

I'm working out the corrective exploitive 3-bet range against ~5% PFR: 88+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo. I'm assuming the following (don't worry about correcting the ranges or assumptions, I'm just learning the method):

He’s folding 88, AJs and KQo, or 22 combinations to a 3-bet, or 23% of his range. Let’s say he’s calling with 99, TT, KQ and AQ, and 4-betting with JJ+ and AK. Therefore:

Thus, re-raising him 23% of the time will yield immediate profit.

Now, that much makes sense (correct me if I'm wrong there). My question is now how can I accurately raise him ~23% of the time? 23% of his PFR range would be about 20 combinations, but I can't simply choose 5 suited hands to RR him with because I'm now looking at the probability of him getting dealt a raising hand (~5%) and me getting dealt one of those 20 combinations (~1%), which would be .05*.01=.0005--and I need to be 3-betting more often than that. Is the answer to have 23% of my range be a 3-bet as then it would be .05*.23=.01%, what it needs to be?

And then, when you're going to re-raise him with weakish hands and know he's going to call with ~99, TT, AQ or KQ, what type of hands do you choose? Ax, Kx, Qx don't seem to make sense as they are often dominated. Suited connectors with a T or 9 run into set problems? I'd probably go with 87s and worse?
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  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 02:01 AM
DrVanNostrin DrVanNostrin is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

I'm not sure I understand exactly what you're saying. So let me know if I've missed something.

If your only profit is immediate and you always want him to fold you cannot profitably re-raise.

Think about a similar situation where an opponent makes an all-in pot size river bet as a bluff 10% of the time, the rest of the time he has you beat. 10% of the time it would be ideal to call, but given the information you have you can never call.
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  #3  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:05 AM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

yeah, i dont think there is any such thing as an exploitative reraise range unless they are folding a large % of their raise range to a rr, when the exploitative range would become atc. correct me if im wrong though people!
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  #4  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:10 AM
c double c double is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

Sean you must consider the % of of the time you actually have the raiser beat. I'm reraising an amount about equal to that, slightly more. But it's still way less than 23%. Reraise that much and those players are going to be calling you with 88 and worse. And no, don't make it a range of hands. You're better off rolling a dice than being that predictable.
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  #5  
Old 11-29-2007, 06:23 AM
Rek Rek is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

Can I buy your bot when it's finished? On second thoughts, no.
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  #6  
Old 11-29-2007, 01:17 PM
SeanC SeanC is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I understand exactly what you're saying. So let me know if I've missed something.

If your only profit is immediate and you always want him to fold you cannot profitably re-raise.

Think about a similar situation where an opponent makes an all-in pot size river bet as a bluff 10% of the time, the rest of the time he has you beat. 10% of the time it would be ideal to call, but given the information you have you can never call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I might be completely off but my thought was this:

I'm 3-betting for value with hands that play well against his tight range, such as AK, JJ+ and maybe AQ (I'm not even sure what the best way to determine this is). My AI range might be AK and QQ+, assuming he's willing to get it AI with AK or JJ+.

But if I'm only 3-betting those hands, aren't I leaving some value on the table as he will be folding out that 23% I mentioned earlier? Wouldn't I want to 3-bet with the obvious for-value hands but also 3-bet him 23% of the time with whatever to induce a fold?

I'm not exactly sure how pot odds play into this, and that would be where this theory falls apart against such a nit. $1-2 NL, he makes it $6 and I make it 18. I'm risking 18 to win 9, which is 1-2 odds and therefore I'd have to win that 9 66% of the time to break even, right? If he only folds 23% of the time, I'm obviously not profitable here. I might, however, be able to recoup some value from his calling range though (when he calls with KQs or AQ and misses and folds to a c-bet), but I'd have to run the math to see if I'd even come close.

This type of thing obviously starts to make more sense when you're up against less nitty players, but I just want to make sure my method is sound.
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  #7  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:01 PM
SeanC SeanC is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

[ QUOTE ]
Sean you must consider the % of of the time you actually have the raiser beat. I'm reraising an amount about equal to that, slightly more. But it's still way less than 23%. Reraise that much and those players are going to be calling you with 88 and worse. And no, don't make it a range of hands. You're better off rolling a dice than being that predictable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, I just think you may be leaving value on the table. If the OPP starts calling/RRing you more lightly, you adjust accordingly--tighten up your own range. First impressions go far and if you are beating on someone with 3-bets, the resulting situation can become very easily exploited.

On the other hand, I've had a fair amount of OPPs that simply don't know how to respond to merciless 3-bets. They are too weak to stick it in light and therefore either call light and wonder what to do next or just fold too much.

Then again, this oscillation of exploitive strategies does indicate there will be an optimal mixed strategy, but I'm not too sure how to determine that...gonna have to mess around with the math I guess...
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  #8  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:03 PM
SeanC SeanC is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

[ QUOTE ]
Can I buy your bot when it's finished? On second thoughts, no.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't ever bother creating one even if I knew how...and yeah, trying to learn the math/game theory definitely means creating a bot.
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  #9  
Old 11-29-2007, 06:24 PM
oxiej oxiej is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

in micro limits i think 3-betting light definatly is profitable. cause you can polarize villains range so much.

if villain calls your 3-bet your often up vs AQs+, TT+(jj+)

and if they reraise you can instafold unless you got AA or KK.

i often see villains think you have to have AA if you 3-betn cause noone does that without AA.

so i find it really profitable to 3-bet my rather loose opponents alot, and see them fold like 50% of the time.
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  #10  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:09 PM
soop soop is offline
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Default Re: Pre-flop exploitive play question

Here's my thinking: 23% is either folding too much or folding too little. (I have no idea what the acutal number is, it depends on postflop play and other stuff)

If he's folding too much, you should bluff sometimes. It might be with any two if he folds enough or it might be just be with hands that have more than a certain amount of equity against his calling range.

If he's folding too little, dont bluff, just raise for value.
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